Andy Schooler previews Saturday’s third-round action at the US Open in New York.
Tennis betting tips: Daily best bets
1.5pts Alex Zverev (-4.5) to beat Felix Auger-Aliassime on the game handicap at 10/11 (BoyleSports)
1pt Alexander Bublik to beat Tommy Paul at evens (BoyleSports)
Alex Zverev v Felix Auger-Aliassime
I like Zverev here.
He was quick to put the mental struggles of Wimbledon behind him (he admits he’s working with professionals with regard to that) and is also over the illness which ruined our bet on him in Cincinnati where he had played very well. It’s been plain sailing so far in New York too, with two straight-sets wins.
It should come as no surprise. Fairly quick hardcourts are ideal for a player with a serve capable of topping 140mph, while the bounce is high enough for the German to work his magic off the ground – his backhand is one of the best on the tour.
The forehand can be a slight weakness but I’d make it much more likely that the majority of errors in this match come from Auger-Aliassime.
He produced 45 unforced errors in his first-round win over Billy Harris, who could easily have won the first two sets. That improved against Roman Safiullin on Thursday but this is a big step up in class – and one he’s struggled with in the past.
Since the start of 2023, FAA has won just four of 14 hardcourt matches against top-10 players – and was one of the victories came via retirement.
And when it comes solely to Zverev, the German has very much held the upper hand in their series, winning six of eight. Five of Zverev’s win came in straight sets. The most recent, in Miami earlier this season, was won 6-2 6-4 and Zverev didn’t face a break point.
I’m tempted to back another straight-sets win at 2/1 but it doesn’t take a lot to go wrong in that market, particularly when the courts are fairly quick and break chances can be hard to come by.
Instead, I’m going to back Zverev on the game handicap where he has to cover 4.5 games.
As well as that loss to Zverev in Miami, FAA has also taken pastings from Carlos Alcaraz (Indian Wells) and Jannik Sinner (Cincinnati, winning two games) this season and his game could well unravel if Zverev applies constant pressure, which he is more than capable of doing.
Alexander Bublik v Tommy Paul
Injuries to his abdomen and foot have hindered Paul in recent months and he certainly failed to build momentum as he’s done in previous years heading into the US Open.
His foot was in a boot post-Wimbledon and he spoke the other day about how that has made his ankle less flexible.
He did manage to fend off Nuno Borges on Thursday but needed five sets and a late night to do so and I do wonder how he will back up after that effort.
In contrast, Bublik has breezed through so far, winning two matches in straight sets and remaining unbroken.
His vicious first serve has won 89% of points, while 32 aces have been delivered in six sets. Keeping the second serve competitive will be key for the Kazakh, who has now won 24 of his last 27 matches at all levels.
It’s that new-found confidence factor that enthuses me here.
A three-week break prior to this tournament appears to have kept Bublik fresh and he’s been able to pick up where he left off despite the change of surface.
That’s why I’m prepared to place less weight on the head-to-head, which Paul leads 3-0 at tour level, albeit only one of those matches was played on an outdoor hardcourt. That went to 6-4 in the third in Miami earlier this season.
Paul hasn’t beaten anyone ranked as high as Bublik (24) on this surface since last October in Stockholm and the home hope is definitely the one lacking momentum right now.
I won’t be going big on Bublik – that’s been the road to the poorhouse in the past – but the way he’s playing right now, I do feel he can win this.
Posted at 2010 BST on 29/08/25
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