Andy Schooler previews the women's semi-final action at the Australian Open on Thursday, including Madison Keys v Iga Swiatek.
Tennis betting tips: Australian Open matches
1.5pts Paula Badosa to win over 9.5 games v Aryna Sabalenka at 10/11 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
0.5pt Sabalenka to serve the most double faults v Badosa at 5/1 (bet365)
1pt Iga Swiatek to serve the most double faults v Madison Keys at 9/4 (bet365)
Aryna Sabalenka v Paula Badosa (0830 GMT)
It’s now 19 wins in a row at the Australian Open for Aryna Sabalenka, who has started 2025 with 10 straight victories.
However, chinks in the armour were shown in the last of those matches, Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova pushing the defending champion hard.
The Russian broke Sabalenka’s serve in five consecutive games during that match and subsequently led it by a break in the deciding set.
However, to her credit, Sabalenka was able to stem the tide to keep her title bid on track.
Pavlyuchenkova’s ability to overpower Sabalenka from the baseline, at times, in that contest will give Badosa plenty of hope though.
If she goes for her shots, this one could well be closer than the odds suggest – Badosa is 3/1 to land the upset.
The Spaniard has been in fine form over the past six months, surging up the WTA rankings, and following her impressive victory over Coco Gauff on Monday, she has now won 27 of her last 35 matches.
Six of her defeats in that run have come against top-12 opponents but she’s forced a deciding set against Iga Swiatek, Jessica Pegula and Gauff.
Something similar here wouldn’t surprise me.
While Sabalenka leads the head-to-head 5-2, winning the last five, the matches have often been close.
The data shows that. Across the series, both players have landed 60% of their first serves in play with Sabalenka edging things in terms of points won – 70% to 66%. However, they are dead level on second-serve points won, both players with a figure of 46%.
At this tournament, Badosa holds a healthy advantage behind both serves and has duly managed to hold in 81% of her service games. Sabalenka has slipped to 70% after those struggles in the last round. She has, however, broken serve more often – 52% of the time, in fact, to Badosa’s 40%.
Badosa has potential on the handicap but I think the best way to side with the Spaniard is to play the overs on her games line. This is set at 9.5.
She’s covered this in five of their seven previous encounters and even a straight-sets defeat could see this land.
For a long shot, consider the double-faults market where Sabalenka looks too big at 5/1 to serve the most.
OK, Sabalenka has only managed to do this in two of their previous seven meetings but there have also been two ties and only once has she lost this bet by more than two.
As for this tournament, it’s pretty close in terms of DFs served per game – Sabalenka’s figure of 0.17 isn’t far behind Badosa’s 0.23.
Yes, Sabalenka is underdog here but should she be 5/1? Not in my opinion.
Unibet’s DF handicap is another option; Sabalenka gets a 2.5 start here.
Madison Keys v Iga Swiatek (to follow SF1)
Having been a long-time backer of Keys at the Grand Slams but not this week, I will be gutted if she wins this match!
However, I don’t really see it happening.
Swiatek has been near perfect so far in Melbourne and showed no signs of slowing down on Wednesday when Emma Navarro became the latest player to be dismantled by the Pole.
Navarro won just three games (to help this column land another winner) and Swiatek has now lost just seven games across the last four rounds. Brutal.
She’s lost serve only twice in the tournament, holding her own delivery in 95% of her service games. Swiatek has also broken her opponent 65% of the time. Those are remarkable numbers.
You won’t be surprised to learn that Keys can’t come anywhere near those – 81% and 27% are her equivalent figures with the latter of particular concern here.
She’ll look to overpower Swiatek and I suspect she’ll be forced to adopt a go-for-broke approach which we’ve often seen from the American. However, red-lining often leads to Keys errors and another blowout should not be ruled out.
That’s what happened the two times the pair met last season, although both matches took place on Swiatek’s favourite clay surface.
She’s up 4-1 overall but it’s 1-1 on a hardcourt and that will certainly give Keys hope.
Her sole victory came in the slick conditions of Cincinnati in 2022 – the only time she has broken the Swiatek serve in their last four meetings – but it won’t be as fast here which will disappoint the 9/2 underdog.
The Rod Laver Arena has played sluggish in the night sessions and this match looks set to begin with the temperature below 20C which won’t help either.
There is a chance the retractable roof will be required, which has the potential to help Keys, but I just don’t see her being able to cope with Swiatek, given the latter’s form.
Swiatek is tempting on the game handicap given she’s odds-against to cover the 5.5 line.
However, I’m again drawn to the double-faults markets here.
Swiatek is offered at 9/4 to serve the most, something she’s managed in three of the five previous meetings with one tie.
That can perhaps be explained by Keys’ first-strike tennis – she’ll certainly look to go after any second serves she gets a look at and that could push Swiatek to go for that little bit extra. That’s when errors can occur.
So far at Melbourne Park, Keys has served 0.3 double faults per game and Swiatek 0.26 which isn’t much of a difference.
Throw in that head-to-head record and 9/4 looks a plausible bet.
- Posted at 1230 GMT on 22/01/25
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.
