Carlos Alcaraz takes on Cameron Norrie in one of the big matches at Wimbledon on Tuesday but our best bet comes elsewhere.
Tennis betting tips: Wimbledon day nine
1.5pts Karen Khachanov (+10.5) to win the aces handicap v Taylor Fritz at 22/25 (Unibet, BetMGM)
Cameron Norrie v Carlos Alcaraz
Alcaraz has now won 22 matches in a row and is within three victories of an historic Wimbledon three-peat.
Yet the Spaniard himself admits he’s rarely been at his best during that run and, to some extent, that’s borne out by the stats which show he’s lost a set in 11 of those 22.
Norrie has the potential to add his name to that list.
He’s beaten Alcaraz twice in their six meetings, although the most recent of those matches was more than two years ago when Norrie beat an injury-hit Spaniard in Rio. His other win came in the fast conditions of Cincinnati in 2022, shortly before Alcaraz won that season’s US Open. They are yet to meet on grass.
However, it must be something of a concern that Norrie had to go four and a half hours against Nicolas Jarry on Sunday – while he made it through there must be a tinge of regret that match point was missed in the third set.
Fatigue isn’t what you need in the legs ahead of facing the run-all-day Alcaraz.
Norrie has been coming up with some good angles in the bits I’ve seen – he was able to push Jarry around the baseline quite a bit – but that will be tougher to do against a mover as good as Alcaraz.
Alcaraz clearly isn’t in tip-top form right now, losing sets in three of his four matches so far, so I’m tempted to get with Norrie to win a set – he’s 5/4 on the +2.5 set handicap line.
However, that potential for tiredness, plus the realisation that Alcaraz could flick the switch at any given moment, is enough to put me off pulling the trigger.
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Taylor Fritz v Karen Khachanov
Both of these men have had to tough it out to reach the quarter-finals.
Fritz needed five sets to beat big servers Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard and Gabriel Diallo in the first two rounds, while Khachanov has also faced back-to-back five-setters.
The Russian would have been happy to have earned a straight-sets win over Kamil Majchrzak in the last round, when he dominated on serve, while Fritz may also have appreciated Jordan Thompson quitting their match in the second set.
In short, both should be refreshed for this battle, a contest for which Fritz is the hot favourite.
I can’t help but think Khachanov is a little over-priced at 5/2, especially when you look at the head-to-head and find him 2-0 up.
However, they haven’t met since 2020 and it’s fair to say Fritz has improved a lot since then.
While it would be wrong to suggest the American hasn’t improved on serve, that was always a strength so it’s interesting to see that Khachanov out-aced him 12-11 in their most-recent match, which came at the ATP Cup in Perth.
Fritz is well ahead for aces at the tournament, serving 1.01 per game to Khachanov’s 0.53, but was beaten in this market by those two big servers in rounds one and two.
Khachanov can get up above the 130mph mark and history suggests he can cause problems on this front if he hits his spots.
I don’t think he’s going to win the ace count – he’s 9/1 to do so – but the handicap line does look too big with Khachanov getting a 10.5 head start.
CLICK HERE for Sky Bet's enhanced Wimbledon accumulators
Posted at 1620 BST on 07/07/25
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