Tennis betting tips: WTA Finals preview and best bets

Tennis betting tips: ATP Tour

2pts Aryna Sabalenka to win the title at 5/2 (Coral, Ladbrokes)

1pt Amanda Anisimova to win the title at 11/2 (General)

1.5pts Jessica Pegula to qualify for the SFs at 13/8 (Coral, Ladbrokes)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

WTA Finals

• Riyadh, Saudi Arabia (indoor hard)

The showpiece event of the women’s tennis tour gets under way on Saturday in Saudi Arabia.

If that seems slightly off, it’s time to think of the money – US$15.5million is the total prize fund with the champion potentially walking away with more than $5million.

The winner will need to go unbeaten to do that – remember this is a tournament at which you can afford to lose a match (or even two) but still emerge victorious.

That’s because of the round-robin format in use which sees the eight-player field split into top groups of four with the top two in each progressing to the semi-finals.

Before we look at the qualifiers in details, it’s worth considering that Riyadh is at a significant altitude. They are around 600m above sea level this week and that means the balls will fizz through the thin, dry air that bit faster.

Last season, when the event was first played at the King Saud University Indoor Arena, conditions were considered faster than the Asian events which preceded it, although it was far from lightning quick.

Coco Gauff emerged as the champion on that occasion and this is an event in which the favourite has a pretty poor record.

The roll of honour is also littered with first-time winners in recent years – the last multiple winner was Serena Williams, who won the last of her five WTA Finals titles in 2014.

That is bad news for Gauff and Iga Swiatek, the two previous winners in this year’s field.

STEFFI GRAF GROUP

Aryna Sabalenka

• Best odds – Title: 12/5; Group: evens; Qualify: 2/7
• Race position: 1st
• 2025 win-loss record: 59-11
• 2025 win-loss record v top 10: 11-4
• 2025 titles: 4 – US Open, Madrid, Miami, Brisbane
• WTA Finals record: 8-8 (24 SF, 23 SF, 22 RU, 21 Gp)
• Recent form: SF Wuhan
• Record v group opponents:
  Gauff – overall: 5-6; indoor hard: 1-1; all hard: 4-4; 2025: 1-1
  Pegula – overall: 8-3; indoor hard: 1-0; all hard: 5-3; 2025: 2-1
  Paolini – overall: 5-2; indoor hard: 2-0; all hard: 4-1; 2025: 2-0

It’s hard to argue that the world number one isn’t the best hardcourt player in the field. She certainly has the best record on the surface in 2025 (35-6) and you have to go back to 2022 to find the last time she didn’t make the final of one of the hardcourt Grand Slams. The hard-hitting Belarusian also has a fine record against the elite this season, going 11-4 against her fellow top-10 stars. Throw in some good performances at altitude in Madrid over the years and she looks the one to beat. The main concern would be her record in this event – she’s is just 8-8 across her four previous appearances, albeit she has made the knockout stage in each of the last three. Keep putting yourself in the position and all that…

Coco Gauff

• Best odds – Title: 5/1; Group: 11/5; Qualify: 8/15
• Race position: 3rd
• 2025 win-loss record: 47-14
• 2025 win-loss record v top 10: 9-5
• 2025 titles: 2 – French Open, Wuhan
• WTA Finals record: 6-6 (24 W, 23 SF, 22 Gp)
• Recent form: W Wuhan, SF Beijing
• Record v group opponents:
  Sabalenka – overall: 6-5; indoor hard: 1-1; all hard: 4-4; 2025: 1-1
  Pegula – overall: 3-4; indoor hard: 1-0; all hard: 3-2; 2025: 1-0
  Paolini – overall: 3-3; indoor hard: 0-0; all hard: 3-1; 2025: 1-3

The defending champion won her second Grand Slam title at Roland Garros earlier this year and she arrives in Riyadh off the back of another significant title success in Wuhan where she beat group foes Jessica Pegula and Jasmine Paolini. Still, her game does have a tendency to break down – the forehand and the serve usually the weak links – and when that happens even her renowned fighting spirit isn’t always enough to pull her through.

