Jannik Sinner and Novak Djokovic are both in quarter-final action at Wimbledon on Wednesday so check out our best bets.
Tennis betting tips: Wimbledon day 10
1pt Ben Shelton (-2.5) to win the aces handicap v Jannik Sinner at 22/25 (Unibet, BetMGM)
1pt Flavio Cobolli to win the first set v Novak Djokovic at 10/3 (bet365)
Jannik Sinner v Ben Shelton
There are two short-priced favourites for Wednesday’s men’s quarter-finals at Wimbledon but I’d be very wary about backing either man.
Let’s start with this match for which Sinner is at 1/4.
The Italian can count himself very fortunate to have reached this stage given he was staring down the barrel against Grigor Dimitrov when the Bulgarian appeared to tear a pectoral muscle while up two sets to love.
Dimitrov was really ramping up his serve, regularly delivering 140mph bombs, and perhaps going for that bit extra on his delivery contributed to the injury. I guess we’ll never know.
Either way, his performance proved Sinner is vulnerable and in this match the world number one will come up against another player capable of serving big.
While all the headlines from that match were about Dimitrov’s problem, it should be remembered Sinner suffered a nasty fall early on and required treatment on his elbow. He didn’t look very comfortable and it must be something of a worry for his fans and backers that he cancelled Tuesday’s planned practice session.
Could Shelton take advantage if Sinner is indeed less than 100% physically?
Well, he’s certainly playing well, losing only one set en route to this stage. However, he’s also 5-1 down on the head-to-head, losing the last five, all in straight sets.
It’s hard to be confident.
The one angle I do like though comes in the serve markets which earned us a winner on Tuesday, in particular the aces handicap.
Sinner gets a 2.5-game start here and some will highlight the fact he’s serving more aces per game at this tournament than Shelton (0.78 v 0.63).
However, the head-to-head match up matters a lot in this market – this is about how each player gets a read on the other’s serve – and the stats show that Shelton has served the most aces in four of the pair’s six meetings with one tie.
He’s covered the -2.5 handicap in three of those but, most significantly, he out-aced Sinner 15-7 when the duo met here at Wimbledon 12 months ago.
That’s no co-incidence and very much something to do with the skiddy, lower-bouncing grass which gives the returner less time to react.
Throw in some potential discomfort for Sinner and I think Shelton is worth backing to cover the handicap.
CLICK HERE for Sky Bet's enhanced Wimbledon accumulators
Flavio Cobolli v Novak Djokovic
This quarter-final also features a player coming in under something of a cloud – although Djokovic denies it.
He was clearly not comfortable in Monday’s match with Alex de Minaur, regularly stretching out his abdomen, while I found it strange he was using so much ice to cool down during the changeovers – it really wasn’t very hot that day.
To me, this looked to be a player struggling with some sort of illness, even if the man himself said afterwards he was fine.
If he was under the weather, it would certainly explain a miserable first-set display – the set was lost 6-1. To his credit, the seven-time champion dug in and recover well to post a four-set win. On to the next.
That next is Cobolli, who few would have expected to reach this stage but he has done so impressively, dropping just one set so far (against Marin Cilic in the last round).
He’s been very strong on serve, with the second delivery winning an excellent 66% of points across the four rounds so far.
If he gets anywhere near that here, I’d be surprised and frankly I’m sure the Italian would be delighted to hit 50% against one of the game’s great returners.
Djokovic enjoyed huge success on that second serve return in the pair’s only previous meeting.
That came in Shanghai towards the end of last season when Cobolli won just 30% of his second-serve points and was thrashed 6-1 6-2. He had no greater joy on return, failing to create a break point. Those are worrying numbers.
Still, it’s hard to be confident about Djokovic given how he looked at times on Monday.
For those looking for an angle here, perhaps backing Cobolli to win the first set at 10/3 has potential.
Djokovic started dreadfully against De Minaur and there’s no doubt Cobolli is playing well. He’ll surely be coming out with a ‘nothing to lose’ attitude and he certainly has enough power in his groundstrokes to trouble the sixth seed.
Go-for-broke early tactics could just pay dividends.
CLICK HERE for Sky Bet's enhanced Wimbledon accumulators
Posted at 1730 BST on 08/07/25
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