The women's semi-finals take place at the US Open on Thursday so check out Andy Schooler's previews of the action.
Tennis betting tips: Daily best bets
1.5pts Amanda Anisimova to beat Naomi Osaka at evens (General)
1pt Anisimova to serve most aces v Osaka at 7/4 (bet365)
Aryna Sabalenka v Jessica Pegula (2359 BST, Sky Sports Tennis)
The first semi-final is a rematch of last year’s final which Sabalenka won 7-5 7-5 on the same Arthur Ashe Stadium court.
Having since beaten Pegula in Miami, also in straight sets, the Belarusian now leads the head-to-head 7-2, although that is perhaps slightly misleading in terms of this contest.
Look at matches played only on an outdoor hardcourt and that becomes 3-2, while here in New York, it’s 1-1. That should give Pegula plenty of hope that she can overcome odds of 13/5.
She’s certainly been in fine form at Flushing Meadows, having been able to reproduce something close to her best tennis, something which looked unlikely in the lead-up to the tournament.
Pegula is yet to lose a set – no-one has even taken her to a tie-break – and looks in the groove right now.
Sabalenka has also cruised through to this stage, winning four matches in straight sets before receiving a walkover in the last eight when Marketa Vondrousova withdrew injured.
She may well have wanted a tougher test at that stage and this should be a step up in class for a player who has improved round-by-round but one who was well below her best in Cincinnati prior to arriving at Flushing Meadows.
I don’t think Pegula can be dismissed here and this could well be closer than the odds suggest.
While not totally convinced, I think the best bet would be to back the American on the game handicap – she gets a 4.5-game start, one she covered here 12 months ago.
Naomi Osaka v Amanda Anisimova (to follow)
I didn’t really expect these two to still be around at this stage but both deserve great credit for the way they’ve played so far in New York.
It’s been a long time since Osaka was challenging for the top prizes in the sport. Now a mother, she’s bidding to become a three-time US Open champion.
Anisimova is still seeking her maiden major crown but her response to her Wimbledon final pummelling has been very impressive, especially the way she took revenge on her SW19 conqueror Iga Swiatek on Wednesday.
The American, who has won both previous meetings with Osaka, was excellent in that contest, striking the ball exceptionally well, with depth and power. Swiatek did not play badly but she was simply beaten by the better player in what was an incredible turnaround from that Wimbledon embarrassment where Anisimova failed to win a single game.
Her backhand was on fire, particularly when going down the line, and that ability to change things up and end the cross-court exchanges could play a big factor in this match.
Statistically, there hasn’t been much between the players at this tournament. Anisimova has the edge when it comes to service holds (82% v 80%) but Osaka is just ahead on return games won (50% to 46%). It’s similarly close on first and second serve points won.
If Anisimova is able to replicate her level from her quarter-final, I think she’s very capable of winning this and I like her chances as the slight underdog.
There’s also a bet to be had in the aces market which served us well in the Pegula v Krejcikova match the other day.
The pair are dead level for aces at this tournament – both average 0.58 per game so far – but the head to head shows Anisimova has won this bet on both previous occasions. In the only hardcourt meeting, she won the count 11-5.
Admittedly, both encounters took place back in 2022 but I think it’s fair to say that Anisimova has been the bigger improver since then, certainly in service terms.
The American to serve the most aces at 7/4 looks good value.
Posted at 1130 BST on 04/09/25
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