The fourth round of the US Open gets under way on Sunday – Andy Schooler picks out his best bets.
Tennis tips: Today's US Open best bets
1.5pts over 35.5 games in Tommy Paul v Carlos Alcaraz at 5/6 (BOYLE Sports)
1pt Ben Shelton to beat Stefanos Tsitsipas and both players to win a set at 6/4 (BOYLE Sports)
Tommy Paul v Carlos Alcaraz
Fair play to Carlos Alcaraz.
After his four months out injured, he’s safely negotiated the first week of the US Open and in pretty comfortable fashion with only one set dropped.
However, with all due respect to Roman Safiullin, Jaime Faria and Yibing Wu, the level of opposition has not been out of the top drawer. Or even the second for that matter.
Things change now with Tommy Paul more than capable of causing every player in the game problems.
Indeed, he has done so for Alcaraz in the past, twice beating him, although a recent win surge in their head-to-head has the Spaniard 6-2 up (he’s won the last five).
Paul’s two wins both came during the North American hardcourt season and I’m really interested to see if he’s the man who will expose some of the Alcaraz rust which I remain convinced has to be there to some extent.
He dealt with Alexander Bublik’s power and unpredictability in the last round and while Alcaraz is likely to be more consistent, Paul is able to hang in with the best from the baseline, as he showed when defeating Alex Zverev in Cincinnati last month.
I’m not saying Paul is winning this, although I wouldn’t completely rule it out at 9/2.
However, I do feel he’s got potential in some of the sub-markets and the one I’m going to recommend is the total-games one – over 35.5 being the call.
Ben Shelton v Stefanos Tsitsipas
This has the potential to be a cracker under the lights of Arthur Ashe Stadium.
These are two players clearly in good form – one carrying plenty of expectations, the other producing a strong run that barely anyone expected.
Shelton came into the tournament among the favourites after he title success in Montreal. While I felt he had a strong chance, I was put off backing him in my outright preview by a tough draw.
The American has come through a series of tricky encounters in week one, although he’s dropped a set against each of Tallon Griekspoor, Hubert Hurkacz and Denis Shapovalov.
Tsitsipas, meanwhile, has upset both Arthur Fils and Jiri Lehecka en route to this stage, with the former world number three clearly showing signs that he’s climbing the ladder back towards the top of the sport after an injury-hit 2025 when a back problem seemed to constantly bother him.
The Greek won the pair’s only previous meeting, which came in Cincinnati in 2023 when there was not a single break point created.
However, I’m not expecting such a serve-dominated match this time with a key feature of both players’ recent success being their improvement on return.
That aspect of Shelton’s game really picked up during his Montreal title run, while Tsitsipas has broken five times in every round so far in New York – much better than some of his runs when he was regularly one of the weakest returners during his time in the world’s top 10.
While I think Tsitsipas will be competitive here, I do see Shelton being the man to progress.
He’s coped well with those first week challenges and I believe they will help him be ready for this contest.
While I considered Tsitsipas on the game handicap, where he gets a 4.5 start, the bet I’m putting up is for Shelton to win and both players to win a set – one that’s landed in all three of his matches so far.
Posted 22:35 BST on 06/09/2026
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