Taylor Fritz can serve up each-way profits in the US Open
Taylor Fritz can serve up each-way profits in the US Open

Tennis betting tips: US Open preview and best bets


The 2022 US Open men’s singles looks wide open. Our Andy Schooler, who tipped up the 2020 and 2021 winners, delivers his verdict ahead of Monday’s start.

US Open betting tips: Men's outright

1pt e.w. Taylor Fritz at 25/1 (BoyleSports)

0.5pt e.w. Marin Cilic at 125/1 (Sky Bet)

1pt Taylor Fritz to win the second quarter at 9/2 (Betfred)

1pt Marin Cilic to win the third quarter at 14/1 (Sky Bet)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook


US Open

  • Flushing Meadows, New York, USA (outdoor hard)

The bookies prices may not quite agree with me, but I’m struggling to think of a men’s 21st Century Grand Slam draw which has looked as open as that of the 2022 US Open.

So many times over the years we’ve gone in with an obvious candidate for victory, often the in-form member of the ‘Big Four’ or, as was the case in 2003 with Andy Roddick, a player who had dominated the warm-up events.

Here, we have neither.

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Two of that famous quartet aren’t here – Roger Federer still hasn’t returned from knee surgery, while Novak Djokovic’s decision not to be vaccinated against Covid-19 left him unable to enter the country – while Andy Murray is a fading force and Rafael Nadal is surrounded by injury concerns after his enforced Wimbledon exit.

And as far as lead-in form is concerned, where do you start?

The two big form indicators over the years have been the Masters 1000 tournaments in Canada and Cincinnati. This year those have been won by Pablo Carreno Busta and Borna Coric.

Casual sports fans can be forgiven for asking, who?

Just maybe we’re on track for an Emma Raducanu-style triumph and a triple-figure odds winner.

Favourites all falible

However, clearly the likelihood is that someone from much higher up the market is able to string things together and produce a run which carries them to the title.

A look at the market shows four players at a single-figure price but it’s difficult to be too enthused about their chances at such odds.

The top seed and title favourite is Daniil Medvedev, the reigning champion who has made two US Open finals in the last three years and the semis on his other attempt in that period.

But, quite staggeringly for a world number one, the Russian has won just one title since his triumph here 12 months ago, that coming in Los Cabos, Mexico, a few weeks ago.

Since then he’s been beaten by Nick Kyrgios early in Montreal and by Stefanos Tsitsipas in the semis in Cincinnati.

Those are far from disastrous results but they also show the need for improvement if he’s to win back-to-back titles at Flushing Meadows – something that hasn’t been done since Federer’s successes of 2007 and 2008.

For me, he’s too short at no bigger than 13/5, especially given he’s got that man Kyrgios in his section of the draw with the two on course to meet in the last 16.

That draw also makes it hard to back Kyrgios with much confidence.

Remarkably, he seems to have finally quelled (at least to some extent) concerns about his mentality with a series of mature performances in recent months.

Most notably he made the Wimbledon final and he’s since secured the title in Washington as well as beating Medvedev.

But his recent run of good results has highlighted a different issue with backing the Australian – his rather circumspect body.

Physically, Kyrgios has often struggled and that was again the case in Montreal recently when he was complaining of abdominal pain.

I don’t think it’s that controversial to suggest he’s never been the fittest player on the tour and a relatively light schedule over recent years is probably coming back to haunt him now, given he’s finally in the sort of form which is able to take him deep in tournaments week in, week out.

Best-of-five sets in what can be pretty gruelling hot and humid conditions in New York can be a tough business and I’ve no interest in backing Kyrgios at 9/1.

I’m also happy to pass over Carlos Alcaraz, the young gun who took the early part of the season by storm.

Things haven’t continued in the same vein for the man who triumphed in Miami in April and he arrives here having failed to win any of his last six events and suffered some rather surprising defeats, even on his most favoured claycourts.

The slick conditions of Flushing Meadows’ Laykold courts and Wilson balls don’t look ideal for the Spaniard’s game either.

Nadal close to staking plan

Of the main contenders, at least in the eyes of the layers, the man I like the look of most is Nadal but I’m still reluctant to get involved.

Nadal has a fine record at Flushing Meadows, winning here in four of his last eight visits. For context, hardcourt king Djokovic has only ever won this tournament three times.

He’s also been the best player on tour in 2022 – remember he was halfway to the Grand Slam after winning both the Australian and French Opens.

However, as has become the norm with Nadal, injuries have played their part in his season with enforced breaks following Miami and Wimbledon where an abdominal tear ended his Grand Slam bid as he was forced to withdraw prior to his scheduled semi-final.

It is that injury which has to be a worry for potential backers here.

On the plus side, Nadal is someone who has become adept at managing injuries and you only have to look back to January to see how he was able to win a tournament of this magnitude with little matchplay behind him – he won the Australian Open on the back of three warm-up matches following a five-month lay-off.

A kind draw should allow him to play himself into the tournament, although that’s assuming he’s fully fit and that seems quite an assumption given his comments in Cincinnati where he lost his opening match.

