Andy Schooler previews Sunday’s Wimbledon men’s singles final between world number one Jannik Sinner and defending champion Carlos Alcaraz.
Tennis betting tips: Wimbledon men's final
1.5pts Jannik Sinner to beat Carlos Alcaraz at 11/10 (William Hill, 888sport)
1pt over 12.5 games in first set at 5/2 (General)
0.5pt Sinner to serve the most double faults at 9/2 (bet365)
Jannik Sinner v Carlos Alcaraz (1600 BST)
So, five weeks on from an all-time classic, we have a rematch.
On the clay of Roland Garros, Alcaraz became the first man in the Open Era to save three championship points in a Grand Slam before claiming the French Open title in a match which lasted almost five and a half hours.
Sinner could be forgiven for dwelling on that missed opportunity but, impressively, there appears to have been no hangover over the past fortnight.
The world number one has served mightily well in SW19 – always a great starting block for success on the grass – holding in 95% of his service games and losing his delivery only four times in the tournament.
His movement on the surface has clearly improved, another key element for conquering the unique grasscourt challenge.
Only two sets have been lost to get to this stage, although both were against Grigor Dimitrov in a match Sinner was fortunate to escape from – the Bulgarian was forced to quit when four games from victory.
Still, it’s been plain sailing since with his consistent depth of shot pushing Novak Djokovic back in Friday’s semi-final. He also appears to be striking the ball very cleanly at the moment.
Clearly the challenge of Alcaraz is at a different level – these two have proved this season that they are operating on a different plain to the rest of the ATP Tour.
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And the head-to-head isn’t in Sinner’s favour.
At tour level, he’s lost the last five and is now 8-4 down, although it’s worth highlighting the fact that Sinner did win when the pair met at last year’s 6 Kings Slam exhibition event in Saudi Arabia – more on that later.
Alcaraz appears to be that kryptonite factor for Sinner and may well have a mental edge coming into this final, particularly after what happened at Roland Garros.
Physically, he’ll again look to make use of what has to be the best drop shot in the game – getting Sinner coming forward (or at least worrying about having to) looks a good tactic, albeit it’s an area the Italian has clearly improved in.
Alcaraz’s volleys are also among the best on the tour and he’ll certainly be the happier to come forward.
Sinner will aim to deny him such opportunities though, dragging him into the corners on both wings. Alcaraz will undoubtedly hit some spectacular winners from such positions but Sinner will also be able to draw errors.
The bookmakers have Alcaraz as the slight favourite as he eyes a Wimbledon title hat-trick, one which would put him alongside Novak Djokovic, Roger Federer, Pete Sampras and Bjorn Borg in tournament history.
However, I’m edging towards Sinner.
A big factor in that thinking is the faster court.
Those five recent tour-level wins for Alcaraz have all come on sluggish surfaces – the clay of Roland Garros and Rome and the hardcourts of Indian Wells and Beijing.
But Sinner will get greater cut-through with his groundstrokes with his forehand one of the biggest in the game.
Here is where I return to that Saudi clash. The 6 Kings Slam was played on a quicker indoor court and while it technically is classed as an exhibition, the reality was it was anything but with huge prize money on the line that day.
I do think that’s relevant when we consider the outcome of this match.
Sinner was far from dominant – it was one of eight of their last 11 to have gone to a final set – but it can be argued the conditions gave him a little more help.
I’m not sure how relevant it is but it’s also worth mentioning that when these two met at Wimbledon three years ago, Sinner won and didn’t lose his serve in the entire match.
The 2025 tournament serve stats show how Sinner has made the most of these conditions.
I’ve already mentioned his 95% hold rate with is up on Alcaraz’s 90%. Sinner also holds leads on first-serve points won (82-78) and second-serve points won (64-54).
While Alcaraz is some returner, it’s also notable Sinner has broken serve more often so far (32% to Alcaraz’s 27%).
That serve should give Sinner a strong platform to build towards success.
I’ve mentioned before how Alcaraz doesn’t seem to be able to keep his foot on the pedal – his dropped at least one set in four of his six matches at this tournament and it was a similar story at the French Open.
If Sinner can get ahead early, fighting back here may be harder than it was at Roland Garros.
The strong serving performances of these two also bring the FIRST SET TIE-BREAK into play.
That’s occurred in eight of their 14 meetings and 5/2 about recurrence looks a tempting price.
Another long shot I like the look of in the sub-markets is for SINNER TO SERVE THE MOST DOUBLE FAULTS which surely shouldn’t be on offer at 9/2.
This price may have been based on the pair’s recent clash in Paris where Sinner didn’t serve a single double fault whereas Alcaraz produced seven.
However, that’s very much an outlier.
Sinner has served the most DFs in eight of the 14 previous meetings, including three of the last five.
Admittedly the current tournament stats also suggest Alcaraz will ‘win’ this market – he’s served 0.24 double faults per game to Sinner’s 0.14.
However, the level of Alcaraz’s returning means Sinner will likely be going for that bit extra here, be it pace or accuracy, and it’s not hard to see that figure nudging up.
OK, the same could also be said of the Spaniard on serve but still the price looks too big.
Preview posted at 1610 BST on 12/07/25
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