The US Open quarter-finals get under way on Tuesday in New York. Andy Schooler previews the action.
Tennis betting tips: Daily best bets
1.5pts Barbora Krejcikova to serve the most aces v Jessica Pegula at 5/6 (bet365)
1pt Jiri Lehecka to win a set v Carlos Alcaraz at 11/8 (Coral, Ladbrokes, BoyleSports)
Jessica Pegula v Barbora Krejcikova (1630 BST)
Last year’s runner-up Pegula did little in the warm-up events to suggest another deep run at the US Open but here we are.
She’s really enjoyed herself thus far in New York where she’s yet to lose a set. Remarkably, she’s won 73% of return games. Having also held 79% of the time, her hold-break total figure of 152 is one of the highest I’ve seen.
Of course, a four-match sample if very small and against Krejcikova she now has to step up a level or two.
The former Wimbledon champion probably still doesn’t know how she’s still in the tournament after saving no fewer than eight match points against Taylor Townsend last time out.
That match was a real mish-mash from the Czech, who showed nerves of steel to play some fantastic tennis on those match points, but also threw in some shockers at times through the match, especially on the forehand side.
I can certainly see a way Krejcikova upsets the odds here – the 2/1 underdog has won two of the pair’s three previous meetings – but she’ll surely need more consistency against Pegula than she produced against Townsend.
Instead, the bet for me in this one comes in the most aces market.
We get more serve options as the tournament wears on and here I like Krejcikova to serve more aces than Pegula.
The Czech has landed this bet in all three of those past encounters – and by significant margins.
Last time out , at the 2024 WTA Finals, she won the ace count 11-1. Prior to that, there were 6-2 and 3-0 ‘wins’.
As long-term readers will know, I always place great weight on the head-to-head in these markets – this is about how one player deals with a specific other’s delivery, not how she generally performs.
However, even if you consider aces ‘form’ from this tournament you find that Krejcikova is serving slightly more – 0.33 per game to Pegula’s 0.31.
Jiri Lehecka v Carlos Alcaraz (to follow)
Alcaraz may have yet to lose a set at Flushing Meadows but my immediate reaction to seeing the market for this encounter was that Lehecka looks big at 12/1.
I remember the Czech beating Alcaraz in Doha earlier this year – their only previous meeting on a hardcourt – and he has the game to cause problems for anyone on his day.
However, I also remember thinking something similar in Melbourne this year when he went up against Novak Djokovic and barely landed a blow on the Serb. That’s a concern.
Alcaraz took his revenge of Lehecka in the Queen’s Club final on grass in June but that contest also saw the Czech win a set and that could be the route to take here.
As we saw in multiple matches at Queen’s, Lehecka has that ability to really turn it on when he’s in the groove and a spell like that for 40 minutes could do some damage here.
While Alcaraz has done everything asked of him so far, I’m not sure his opponents have been the best. He may also be feeling things physically with on-court treatment already taken during this tournament, while strappings had been applied for Monday’s practice session.
Could he be vulnerable. Well, for a set, yes.
Aryna Sabalenka v Marketa Vondrousova (2359 BST)
Sabalenka was well below her best in Cincinnati but, as she’s said herself, she’s improved round by round in New York where she is yet to lose a set.
Her serve has been excellent – she’s lost it only twice in four matches so far – but the Vondrousova game will be a new test for her.
The Czech has some great variety at her disposal and her mix-it-up style, full of slices and drop shots, proved too much for Elena Rybakina the other night, the Kazakh’s rhythm certainly disrupted.
Vondrousova will aim to repeat that trick here and she’s had plenty of success against Sabalenka in the past, winning four of nine meetings, albeit only two of six on a hardcourt and both of those victories came the previous decade.
The former Wimbledon champion has been very good on return at this year’s US Open, winning 39% of games with her opponent serving, and so I do feel she can challenge Sabalenka in a way that no-one has managed in New York thus far.
I don’t think it would be the biggest surprise were Vondrousova to win but do I see it happening? The short answer is no.
Novak Djokovic v Taylor Fritz (to follow)
John McEnroe used to motivate himself by rowing with the officials.
It feels like Djokovic is able to do use his physical ailments to do likewise – the more his body groans at him, the better he seems to play.
That seemed to be the case against Jan-Lennard Struff the other day when neck and forearm issues failed to stop him producing a strong display and a straight-sets victory.
However, recent history shows that as the physical issues mount, something eventually snaps.
Djokovic somehow pushed himself through an Australian Open quarter-final with Calros Alcaraz – surely his best performance of 2025 – but too much damage had been done and he had to quit his semi-final after one set.
The former world number one was also below his physical best come the Roland Garros semis, while at Wimbledon a quarter-final fall clearly caused more harm than initially thought with Djokovic hindered in his semi-final defeat to Jannik Sinner.
Fritz will certainly hope that Djokovic isn’t at peak level as his record against him is woeful.
Djokovic leads the head-to-head 10-0 with eight of those matches won in straight sets. Here at the US Open two years ago, Fritz won only nine games.
However, few feel Djokovic is near the level he produced here in 2023 when he won the most recent of his 24 Grand Slam titles.
Fritz, who has enjoyed a fine summer, must surely feel this is his best-ever chance of landing that winning blow.
He was good against Tomas Machac last time out and didn’t have to face a break point.
Djokovic’s serve has also impressed against both Struff and Cam Norrie and after the pair’s last meeting saw only one break of serve (in Shanghai last year) I can see serve holding sway early in this one.
I can’t be backing Fritz here at 6/4 given that head-to-head and knowing that Djokovic is still capable of delivering world-class tennis.
A first-set tie-break, something that’s occurred in two of the last five meetings and three of the last eight, looks of greater appeal at around 5/2, if you are getting involved in this one.
Posted at 1045 BST on 02/09/25
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