Emma Raducanu famously won last year’s US Open at 400/1. Our Andy Schooler tries to unpick the 2022 puzzle – and he does have a 125/1 shot for you.
US Open betting tips: Women's outright
1.5pt e.w. Caroline Garcia at 17/1 (Unibet)
1pt e.w. Jessica Pegula at 28/1 (bet365, Coral, Ladbrokes)
1pt e.w. Belinda Bencic at 28/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes, Betfred)
1pt e.w. Daria Kasatkina at 40/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
0.5pt e.w. Jelena Ostapenko at 125/1 (Sky Bet)
US Open
- Flushing Meadows, New York, USA (outdoor hard)
After Emma Raducanu’s famous triumph of 12 months ago, I’m guessing you’ve come here to be told who’s going to this year’s US Open at odds of 400/1?
Well, we aim to please.
A look down the Oddschecker grid actually only shows one player at a top price of 400s and that’s Daria Saville, who you may also know by her maiden name, Gavrilova.
She’s actually not the worst bet in the world, coming into this event in good form – at time of writing she’s due to contest the WTA final in Granby.
Of course, in reality, the chance of another stunning surprise, a la Raducanu, who became the only qualifier to win a Grand Slam, is slim indeed.
Your 2021 #USOpen champion...
— Amazon Prime Video Sport (@primevideosport) September 11, 2021
Britain's @EmmaRaducanu has the trophy in her hands 🙌🏆 pic.twitter.com/Pa1PwOeNrv
That said, this does look wide open.
It’s hard to think of another Grand Slam draw which has offered so many players a genuine chance of glory with only two women priced up shorter than 16/1.
I believe both of those are worth taking on with there being a strong chance of a decent-priced winner, albeit probably not at 400/1.
I’ll run through the draw in quarter-by-quarter fashion to discuss who I think is worth backing…
First quarter
The top section is led by title favourite and world number one Iga Swiatek.
Given the Pole’s 37-match winning streak only came to an end last month, it’s hard for the bookies to make anyone else their market leader but she is worth opposing.
Since that incredible run – the best on the WTA tour since Martina Hingis’ 1997 effort – ended at Wimbledon, Swiatek has played three tournaments and has failed to go beyond the quarter-finals at any of them.
She’s certainly been a long way off the form which carried her to hardcourt titles in Indian Wells and Miami in the US earlier this season and that’s now reflected in her odds.
Swiatek went off odds-on for the French Open (on her favourite clay surface) and was still only 8/5 going into Wimbledon. Now she’s available at 9/2.
Some will see value in that price but I’m not among that group and one of the reasons for that is the controversial choice of balls for this event.
Tournament officials have angered many of the female players by choosing a different ball to the one the men will use. That is not unheard of but it seems somewhat bizarre that the women’s ‘Regular Duty’ balls actually say on their tin that they are ‘ideal for clay and indoor surfaces’.
In practical terms, the complaint is that the balls ‘fly’ more and are more difficult to control – in a similar way to how balls perform at a higher altitude.
It’s also worth noting that these balls have been used on the tour once already this year – in Dubai.
Therefore I can’t help but think there could be a spot of value in backing the champion at that event, JELENA OSTAPENKO.
The 16th seed is a potential fourth-round opponent for Swiatek and interestingly the Latvian leads their head-to-head 3-0.
Few players have more power in their game, with Ostapenko capable of crushing the ball from the baseline and hitting winners past most players.
Her problem was long been consistency – it is the type of game which will always produce plenty of unforced errors and on the days when they outnumber the winners too much, it’s always going to be a struggle.
But the fact is Ostapenko’s game has carried her to five WTA titles in her career, including the 2017 French Open.
She’s also been to the semi-finals of Wimbledon and while her US Open record is less impressive (she’s not played the last two editions), she is far from averse to hardcourts, as she showed in Dubai.
Recent form is bit patchy but there’s enough to suggest she’s ready to deliver in New York.
Ostapenko made the last 16 at Wimbledon before losing to the red-hot Tatjana Maria 7-5 in the third.
On her return to the hardcourts in Toronto she again lost 7-5 in the decider to Alison Riske, while in Cincinnati it was eventual semi-finalist Madison Keys who got the better of her.
If you feel she may be a bit undercooked it’s worth mentioning that Ostapenko has been winning many doubles matches of late so there should be no concern about her being bedded in on this surface.
There’s always risk involved in backing Ostapenko but at 125/1 that’s certainly factored into the price.
In my mind, she definitely fits the bill as someone who could ‘do a Raducanu’ if she finds the groove and is worth a small punt.
I also like the chances of JESSICA PEGULA in this section.
While Serena Williams’ farewell will garner plenty of headlines, it is Pegula who represents the home nation’s best chance of success at this year’s US Open.
She’s enjoyed an impressive season, as reflected by her seeding of eight here.
Pegula began the year with a run to the quarter-finals of the Australian Open where Maria Sakkari was among her victims, before making the last four in Miami.
On the clay, she was runner-up in Madrid and quarter-finalist at Roland Garros, losing to the eventual champion at both events.
