Our Andy Schooler will be previewing each day’s play at the US Open. Here are his best bets for Sunday’s opening matches.
Tennis betting tips: Daily best bets
1pt Learner Tien to win a set v Novak Djokovic at 10/11 (William Hill)
1pt Adrian Mannarino to beat Tallon Griekspoor at 6/5 (General)
1pt Roberto Carballes Baena to beat Arthur Rinderknech at 7/4 (General)
Novak Djokovic v Learner Tien
At Friday’s media day, Djokovic spoke again about his only focus being the Grand Slams these days, throwing in his dislike for the new two-week Masters format. He’s not the only one.
But playing so rarely has its drawbacks. This will be the Serb’s first match since Wimbledon (I’m not counting the mixed doubles hit-and-giggle) and such periods of inactivity may ensure fatigue isn’t an issue but it also means rhythm is lacking.
It’s hard to be sure what Djokovic produces in this match. What we do know is his performances at the Slams this year have been good enough for him to reach three semi-finals.
However, we also know that his body has struggled with the demands – perhaps due to the fact he’s not used to playing very often. The Australian Open saw him quit his semi-final, while there were obvious injury issues at both the French Open and Wimbledon which certainly hindered him. A fall at the latter resulted in a hip/groin issue, one we can’t be sure isn’t still lingering.
Regardless of Djokovic’s physical condition, Tien is a player capable of causing him problems.
He’s long had an impressive return game and his serve has definitely improved during his first full season on tour.
It’s one which has seen him beat Daniil Medvedev, Alex Zverev and Andrey Rublev on a hardcourt already and while I’m not prepared to back him to win this one at 6/1, I do feel the American can claim a set.
Djokovic lost a set in four of his six matches at Wimbledon, including his first-round encounter with Alexandre Muller – you may well remember him appearing to struggle after losing the second set of that one.
Yes, that was on grass, but if you also look at this year’s Australian Open, it’s a similar picture – a set lost in four of six matches, including in round one.
There’s always that doubt about taking on a player who has achieved so much but backing Tien in this market looks worthwhile when looking at the here and now.
Adrian Mannarino v Tallon Griekspoor
Mannarino looks an underdog of interest on day one.
I mentioned him recently during Cincinnati where he landed us a winner by beating Tomas Machac. He also went on to beat Tommy Paul in Ohio before losing a tight encounter to world number one Jannik Sinner.
The Frenchman is resurgent right now having won 16 of his last 21 matches at all levels.
It’s no surprise that his return to form has coincided with this period of the season, which has seen some of the quicker conditions on the ATP Tour. Mannarino likes to come forward so is a player who has always thrived on pacy courts.
It probably won’t play as fast in New York as it did in Cincinnati but it’s usually pretty slick with organisers aiming for medium-fast conditions with their Laykold surface.
While Mannarino has been thriving, Griekspoor has not.
He’s won just one of six matches since being crowned champion in Mallorca just before Wimbledon. During this summer hardcourt swing, he’s lost three out of three, while this venue has proved problematic for the Dutchman in the past – he’s just 3-4 at Flushing Meadows.
All things considered, I like Mannarino’s chances here.
Roberto Carballes Baena v Arthur Rinderknech
Rinderknech is another player who prefers the faster conditions but I’m not sure he should be so short to win this.
Maybe the layers have placed too much weight on his victory over seed Casper Ruud in Cincinnati where he later struggled in the heat and humidity, collapsing and having quit against Felix Auger-Aliassime. Notably, the high humidity is forecast for Sunday with a ‘real feel’ temperature of 32C.
Rinderknech did return to action in Winston-Salem last week but lost in round one.
Carballes Baena is probably best known for his efforts on clay but he doesn’t like things dead slow. Indeed, his best results have come at altitude where the balls have that bit extra pace through the air.
Some of that has translated across to the hardcourts. He was a quarter-finalist in Auckland this season and also made the third round of the Australian Open.
In New York, he’s beaten Holger Rune and Tommy Paul in the past, while he also leads the head-to-head against Rinderknech 2-0, both wins coming in straight sets, albeit those matches were played on clay.
I think 7/4 about the outsider is worth taking.
Posted at 1325 BST on 23/08/25
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