Iga Swiatek takes on Amanda Anisimova in the Wimbledon final on Saturday so check out Andy Schooler's preview and best bet.
Tennis betting tips: Wimbledon women's final
1pt Amanda Anisimova to beat Iga Swiatek at 2/1 (Sky Bet, bet365)
Amanda Anisimova v Iga Swiatek (1600 BST)
For the eighth successive year, Wimbledon will have a maiden champion.
For all the recent surprises in SW19 in recent years, I’m not sure too many saw this final coming, although there is a tinge of regret in this writer that having considered Anisimova in the weak second quarter, I moved her onto the ‘rejected’ pile.
Her brand of power tennis has been well suited to conditions here with the American’s backhand proving a serious weapon.
On the opposite side of the net will be a former world number one, a player who started the tournament well up the betting list. However, her mediocre Wimbledon record suggested she would do well to justify her odds.
Well, she’s proved the doubters wrong, dropping only one set en route to this final with significant improvement having been made on the grass.
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With her speed, she’s always been a great mover on the other surfaces but had struggled on the lawns. However, she’s cited that aspect as a major improvement.
"I would say we mainly focused on my movement and how I should stop before hitting the ball,” she said, adding that extra practice on grass following her French Open semi-final loss had also helped.
The Pole’s serve has been ultra reliable – she’s held in 89% of her service games which is excellent in the women’s game.
Indeed, Swiatek leads Anisimova on all the key serve stats across the tournament so far, having advantages when it comes to first and second serve points won.
She was very impressive on return against Belinda Bencic in her semi-final and arrives at the final having broken serve in 47% of return games. For the record, Anisimova is at a still very good 40%.
After that semi-final win, it was notable that Swiatek described the past few weeks as the” first time” she’s “played well” on grass so confidence is clearly up.
However, the concern for me would be this looks a significant step up in terms of opponent quality.
Swiatek has not faced a top-15 player in her run so far. Neither has she played anyone who hits the ball as hard as Anisimova, who definitely has the ability to deny her the time she got against Bencic on Thursday.
That’s when Swiatek has struggled in the past and I do think Anisimova has the tools to upset the applecart here.
I was surprised to see the American up around the 2/1 mark when the market initially went up. After all, she has just beaten world number one Aryna Sabalenka.
Anisimova did hold a head-to-head advantage going into that contest – she’s yet to face Swiatek at senior level – but it was still quite a performance.
Admittedly, it was a contest largely about power-hitting from the baseline, from where Anisimova found some fine angles.
I’d expect Swiatek to try to mix things up here and disrupt the rhythm – she won’t want an all-out slugfest. She’ll know that Tatjana Maria won the Queen’s Club final against Anisimova last month by throwing in slice after slice.
However, Anisimova showed some decent touch in the few points that were decided closer to the net against Sabalenka and she was also very good on the pressure points, saving 11 of 14 break chances.
I always wonder how a player will react to the cauldron of a maiden Grand Slam final but Anisimova’s response to pressure on Thursday has to be a good sign.
Swiatek has a 5-0 record in Grand Slam finals although, of course, she will be playing in her first Wimbledon final so there’s the potential for nerves and tightness there too, especially given she’s the 4/9 favourite.
I admit there are plenty of factors which suggest the Pole can justify her market position here but I’m going with my initial feeling that Anisimova can land the blows which can carry her to success.
I think Swiatek hasn’t been tested in the same way Anisimova has over the past two weeks and is definitely facing her toughest challenge of the tournament.
Both players are playing well but I don’t think the price gap between them is justified and, with that in mind, I’m prepared to back the underdog.
Posted at 1600 BST on 11/07/25
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