Jessica Pegula

• Best odds – Title: 20/1; Group: 15/2; Qualify: 13/8
• Race position: 5th
• 2025 win-loss record: 51-21
• 2025 win-loss record v top 10: 3-5
• 2025 titles: 3 – Bad Homburg, Charleston, Austin
• WTA Finals record: 4-6 (24 Gp, 23 RU, 22 Gp)
• Recent form: RU Wuhan, SF Beijing, RU BJK Cup Finals (w/USA, 1-2)
• Record v group opponents:
  Sabalenka– overall: 3-8; indoor hard: 0-1; all hard: 3-5; 2025: 1-2
  Gauff – overall: 4-3; indoor hard: 0-1; all hard: 2-3; 2025: 0-1
  Paolini – overall: 5-1; indoor hard: 0-1; all hard: 3-1; 2025: 0-1

A tally of only three top-10 wins in 2025 is the lowest such figure in this field, although she has also played the fewest such matches. That’s still a worry when facing an elite draw such as this, although Pegula has positives too. She actually holds a winning record against two of her three group opponents, while confidence will have been boosted by her recent form in Asia where she beat Sabalenka en route to the final in Wuhan. Should not be written off.

Jasmine Paolini

• Best odds – Title: 25/1; Group: 10/1; Qualify: 21/10
• Race position: 8th
• 2025 win-loss record: 46-18
• 2025 win-loss record v top 10: 5-7
• 2025 titles: 1 - Rome
• WTA Finals record: 1-2 (24 Gp)
• Recent form: SF Ningbo, SF Wuhan, QF Beijing, W BJK Cup Finals (w/ITA, 3-0)
• Record v group opponents:
  Sabalenka – overall: 2-5; indoor hard: 0-2; all hard: 1-4; 2025: 0-2
  Gauff – overall: 3-3; indoor hard: 0-0; all hard: 1-3; 2025: 3-1
  Pegula – overall: 1-5; indoor hard: 1-0; all hard: 1-3; 2025: 1-0

Paolini will fight to the bitter end but she may struggle in Riyadh. Her only title of 2025 came on the clay of Rome and, like many over the years, she would doubtless prefer to be playing this event on the red dirt. Instead, she must overcome a 3-10 hardcourt record against her group opponents, although she will take heart from her recent victory over Pegula on indoor hard in the final of the Billie Jean King Cup. Is the only singles player in Riyadh who is also playing doubles, another factor which explains why she is the rank outsider in this group.

SERENA WILLIAMS GROUP

Iga Swiatek

• Best odds – Title: 3/1; Group: 5/4; Qualify: 2/5
• Race position: 2nd
• 2025 win-loss record: 61-15
• 2025 win-loss record v top 10: 8-6
• 2025 titles: 3 – Wimbledon, Seoul, Cincinnati
• WTA Finals record: 11-4 (24 Gp, 23 W, 22 SF, 21 Gp)
• Recent form: QF Wuhan, L16 Beijing, W Seoul
• Record v group opponents:
  Anisimova – overall: 1-1; indoor hard: 0-0; all hard: 0-1; 2025: 1-1
  Rybakina – overall: 6-4; indoor hard: 1-0; all hard: 5-2; 2025: 4-0
  Keys – overall: 5-2; indoor hard: 0-0; all hard: 1-2; 2025: 1-1

No-one is this field has won more matches this season than Swiatek, although she has not been as dominant as in previous years – hence her position as the second seed. Ended a year-long title drought with a surprise success at Wimbledon and has since followed that up with titles in Cincinnati and Seoul, showing she can win in quicker conditions. However, after that Seoul victory there were some disappointing results in Asia, including a heavy defeat to Paolini in Wuhan. Certainly isn’t in the sort of form that brought her the 2023 title at this event (then played outdoors in Cancun) and the Pole looks on the short side to me.

Amanda Anisimova

• Best odds – Title: 11/2; Group: 12/5; Qualify: 4/7
• Race position: 4th
• 2025 win-loss record: 45-16
• 2025 win-loss record v top 10: 8-3
• 2025 titles: 2 – Beijing, Doha
• WTA Finals record: Debut
• Recent form: W Beijing
• Record v group opponents:
  Swiatek – overall: 1-1; indoor hard: 0-0; all hard: 1-0; 2025: 1-1
  Rybakina – overall: 0-0; indoor hard: 0-0; all hard: 0-0; 2025: 0-0
  Keys – overall: 0-0; indoor hard: 0-0; all hard: 0-0; 2025: 0-0

The only Finals debutant this year, Anisimova arrives in Riyadh having won 20 of her last 24 matches, a run which has taken in finals at both Wimbledon and the US Open. The powerful American tends to raise her game against the elite which bodes well for this week – she has gone 8-3 against top-10ers so far in 2025, with four in this field defeated. Gauff and Paolini were both victims in Beijing where Anisimova won the title recently. Hasn’t played Rybakina or Keys before which does throw up some doubts about how she will perform.

