It’s four profitable previews out of five so far at the ATP Rome Masters for our Andy Schooler. Here’s his look at Friday’s semi-finals.
Tennis betting tips: Rome Masters semi-finals
1pt Daniil Medvedev (+5.5) to beat Jannik Sinner on the game handicap at evens (Sky Bet, Paddy Power)
1pt Sinner to serve the most aces v Medvedev at 11/10 (bet365)
Casper Ruud v Luciano Darderi (not before 1430 BST)
It’s fair to say I’m a tad nervous ahead of this one.
I put Ruud up at 50/1 at the start of the tournament and a win here would give us a decent each-way payout.
He’s 1/3 to claim that victory but I’m on a terrible run of getting big-priced outright picks beaten at this stage of a tournament – and the vast majority have gone off favourites, just like Ruud does here.
Taking that aspect away, I do feel Ruud should win what will be the pair’s first meeting.
His forehand is back firing in a way it wasn’t at the start of this season and he should have the power advantage here.
Bar one set against Karen Khachanov in the last round – a blip almost certainly caused by a lengthy rain delay – Ruud has been very solid in Rome with Lorenzo Musetti and Jiri Lehecka both brushed aside. He’s only lost serve four times in four matches so far.
Darderi should not be written off though.
He’s dealt with the weight of shot of both Rafael Jodar and Alex Zverev in the past two rounds and also beat Tommy Paul.
That said, he should lost to Zverev (saved four match points) while he was also on the rack against Paul, who led by a set and a break before capitulating.
It’s now three final-set wins in a row for the Italian and he must be beginning to feel that amount of tennis, especially on this surface.
I also wonder how well prepared he’ll be for this given his quarter-final didn’t finish until gone 2am on Thursday morning. Asking him to now come out for the afternoon match is a tough ask for the body.
As already pointed out, I’ve no need to get involved again here and the only advice I can offer is that you might want to hedge your outright bet on Ruud if you have one – Darderi’s price of 13/5 allows you to do that easily.
Jannik Sinner v Daniil Medvedev (n/b 1800 BST)
This will be the 17th meeting of these two and the head-to-head currently stands at 9-7 in Sinner’s favour.
However, the bare numbers don’t really tell the story of their rivalry.
Medvedev won the first six but he’s since lost nine of 10, the last three in straight sets. Of those 10, he’s failed to break Sinner’s serve in five with the Italian holding 91% of the time across those matches.
Sinner arrives in immaculate form. He’s now won his last 27 matches, although you could argue he’s faced little of note so far in Rome.
Andrey Rublev has been the only seed faced and he was predictably swept aside, although he did manage to break the Sinner serve, which has been so good during his win streak, and the Italian did look a little jaded as that match wore on. He’s certainly played a lot already during the claycourt season.
If there is a fatigue element involved, playing Medvedev is far from ideal.
The Russian’s defence is among the best in the game and Sinner will need to work harder in this match if he’s to pocket the winners he craves.
Perhaps the most recent of their matches is of relevance here – Medvedev wasn’t far away from Sinner in their Indian Wells final in March, only losing via two tie-breaks. Neither man broke serve that day and while the hardcourts there have sped up, they still aren’t the quickest around.
Obviously the surface has changed now and both men would prefer to be playing on a hardcourt but Medvedev’s confidence is up and it was notable that the former champion spoke the other day about how he has an unbeaten record on the main court at the Foro Italico.
I’m not suggesting he’ll win this and land the 10/1 upset but I do think the price gap is too big.
That has resulted in a game-handicap line of 5.5 and Medvedev has the game to keep things closer than that.
He’s done so in 10 of their 13 previous best-of-three matches (and 12 of 16 in total).
The other bet I like in this one relates to that Sinner service, which I have kept lauding on these pages in recent times.
It’s a shot that’s really improved and pushed him on to another level in 2026 – he’s shown a great ability to consistently go close to the lines and opponents have duly struggled to break.
I’m surprised to see him odds-against to serve the most aces. That’s something he’s managed in five of the duo’s last seven meetings, including in Indian Wells (10-7).
Posted at 09:30 BST on 15/05/26
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