The big guns of men’s tennis, Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz, meet again in Sunday’s US Open final – Andy Schooler previews the showdown.
Tennis betting tips: Daily best bets
1pt over 4.5 sets in Jannik Sinner v Carlos Alcaraz at 11/5 (William Hill)
1pt over 12.5 games in the first set of Sinner v Alcaraz at 11/4 (Sky Bet, bet365)
Jannik Sinner v Carlos Alcaraz (1900 BST)
The US Open final, like Roland Garros and Wimbledon before it, will be contested by the two players nearly everyone expected.
It is actually the first time in an Open Era season that three men’s Grand Slam finals have featured the same two players.
Quite why I didn’t back it from the start, I’m not sure, but there is no time for regrets.
This will be the pair’s eighth meeting since the start of last season so it’s fair to say they know each other’s game well.
Alcaraz has actually won six of those seven matches, although the last was essentially a walkover, Sinner retiring through illness after just five games in Cincinnati.
The last completed one was won, at Wimbledon, by the Italian and so he’ll come into this with that run less of a psychological issue.
Overall, Alcaraz leads 9-5 at tour level but it’s notable that seven of those contests have gone to a deciding set.
That was the case at Roland Garros, where Sinner missed three championship points, and also at the pair’s only previous meeting at Flushing Meadows (in 2022) where again Alcaraz came from match point down to win.
So, has anything changed in recent times, particularly at this tournament, to suggest alternative endings?
Well, Alcaraz is yet to lose a set – he’ll be bidding to become the first man since Neale Fraser in 1960 to win the US Open without dropping a set – with the big takeaway being his serve.
He’s been broken only twice in six matches and says this is the best he can remember serving at a specific tournament.
The forehand also looks a major weapon right now – it caused plenty of damage in Friday’s semi-final against Novak Djokovic.
Yet that display was far from flawless.
There were plenty of errors from the Alcaraz racquet, particularly in the early stages, and I’d expect Sinner to be more ruthless if such presents are offered up.
I’ve written on these pages in recent times abut how I feel Alcaraz’s consistency isn’t as good as Sinner’s, although it’s a factor Alcaraz himself feels he has improved in New York.
He said after his win on Friday: “It's something that I'm working on… not having up-and-downs in the match.
“I'm doing that in this tournament, which I'm really proud about.”
Sinner agrees, saying Alcaraz previously had “more ups and downs”.
The Italian has blitzed several opponents in equally impressive fashion – Alexander Bublik won three games, Lorenzo Musetti seven – but he has lost two sets in New York, the most recent on Friday against Felix Auger-Aliassime where he felt a “twitching” in his abdomen when serving in said set.
After off-court treatment, Sinner said things were soon “back to normal” and that the injury was “nothing too bad”, although it is a slight worry for anyone backing the marginal favourite.
The way Alcaraz is playing, I’m sure he’ll have his backers at odds-against but Sinner’s performance in that Wimbledon final should not be forgotten, while he really should have won in Paris too.
With his seemingly effortless power, he can push Alcaraz back like no other.
If pushed, I’d go with Sinner but I’m far from convinced – I feel there is very little between the players and it really could go either way.
Perhaps Sinner to win with both players to win a set has some value attached to it at 7/4 but I’d prefer to look at some of the sub-markets here.
That closeness between the pair is reflected in the aforementioned deciding-set stat and 11/5 about this going to a fifth does look tempting.
I don’t see physicality being an issue for either man – unless the Sinner injury issue is worse than he’s letting on.
The other bet I like is on a first-set tie-break.
I’ve already pointed out how well Alcaraz has been serving but it’s probably gone under the radar a bit that Sinner has only lost serve four times in his six outings at Flushing Meadows this year.
There’s been a first-set breaker in seven of their 14 previous meetings which again reflects the wafer-thin margin between them.
Getting 11/4 about another is what are fairly quick conditions here looks worth a play.
Posted at 1150 BST on 06/09/25
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