After two winners from two bets in round one, Andy Schooler previews the second round of the Rome Masters – where the seeds join the action.
Tennis betting tips: Rome Masters round two
1pt Nikoloz Basilashvili (+3.5) to beat Ben Shelton on the game handicap 26/25 (BetMGM)
Nikoloz Basilashvili v Ben Shelton (Sat)
My final bet follows the same pattern – Shelton’s big serve won’t give him the same joy in Rome as it does virtually anywhere else.
The American has won matches on clay this year. He actually claimed the title in Munich but the 500m-plus altitude really helps the power players at that venue.
Having lost early at Madrid, another high-altitude event, Shelton now faces his first match down towards sea level since making the trans-Atlantic trip to Europe and I think that could well be shown in his performance levels.
Admittedly, Basilashvili may not be the player to take advantage.
He’s another who has seen better days but he’s found some form recently, coming through qualifying at the Foro Italico before beating Spanish claycourter Daniel Merida in round one.
Three of the Georgian’s five ATP titles have come on this surface and he’s always been a streaky player, one whose title runs have often come out of the blue.
Basilashvili gets a decent start on the handicap here – 3.5 games – and that’s the angle I want to take.
If Shelton is to win, there’s every chance he has to rely on a tie-break at some stage so even a straight-sets loss for ‘Basil’ could see this bet land.
Previously advised
1pt Vit Kopriva (-1.5) to beat Ugo Humbert at 4/5 (William Hill, 888sport)
1pt Roberto Bautista Agut to beat Brandon Nakashima at 7/4 (bet365)
Ugo Humbert v Vit Kopriva (Fri)
The legendary Boris Becker famously never won a claycourt title – his biggest weapon, the ‘Boom Boom’ serve, being blunted too much by the unforgiving crushed brick.
Humbert is not, and will never be, in the same category as Becker, but he’s still a good, modern-day comparison.
His serve is also vital to his game, one which is attacking and sees him coming forward more than most in 2026.
However, it simply doesn’t get him enough free points on this surface, or allow him to dictate the points in the way he would like.
All this is reflected by the fact that Humbert has now lost 12 of the last 16 matches he’s played on clay, a run dating back to 2024.
So far this season, he’s beaten only novice Moise Kouame. His other results have been a crushing loss to Jannik Sinner and a two-tie-break defeat to Terence Atmane up in the altitude of Madrid – conditions which should have helped him.
Now, he’s back down in slower conditions and looks vulnerable early doors in Rome.
Opponent Kopriva, who delivered us a winner on Wednesday, is the opposite to Humbert. He’s a player who loves to grind it out on the clay and he’ll be much more comfortable in the longer rallies.
Of course, he’ll need to get a read on the lefty serve – the pair have not previously met – but I’ve already highlighted why that will likely be easier than elsewhere.
It’s also worth mentioning at this point that Humbert’s first-serve percentage has dipped rather since he moved onto the clay – it’s not hit 53% in any of his three matches so far.
With this match scheduled last on, it seems likely to be played in the cooler evening conditions which is another factor which will slow things down and play into Kopriva’s hands.
As stated the other day, the Czech has been in fine form on the clay so far this year and I’m happy to back him to claim another scalp here. I’ll do so via the game-handicap market.
Brandon Nakashima v Roberto Bautista Agut (Sat)
Like Humbert, Nakashima is a player who relies upon his serve and so it’s an easy conclusion to make that he’ll struggle more on clay.
He’s 2-3 on this surface so far this season, his only win of note coming against Juan Manuel Cerundolo and even he was ranked down at 69.
Veteran Bautista Agut has sometimes been mistaken for a claycourter – many Spaniards are – but he’s actually produced many of his best career performances on slowish hardcourts.
Still, he’s more than capable on this surface and took down local wild card Francesco Maestrelli in the opening round here in straight sets.
Significantly, he also leads the head-to-head against Nakashima 2-0, both wins coming in straight sets.
Admittedly, RBA’s best days are behind him – he’ll retire at the end of this season – but you would probably have said the same thing a year ago when these two met in Monte Carlo and he won 6-2 6-4.
Only last week, RBA took a set off Alejandro Tabilo at the Aix-en-Provence Challenger tournament before the Chilean went on to claim the title.
He’s worth a shot here at 7/5.
Posted at 09:20 BST on 08/05/26
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