Five of Andy Schooler’s seven round previews won at the Madrid Open. Here’s his look at the first-round action at the Rome Masters…
Tennis betting tips: Rome Masters round one
1pt Vit Kopriva to beat Fabian Marozsan at 13/10 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
1pt Ignacio Buse (-2.5) to beat Lorenzo Sonego on the game handicap at 10/11 (General)
Fabian Marozsan v Vit Kopriva
Kopriva is something of a traditional claycourter with an ability to grind out the long points.
With the ATP Tour having dropped down from the altitude of Madrid (and before that Munich), conditions will be slower in Rome and that should suit the Czech.
Marozsan’s extra power will be dampened somewhat and Kopriva certainly has the form to land the upset.
He impressed during the South American clay swing earlier in the season, making the semi-finals in Rio de Janeiro, while more recently he’s beaten Luciano Darderi en route to the quarter-finals in Munich, and Andrey Rublev in Madrid.
Marozsan can’t match that. Indeed, he’s only won back-to-back matches once since January’s Australian Open and is just 5-5 for the season on this surface.
The head-to-head record stands at 2-2 and while Marozsan did win the only tour-level encounter, that was two years ago and Kopriva has certainly improved since.
I’m not sure the market has the right favourite here and will back Kopriva accordingly.
Lorenzo Sonego v Ignacio Buse
Sonego is the home player, one who made the semi-finals here in 2021, but those two facts appear to have been given too much weight here.
That 2021 event was during strange COVID times with restricted crowds and players social distancing. And even including that run, Sonego holds an 8-10 losing record at his home tournament. This season, he’s just 1-3 since returning to the clay.
Buse is much more at home on this surface. He beat Matteo Berrettini in Marrakech and pushed the in-form Arthur Fils all the way to 7-5 in the third in Madrid recently.
He dropped down to Challenger Tour level last week in Aix-en-Provence and beat a decent clay sort in Francisco Comesana before losing in the quarter-finals to Alejandro Tabilo.
The Austrian is 8/13 for victory here but to bump the price up to something a little more attractive, I’ll back him on the game handicap.
There he’s giving up a 2.5-game start and is on offer at a widely available 10/11.
Posted at 16:55 BST on 05/05/26
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