That sequence has continued on the North American hardcourts with Pegula beaten by Simona Halep in the Toronto semis and Caroline Garcia in the last eight of Cincinnati.
In short, it usually takes a good player to defeat the US number one and she looks capable to mounting a title challenge at 28/1.
Second quarter
Like so much of the draw, this looks very open.
It’s a section led by fourth seed Paula Badosa, a player I like but one who hasn’t really pushed on this season.
It’s been far from disastrous – she’s won one more match than Pegula so far – but I had expected more from the Spaniard, who arrives on a three-match losing streak. Neither have injury issues helped with Badosa retiring three times already in 2022.
Aryna Sabalenka, a semi-finalist here 12 months ago, has the potential to go deep but, like Ostapenko, her game can be very hit and miss. The difference is she’s no bigger than 20/1.
Wimbledon winner Elena Rybakina is also in this section, as is the defending champ Raducanu, who showed some signs of her 2021 form in Cincinnati recently but the fact remains she’s not won three matches in a row since she left Flushing Meadows with the trophy. She’ll need to win seven here.
Instead, I think BELINDA BENCIC may be worth backing at 28/1.
The Olympic champion isn’t the flashiest player but does have the potential to go under the radar as a result.
Bencic has enjoyed New York in the past, last year making the quarter-finals and showing she’s capable in these slick conditions, before running into the Raducanu juggernaut. In 2019 she went a step further, again losing the eventual champion, Bianca Andreescu, in the last four.
The Swiss has put together and impressive 7-4 record against top-10 stars over the past year and while there are good players in this section, as I’ve already explained none is to be truly feared.
Admittedly recent form could be better, a quarter-final run in Toronto being her best during the North American summer swing, but it’s notable that earlier in the season she reached the semis in Miami, an event also played on Laykold courts.
US Open women’s singles draw pic.twitter.com/fjvCkZzo5I
— Michal Samulski (@MichalSamulski) August 25, 2022
Third quarter
This is quite a puzzle to solve.
Second favourite Simona Halep is the player the bookies expect to make the semi-finals – that’s largely based on her Toronto title of a few weeks ago.
But she followed that by withdrawing mid-tournament in Cincinnati with a leg issue.
While probably precautionary, it’s hardly encouraging to those thinking of backing her at 8/1.
In terms of seeding, it’s actually Maria Sakkari who is due to make the last four but she’s become something of a perennial bridesmaid, losing in two Grand Slam semi-finals last season, as well as at the WTA Finals. She has won just a single WTA title in her career which is pretty staggering for a player ranked in the top three.
After a decent start to the season, form has also dipped with defeat in 13 of her last 25 matches.
Cincy semi-finalist and huge ball-basher Madison Keys is also here, as are French Open runner-up Coco Gauff and Beatriz Haddad-Maia, both of whom have won plenty of matches this season.
But preference is for CAROLINE GARCIA.
She was highly impressive when winning in Cincinnati where conditions are also quick.
It was her third title in just two months and she’s now won 26 of her last 30 matches. During that run she’s beaten top-10 stars Swiatek, Sakkari, Pegula and Sabalenka.
That’s form which you simply have to take notice of and while there’s certainly an argument to be made about the value in her price having disappeared, I’m still tempted enough to back Garcia at around the 16/1 mark.
Her form is the best of the field coming into a wide-open event and she should be supported accordingly.
Fourth quarter
This is the quarter of Serena Williams, arguably the greatest player of all-time.
With this being the last tournament of her remarkable career, focus will rightly be on her as long as she stays in, although it’s hard to envisage that being longer than the first few days.
Even if she manages to defeat Danka Kovinic first up, she’ll then likely have to play second seed Anett Kontaveit.
Serena Williams will open with Danka Kovinic in her final US Open. pic.twitter.com/cSjGuZIHKj
— US Open Tennis (@usopen) August 25, 2022
Remember the 40-year-old only returned from a 12-month injury absence at Wimbledon and has since lost three of her four singles matches.
Yes, you only have to look back a year to realise miracles do happen and it would be fantastic to see the six-time campion put one last run together but in reality backing Williams at 50/1 looks fanciful in the extreme.
Kontaveit’s form actually does offer Williams some hope, while Wimbledon runner-up Ons Jabeur has also struggled for wins in recent weeks. Both look opposable.
Perhaps Leylah Fernandez can recreate her run to the final of last season but the player I prefer here is DARIA KASATKINA.
She’s got a decent 41-19 record for the year to date, making the semis or better on six occasions, one of which was at Roland Garros where she lost to eventual champion Swiatek.
More recently she beat Rybakina, Badosa and Sabalenka en route to victory at the strong San Jose tournament and at time of writing she had won nine of her last 11 matches going into Saturday’s final in Granby.
History suggests it’s not a good thing to go well in the week before a Slam but what I’d point out here is that Kasatkina was in need of the wins having lost early in both Toronto and Cincinnati.
Yes, it has the potential to work against her, but she’s probably now played almost the ideal number of matches across the last month.
She’s 40/1 for the title which looks a fair, each-way price.
Posted at 1520 BST on 26/08/22
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