Our tennis man Andy Schooler brings you his outright preview of the Rome Masters.
Tennis betting tips: Rome Masters
1pt e.w. Casper Ruud at 50/1 (Betfred, 1/3, 1-2)
1pt Stefanos Tsitsipas to win the second quarter at 16/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
1pt Tommy Paul to win the fourth quarter at 13/2 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
Internazionali BNL d’Italia
- Rome, Italy (outdoor clay)
Jannik Sinner is the world number one.
If it needed proving, that has undoubtedly been done over the past few months.
Following a surprise defeat at the Australian Open to Novak Djokovic, Sinner has responded by winning four consecutive Masters 1000 events and now he goes for number five.
With his great rival Carlos Alcaraz currently sidelined by a worrying wrist injury, Sinner looks streets ahead of his rivals – make that long country roads – with his demolition of Alex Zverev, the world number three, frankly scary for those looking to topple him.
As short as it may seem, it’s no great surprise to see the Italian up at 4/9 for the title.
For what most people refer to as the Rome Masters, I’m going to break down the draw quarter-by-quarter in a bid to find some alternative bets to Sinner.
Quarter one
The usual domain of Sinner these days is at the top of the draw as number one seed – not good news for the others in this section.
What is interesting, and maybe we’re clutching at straws here, is that Sinner has never won his home event, his best effort coming last year when he lost the final to Alcaraz.
On that occasion his 26-match win streak came to an end; this year he arrives having won 23 in a row.
Clearly that home factor should act as motivation, while Sinner is also chasing slices of history.
Victory would see him join Djokovic as the only man to win all nine of the current Masters 1000 tournaments, while it would also see him complete the clean sweep of claycourt Masters titles in a single season – a feat only previously achieved by the King of Clay, Rafael Nadal, who cleaned up in 2010.
The next highest seed in the section is Ben Shelton, who won in Munich but flopped in Madrid, losing to qualifier Dino Prizmic.
While his big serve got an altitude boost at both of those events, we’ve back down towards sea level here and so these will be slower conditions and that will work against the American.
The names that stand out as potential banana skins for Sinner are Jakub Mensik, a possible third-round opponent, and Arthur Fils, who could face the top seed in the last 16.
Mensik was actually the last man to defeat Sinner, doing so in Doha in February, and his big serve is capable of causing anyone a problem when it’s on song. While you have to feel the conditions here make a repeat success less likely, forecast temperatures in the mid-20s will maybe lift the spirits of the big servers.
As for Fils, he’s been one of the players of the season so far, putting together a 22-6 win-loss record.
However, the recent winner of the claycourt event in Barcelona faced Sinner in Madrid only last week and won just the six games.
Yes, it’s not the easiest of draws for the title favourite but he genuinely looks capable of beating anyone with ease, whatever the conditions, at the moment and I can’t oppose him.
Quarter two
This looks pretty open.
I can take on the leading seeds, Felix Auger-Aliassime and Daniil Medvedev.
Both want faster courts than this, even though the latter did emerge as the surprise champion here three years ago.
Plenty of others could fill the void.
Flavio Cobolli at least gave us a run for our money in Madrid where he lost in the quarter-finals – he has a good chance to go well again in front of his home fans and conditions arguably suit him better here.
Joao Fonseca and Valentin Vacherot will also fancy their chances after both performed well the last time they were playing down at sea level in Monte Carlo.
However, I’m going to take a bit of a punt here and side with a player who has both a strong track record in Rome and has also shown signs of returning to something approaching his best lately.
That man is STEFANOS TSITSIPAS.
In his last seven visits to the Foro Italico, the Greek has made one final (lost to Djokovic in 2022), two semi-finals and two quarter-finals.
A 17-8 win-loss record at the tournament makes it his second best at this level, behind Monte Carlo, where he is a three-time champion.
In Madrid, he defeated Alexander Bublik before losing a final-set tie-break to Casper Ruud, a contest in which he was broken for the only time when he served for the match.
The former French Open finalist is now 4-3 for the season against top-20 players and returning to a venue where he’s played well before may be just what he needs to continue his upward curve.
He’s 16/1 for the quarter which looks worth a small punt.
Quarter three
Moving onto the bottom half – where potential each-way outright value lies – we find Djokovic in Q3.
The third seed’s Rome record warrants plenty of respect – he’s won here six times (the last time in 2022) and also been runner-up on six occasions.
However, this will be his first tournament in two months, the Serb last being seen on a match court when losing to Jack Draper in Indian Wells.
That was only Djokovic’s second tournament of 2026 so he’s short on match play but, to be fair, when he has turned up, the Serb has played well – he beat Sinner at the Australian Open before losing to Alcaraz, while Draper edged him out 7-6 in the third in what was a high-quality contest.
Still, I think it’s a big ask coming in cold on the clay and expecting to go well. Djokovic, who last played on the red dirt at Roland Garros last June, is a player who has usually taken a while to bed in on this surface and you have to go back to 2015 to find the last time he reached the final of his opening claycourt tournament of the year.
Lorenzo Musetti continues to perform well short of his best following injury, Francisco Cerundolo has let me down a bit too often, while Jiri Lehecka, who I backed to win his quarter in Madrid only for him to lose the ‘money match’, looks less suited to the slower conditions here.
Instead, I’m going with another player who showed some good signs in Madrid and that’s CASPER RUUD.
After picking up a calf injury in Monte Carlo, it was difficult to know what to expect from the Norwegian but he progressed well through the draw.
Jaume Munar and Alejandro Davidovich Fokina were both hammered, while Ruud showed his steely, patient side when battling past Tsitsipas on a day when he created 12 break points but only converted one.
His run ended at the quarter-final stage where he ran into the red-hot Alexander Blockx but overall it was a good week for Ruud, especially on serve.
He won’t get the same support on that shot from conditions here but with confidence renewed, I’d expect a decent effort from Ruud.
He’s previously made the semis three times in the Eternal City and his draw gives him a decent chance of adding a fourth this year.
I’ll back him each-way in the outright market at 50/1.
Quarter four
Zverev is undoubtedly the right favourite for this section but he’s far from bombproof.
The German is a two-time champion in Rome and he’s played well so far this season, regularly reaching the last four of events.
Last week, he was a finalist in Madrid but you do wonder how he is mentally after yet another chastening defeat at the hands of supposed rival Sinner, who allowed him just three games.
Zverev hasn’t won an ATP title for over a year now, last doing so in Munich last April, and while he does have a good record here, it’s a quick turnaround into what are considerably different conditions.
In terms of alternatives, the bookies are wise to teenager Rafael Jodar’s emergence.
However, one man they may not be giving the necessary respect to is TOMMY PAUL.
The American has gone well here in the past, making the semi-finals in each of the last two years.
This season he arrives having won the clay title in Houston last month and while he then suffered a surprise defeat to Thiago Agustin Tirante in Madrid, I’m happy to put that to one side.
Paul deliberately didn’t play Monte Carlo but said back in January that his “number one goal” for 2026 was to “take care of the body as much as we can” and play “pain-free”, something he says he managed to do only four times during last season. His fairly light schedule should not be seen as a negative.
Luciano Darderi and Zverev are the seeds in his path to the last eight, where Jodar could await, but Paul leads both head-to-heads. He’s 2-0 up on Darderi, including one match on clay, while he leads Zverev 2-1 (all matches on a hardcourt).
In short, I think the American is a decent-priced alternative the market leaders here at 13/2.
Posted at 14:05 BST on 05/05/26
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling.
Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.