Elena Rybakina

• Best odds – Title: 8/1; Group: 15/4; Qualify: 11/10
• Race position: 6th
• 2025 win-loss record: 54-19
• 2025 win-loss record v top 10: 6-6
• 2025 titles: 2 – Ningbo, Strasbourg
• WTA Finals record: 2-4 (24 Gp, 23 Gp)
• Recent form: SF Tokyo, W Ningbo, QF Wuhan, L32 Beijing, QF BJK Cup Finals (w/KAZ, 0-1)
• Record v group opponents:
  Swiatek – overall: 4-6; indoor hard: 0-1; all hard: 2-5; 2025: 0-4
  Anisimova – overall: 0-0; indoor hard: 0-0; all hard: 0-0; 2025: 0-0
  Keys – overall: 3-3; indoor hard: 1-0; all hard: 3-2; 2025: 1-1

One of the best servers on the tour, Rybakina was the last player to qualify for his tournament. However, did her efforts on the Asian swing come at a cost? She was last seen in Tokyo where she withdrew from her scheduled semi-final with a back injury. Had seemed happy with her game prior to that withdrawal saying she had been playing “really well”. Perhaps her decision was a precaution but Rybakina has a long track record of injury and illness woe and I’m not sure the time to back her is at the end of a long season.

Madison Keys

• Best odds – Title: 33/1; Group: 15/2; Qualify: 9/4
• Race position: 7th
• 2025 win-loss record: 37-13
• 2025 win-loss record v top 10: 5-4
• 2025 titles: 2 – Australian Open, Adelaide
• WTA Finals record: 1-2 (16 Gp)
• Recent form: None
• Record v group opponents:
  Swiatek – overall: 2-5; indoor hard: 0-0; all hard: 2-1; 2025: 1-1
  Anisimova – overall: 0-0; indoor hard: 0-0; all hard: 0-0; 2025: 0-0
  Rybakina – overall: 3-3; indoor hard: 0-1; all hard: 2-3; 2025: 1-1

Keys’ second WTA Finals appearance comes nine years after her first but it’s hard to be confident about her chances. Due to a shoulder injury, she’s not played since losing in the first round of the US Open in August and coming in cold against players of this ability doesn’t look a great idea. As we saw at the Australian Open where she emerged as champion, few hit the ball harder than Keys but she is here largely due to those efforts in January – she’s not won a title since and neither has she beaten a top-10 player since leaving Oz.

VERDICT

ARYNA SABALENKA’s hardcourt record warrants huge respect and I believe she’s a worthy favourite here.

In a week when ball control could be an issue due to the altitude, I’m encouraged by how she’s handled that in Madrid over the years – she’s a three-time champion there.

Admittedly, she’s yet to capture this crown but I suspect that will only fuel her desire to win this week and the lack of repeat champions on the recent roll of honour is encouraging on that front.

She’s got out of the group stage on her last three appearances – all at different venues – and a strong record against group foes Pegula and Paolini suggests she’ll extend that run.

To me, 5/2 seems a reasonable price.

Also in the Graf group, I like a bet in the sub-markets and that’s JESSICA PEGULA TO QUALIFY for the semi-finals.

Given the way she played in Asia, making the final in Wuhan and semis in Beijing, I think 13/8 here is on the large side.

She also holds a winning record against Gauff and Paolini.

Admittedly, she’d probably prefer to be playing outdoors but the American is not without a chance in this section.

In the other, Williams, group, AMANDA ANISIMOVA looks to have potential.

She’s been very impressive in the second half of the season, winning 20 of her last 24 matches, and also has a fine record against the top 10 in 2025.

Swiatek doesn’t look the strongest favourite in this pool, while Rybakina’s fragile body looks a concern again and it’s hard to believe Keys is going to be at her best after more than two months without a match.

The Beijing champion looks more than capable of progressing to the semis and from there she can compete with anybody.

She’s the back-up title bet at 11/2.

Posted at 1030 GMT on 31/10/25

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