Andy Schooler previews Saturday’s US Open women’s singles final between Aryna Sabalenka and Elena Rybakina.
Tennis tips: Today's US Open best bets
1pt Elena Rybakina to beat Aryna Sabalenka at 6/5 (General)
Aryna Sabalenka v Elena Rybakina (2100 BST)
The top two seeds will contest Saturday’s US Open women’s final but the fact that they will do so highlights the perils of tennis betting.
Sabalenka’s form was poor coming into this tournament and therefore punters were asked how much weight to give to her superb record at the hardcourt Grand Slams – this will be her eighth successive final in such events, a new record.
A lot, it turns out, was the answer required. Class, it seems, is indeed permanent.
As for Rybakina, anyone who saw her limp away from the court in Cincinnati must have found it hard to envisage her being involved in this match.
As a result, I backed the two players who lost in the semi-finals, but I’m trying not to dwell on that and instead looking forward to what should be a cracking contest.
It will be a rematch of January’s Australian Open final, won in three sets by Rybakina. However, she has lost the two matches the pair have played since (in Indian Wells and Miami).
Overall, Sabalenka holds a 10-7 advantage on the head-to-head, although it’s all square at 7-7 on hardcourts.
Frankly, I’m finding it hard to call. So are the bookies, with Sabalenka – the two-time defending champion – a marginal favourite at 3/4 and Rybakina a best price of 6/5. She had been a 29/20 shot in Melbourne.
As ever, Sabalenka will bring plenty of power to the court, with both her serve and booming groundstrokes capable of punching holes in any opponent.
Jessica Pegula found that out in Thursday’s semi-final, the American later describing Sabalenka’s level as “insanely high”.
However, Linda Noskova did manage to live with the Sabalenka game in their quarter-final – the only time the Belarusian has lost a set in New York – and we know from previous encounters that Rybakina also has the ability to absorb the power and give back off her own racquet.
Her serve is arguably the best in the game and she’s held onto it an impressive 89% of the time in the tournament so far (Sabalenka’s figure is 84%).
In the head-to-head, Rybakina holds the advantage in both first and second serve points won, as well as return points won. Sabalenka has, however, been better at breaking opponents’ serve during this US Open, doing so an impressive 40% of the time (to Rybakina’s 33%).
Speaking ahead of the final, Rybakina mentioned the need to "bring my best serve" but also "make the right decisions in the right moment because most of the times it's tight, tight score. This is where the decision makes a difference."
The suggestion that this contest could be decided by just a handful of key points is one I can certainly agree with.
Sabalenka says she is "ready for whatever it's going to take to get the win" but my concern for her is that we’ve seen her get flustered in big matches in the past and she’s not always been able to recover when she’s hit a blip.
A recent example came at this year’s French Open in June where she looked home and hosed against Diana Shnaider, only to completely crumble and lose the deciding set to love. And, there are others, including Grand Slam finals.
It’s that aspect which is pushing me towards the calmer Rybakina, who arrives at this match with the bonus of knowing that even if she loses she will still become world number one for the first time on Monday.
In what looks like it could be a genuine 50-50 match, taking 6/5 about one player seems the right call from a punting perspective.
To highlight how tight some of their matches have been, it’s worth mentioning that 10 of their 17 previous meetings have been three-set affairs.
It’s 5/4 that another goes the distance here and I wouldn’t pout anyone off backing that either.
For the record, a 2-1 Rybakina win – which is what occurred in Melbourne – is a 4/1 chance.
Posted 08:20 BST on 12/09/2026
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