Tennis tips: Today's US Open best bets
1pt over 1.5 tie-breaks in Alex Zverev v Ben Shelton at 11/8 (bet365)
1pt Shelton to serve the most double faults at 9/4 (bet365)
Alex Zverev v Ben Shelton (1900 BST)
No American has won the US Open men’s singles since Andy Roddick did so in 2003 – I actually remember tipping him up on this very site back then.
Yes, it really is that old and, yes, so am I!
Ben Shelton will look to end the host nation’s drought on Arthur Ashe Stadium on Sunday and, in many ways, it feels like now could well be the time.
He was a form horse coming in, having won the Masters title in Montreal where he showed significant improvement with his return game.
The 23-year-old was handed a tough route through the draw but he’s passed every test with flying colours thus far, dumping out some strong players, most notably ante-post title favourite Carlos Alcaraz in the quarter-finals.
It’s not been easy – Shelton will set a new record for most sets taken to win a Slam if he beats Zverev in five sets – but no-one can say he’s not battle-hardened.
Shelton is the slight underdog at 13/10 and given the way he’s playing you have to at least give that some consideration.
However, the big issue for me if that the opponent is far from hand-picked. In fact, one suspects Shelton would prefer to be facing virtually anyone else.
Zverev has won all five previous meetings, three of which have come on hardcourts, and lost just one set in those matches (the very first).
Shelton has failed to break serve in the most recent four (all played in 2025), creating just a single break point, which suggests he’s had massive problems dealing with the Zverev serve.
As you’d imagine, the other numbers are bad too.
Zverev has won 84% of first serve points, Shelton only 74%. And the gap is even bigger on second-serve points won – Zverev leads 60-42.
That suggests Shelton is going to have to go big on second serves and so I think there’s some value in backing him for most double faults at 9/4, a bet which has landed in two of their last three matches (the other was a tie).
Such clear issues have to be a big concern for Shelton backers, even given his return improvements.
This is also his first Grand Slam final and you never know how a player will react to that.
In contrast, Zverev is full of this sort of experience now. Crucially, he won Roland Garros this year to lift a huge weight from his shoulders. And, having claimed his maiden Slam, he now reached the following two major finals.
After a shaky start in New York with his first two matches going the distance, he’s won the last four rounds without losing a set and his serve has been largely impenetrable.
Admittedly, he was a tad fortunate to get through Karen Khachanov 3-0 in Friday’s semi-final; the Russian was arguably the better player across sets two and three but lost both on a tie-break.
Khachanov really went for his shots – until he got tight in the breakers – and provided something of a template for Shelton, who possesses great power in his own forehand. It’s a shot he’ll really need to let rip on, one suspects.
In that semi-final, Zverev was really struggling to make an impact on the Khachanov serve, although he also managed to hold pretty comfortably himself – he’s up at 92% holds for the tournament which makes Shelton’s strong 88% figure look shabby by comparison.
And that’s a nod to how I see this panning out.
I expect a serve-dominated affair where break chances are at a premium.
While Zverev has dominated in the past, I’d suggest Shelton’s form means he’s playing some of the best tennis of his career. He can certainly reduce the gap.
Maybe he’ll close it altogether, although I’m not prepared to back him.
Instead, turning to the markets relating to the serve, at least in some extent, make sense to me.
A first-set tie-break is a 7/4 shot, something I considered but am a bit put off by the chance of early nerves which could lead to a sloppy early break.
Instead, two tie-breaks in the match looks a better play.
This landed in Zverev’s semi-final when breaks of serve were few and far between, as well as in his second-round clash with Quentin Halys, another big server.
I know the 11/8 won’t be for everyone but it makes sense to me.
The total-games market is another option for those thinking of long, tight sets, although a line set as high as 42.5 always seems to be rather off-putting to me, no matter who the players involved are.
- Preview posted 0745 BST on 13/09/2026
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