Andy Schooler previews Wednesday’s quarter-final action at the Australian Open, including Jannik Sinner v Alex de Minaur.
Tennis betting tips: Australian Open matches
1.5pts under 18.5 games in Emma Navarro v Iga Swiatek at 4/5 (BoyleSports)
1.5pts Jannik Sinner to beat Alex de Minaur 3-0 at 5/4 (Spreadex, Sporting Index)
Madison Keys v Elina Svitolina (0030 GMT)
This looks a cracking match-up – big ball-striker against classic counter-puncher.
It’s Keys who is the 8/15 favourite but I certainly wouldn’t rule out Svitolina here. I love watching her play and there are few better retrievers in the women’s game.
She’ll need those skills here against the power of Keys but if she does manage to get plenty back and make the American play time and again, as I suspect she may, she may well draw the errors from her opponent.
Keys outhit Elena Rybakina in the previous round but this is a totally different challenge.
I’m tempted by the 7/4 on offer about the Ukrainian but I’m going to opt to leave this alone and simply enjoy the match.
For those who do like Keys here, there looks a good way of boosting her price.
Sky Bet usually offer a market which involves the player to win while serving the most aces and fewest double faults. It’s not up at time of writing but should be before the match.
Keys has served the most aces in four of five previous meetings and the fewest double faults in all five.
Emma Navarro v Iga Swiatek (not before 0200 GMT)
Swiatek has steamrolled through the draw so far and has lost just four games across the last three rounds.
OK, she is yet to face a seeded player – and Navarro is the eighth seed – but I’m not sure that will alter the pattern a great deal.
Just look at the stats.
In the tournament so far, Swiatek has won 81% of points behind her first serve and 63% behind her second. Navarro’s equivalent figures are 63 and 39 respectively.
Looking at those numbers, it’s no surprise to see that Swiatek has held serve 93% of the time and Navarro a lowly 58%.
The American’s second serve got battered by Daria Kasatkina on Monday and I can see that shot getting the full treatment again here.
It certainly did in the pair’s only previous meeting when she won just 16% of second-serve points in a match during which she failed to hold serve at all.
Swiatek won 6-0 6-2 that day in Charleston. Admittedly, it was back in 2018, but it simply adds weight to the tournament numbers which are heavily in Swiatek’s favour.
I just expect her to outmanoeuvre Navarro and I don’t see the American’s serve being able to give her any respite.
Another comfortable victory for the second seed looks on the cards and I’ll happily back under 18.5 games here at 4/5.
CLICK HERE to back under 18.5 games with Sky Bet
Ben Shelton v Lorenzo Sonego (not before 0330 GMT)
My view on this one is that Shelton looks rather short and that Sonego could be worth a try at 5/2.
The Italian has had to tough it out in Melbourne, dropping a set in every round so far, but he’s dealt well with young guns Joao Fonseca and Learner Tien, playing some good tennis.
Shelton hasn’t had things all his own way either and, as long as there’s still enough fuel in both tanks, I can see this being a fairly long encounter. For the record, over 39.5 games is at 4/5.
The pair’s previous matches have been split one apiece and it’s notable that Sonego hasn’t been overwhelmed by the Shelton serve, breaking eight times (to five). The ace count is also up 12-8 in Sonego’s favour.
If you are going to back an underdog on Tuesday, Sonego is certainly worth considering, but there look to be better bets elsewhere.
Jannik Sinner v Alex de Minaur (0830 GMT)
You have to feel for the likeable De Minaur.
He finally reaches the last eight at his home Grand Slam but then runs into a player who has beaten him nine times out of nine.
Not only that, but Sinner has lost just the one set in that series, winning the last 17 in a row.
It’s just a match-up that doesn’t work for the Aussie. He can’t outhit Sinner and while De Minaur is among the speediest players in the sport and a great retriever, the Italian isn’t far behind on that count.
His serve seems to have improved but it’s still not a huge weapon and Sinner is one of the best returners in the game.
The reason we can get odds-against about another straight-sets win is the fact that Sinner struggled physically in his victory over Holger Rune in the last 16.
He admitted he came into that match fighting an illness and he needed treatment on court during the contest.
Temperatures into the 30s didn’t help his cause either but it’s significant that it may not even get above 20C on Wednesday.
Despite all his problems, Sinner still beat Rune in four sets and while we can’t be sure what shape he’ll take to the court in here, I’m still tempted in by the price.
CLICK HERE to back Sinner to win 3-0 with Sky Bet
- Posted at 1300 GMT on 21/01/25
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