Andy Schooler previews Tuesday’s quarter-finals at the US Open in New York.
Tennis tips: Today's US Open best bets
1pt Frances Tiafoe to beat Alex Michelsen 3-0 at 7/2 (bet365)
Frances Tiafoe v Alex Michelsen (not before 1800 BST)
There are four quarter-finals across the two singles draws on Tuesday and each of them has a favourite with a 100 per cent record against their particular opponent.
Of those favourites, Tiafoe is considered the most vulnerable – he’s a best price of 7/10 for victory over his compatriot.
Both men are playing well, with Michelsen yet to lose a set. He’s lost his serve only three times in the four rounds thus far with his marquee win coming against the in-form Brandon Nakashima.
But, after an opening-round struggle, Tiafoe has also breezed through his last three rounds in straight sets, with Sunday’s victory over former champion Daniil Medvedev impressive.
His forehand was excellent and the serve in good working order. When he plays like that, you can see that Tiafoe does have the potential to become a Grand Slam champion – hopefully it will be this week given we’re on outright at 66/1!
Those with such a betslip in their possession have no real need to get involved again but I’m tempted to get with the higher-ranked player, who is proven at this level, and that’s Tiafoe.
And while 7/10 is a decent-enough price, the way I’m going to side with the two-time semi-finalist is via the set betting.
Tiafoe is up at 7/2 to repeat his Medvedev result and win in straight sets. I think that’s big.
Going back to the original point about 100 per cent records, Tiafoe has won both previous meetings in straights – the first on a Dallas hardcourt in 2024 and the most recent on the Houston clay last season.
He’s broken the Michelsen serve nine times in those four sets which suggests he is able to get a good read on it.
Those strong serving numbers have been the platform for Michelsen’s success so far in New York but I do wonder what will happen if he does fall behind.
His season record suggests it would be a struggle from a set down – Michelsen has lost 15 of his last 16 matches in which he dropped the first set. Nine of those have come in straight sets.
Ben Shelton v Carlos Alcaraz (approx 0200 BST, Wed)
My pre-tournament theory that, after more than four months out injured, Alcaraz would have too much rust to shake off to win the US Open is looking rather ragged.
While he did drop a set in the second round, the reigning champion has largely cruised through the draw to this point and Sunday’s demolition of Tommy Paul really made the bookies’ antepost favourite assessment look on very solid ground.
If you read my preview of that one, you’ll know I expected Paul to give him a proper test but his serve was under near-constant threat and Alcaraz was very secure behind his own deal.
There was little sign of rust as Alcaraz dominated from the baseline. There were surprisingly few drop shots in that contest as the Spaniard used his extra power to clean up, although I’d expect Shelton to be dragged in a bit more here – Alcaraz will have the advantage when it comes to getting around the court.
Shelton has come through a tough draw so far with flying colours and victories over Tallon Griekspoor, Hubert Hurkacz, Denis Shapovalov and Stefanos Tsitsipas look to have set him up nicely for this ultimate test of his title credentials.
The American has been very good during the hardcourt swing, winning the Masters title in Montreal, with his return game having certainly improved.
It’s not hard to make a case for him to at least test Alcaraz here and I can see how Shelton will be able to string enough together to claim a set – Alcaraz to win and both players to win a set at around 11/8 makes some sense.
However, it’s a case of once bitten, twice shy, for me.
Alcaraz was way too good for Paul – and way better than I expected him to be. If he’s at the same level again for this one, I don’t see Shelton being able to respond a great deal.
The pair have met three times before with Shelton winning only one set. The two hardcourt matches have both been settled in straights.
For the record, Alcaraz is 33/20 to win this 3-0. I’m sure that will interest some, but I’m going to sit this one out.
Posted 22:00 BST on 07/09/2026
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