There he spoke about not really knowing how hard to push his body (in relation to the tear) with words such as “hope” used to describe how he’d come into this event.

Even a below-par Nadal managed to push eventual champion Coric to three sets on that occasion (and he had set points in the first set too) and you’d expect him to be better two weeks on, particularly given he’s since had plenty of practice against his peers that he said he needed. (“I know that to gain condition I will have to be on the tour practising with the guys”).

Those factors are certainly positives but the fact remains that Nadal is only 4/1 to win this tournament and he’s not won a match for almost two months due to his injury.

I came close to pulling the trigger but, all things considered, I can’t at this price.

So, if not at the top of the market, where does value lie?

Let’s first consider conditions.

As already said, it’s going to be pretty hot and humid – the long-term forecast suggests temperatures around 30C throughout the tournament.

That should help keep the speed of the balls high – as has been the case here in the past couple of years.

The 2020 event was the first to be played on Laykold courts, the DecoTurf of previous years having been ripped up.

It's widely accepted that the new surface has sped things up, with the comments of Medvedev and Casper Ruud last year notable.

Medvedev described the outside courts as “super fast” although he pointed out conditions were slower on the main Arthur Ashe Stadium court, while Ruud said he’d never played on anything as quick.

That’s probably going a bit over the top but it’s fair to say these are faster-than-average conditions which will clearly suit some players and worry others.

Looking first at the top half, Alex de Minaur will probably find things a bit too quick for his liking, while I’m inclined to feel the same way about Montreal winner Carreno Busta, even though he did make the semis here two years ago.

I remain unconvinced by Stefanos Tsitsipas, the runner-up in Cincinnati, in such conditions, with his backhand a definite weakness in elite company.

Perhaps Matteo Berrettini can capitalise.

He made the quarter-final here last season and was also a semi-finalist in 2019.

However, recent form has been disappointing with the Italian unable to build on his good grasscourt campaign which sadly ended with a positive Covid test at Wimbledon.

Perhaps that has had a lasting effect, mentally and/or physically, but first-match defeats in both Montreal and Cincinnati make it hard to back him here, even if he does look to have the draw which should allow him to play himself into the tournament.

Preference is instead for TAYLOR FRITZ, whose big serve and crunching groundstrokes should be well suited to these conditions.

His run to the Wimbledon quarter-finals should be seen as something of a breakthrough at this level even if it ultimately ended in a narrow loss to Nadal.

The American proved his recovery from a foot injury in Cincinnati, another event which also plays quick, by beating both Kyrgios and Andrey Rublev before succumbing to Medvedev in the last eight.

He looks to have a decent enough draw here with Botic van de Zandschulp, Ruud and Tsitsipas the seeds standing in his path to the semis where Medvedev may await.

Don’t forget this is a player who triumphed on hardcourts in Indian Wells back in March (beating Nadal in the final) and more recently he’s won 14 of his last 18 matches on tour.

With holes picked in several of those above him in the market, I’m prepared to have a small bet on him, both in the outright and quarter markets.

For those prepared to take on Nadal (and Alcaraz) in the bottom half, there are plenty of alternatives.

Cameron Norrie made the final in Los Cabos and the semis in Cincinnati, putting aside concerns about his game in fast conditions at the latter. After a semi-final run at Wimbledon, he’s certainly not without a chance.

In the same quarter (that of Nadal), my eye is again caught by the 66/1 offered about a player of Andrey Rublev’s talent.

I remain convinced he’s capable of reaching a Grand Slam final but I also understand he’s let his backers down too often over the years, while his form coming in is hardly sparkling.

I thought long and hard about backing Hubert Hurkacz at 40/1 given the Pole showed some good form to reach the Montreal final. He’s also won on Laykold courts in Miami in the past and is another with the game style who should go well in New York.

Yet he hasn’t done so in the past with four previous visits producing just three match wins. He’s yet to go beyond the second round and that’s somewhat off-putting.

I’m going to instead try a punt on former champion MARIN CILIC.

At his best, he’s got the ideal game to succeed in such conditions with a serve capable of producing a slew of aces and service winners.

He used his serve-forehand combination to huge effect here in 2014 with his demolition of Federer and Kei Nishikori in the last two rounds a sight to behold.

Cilic, whose backhand slice is also one of the best around, has been back to the semis and quarters since then and it should not be underestimated what that feeling of previous success can bring to a fresh title bid.

Now 33, he’ll know he’s not got that many chances left to add another Grand Slam to his CV and, as already argued, this looks as good an opportunity as he’s likely to get.

Hurkacz, Alcaraz and Coric are all in his quarter but Cilic holds an 8-0 head-to-head against the latter and is 3-0 up against the former.

A recent meeting with Alcaraz in Cincinnati brought defeat although Cilic was right in the match in the first set, which he lost on a tie-break, and I’d suggest there are still question marks over Alcaraz when it comes to best-of-five tennis.

In short, there’s enough to like about Cilic at 125/1 with Sky Bet (and 80s elsewhere) – again the recommendation is to back him each-way and in the quarter betting.

Posted at 1715 BST on 26/08/22

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