Andy Schooler brings you his best bets for the first round of the Rome Masters, with both in action on Thursday.
Tennis betting tips: Rome Masters
1pt Marcos Giron to beat Gabriel Diallo at 6/4 (General)
1pt Mattia Bellucci to beat Pedro Martinez at 13/10 (William Hill, 888sport)
Gabriel Diallo v Marcos Giron
To me, this looks a classic case of recency bias.
Diallo stormed through the draw in Madrid last week to reach the quarter-finals. It was the first time this season he had won back-to-back matches at tour level.
But the Canadian enjoyed plenty of good fortune, while conditions were certainly in his favour.
He actually lost in qualifying and then saw seeds scattered out of his path – he only had to beat one, Grigor Dimitrov, to reach the last eight.
The altitude of Madrid was also a factor in Diallo’s good run, aiding his big first serve.
That won’t be the case this week. With Rome down close to sea level, conditions will be much slower and more like traditional claycourt tennis.
That should play into Giron’s hands.
While he’s more of a hardcourt performer, he is a player who likes to construct rallies and has already beaten Learner Tien and Denis Shapovalov since moving onto the European clay.
I’m surprised to see him at 6/4.
I’m convinced he wouldn’t have been anywhere near that price had these two met in Monte Carlo or Barcelona a few weeks ago and while Diallo’s results last week can’t be totally ignored, they are almost certainly being given too much weight by the layers.
Mattia Bellucci v Pedro Martinez
Another underdog I like is Bellucci.
The Italian will be playing in front of a home crowd, probably in the confines of one of the small outside courts. A hot atmosphere looks guaranteed.
Bellucci may well have chosen to play this match on a hardcourt if possible but he has been to the quarter-finals in Marrakech this season and recently beat Cam Norrie in Monte Carlo.
In any case, Martinez looks no great shakes right now.
He was a semi-finalist in Buenos Aries back in February but since then he’s really struggled, going just 3-11.
The Spaniard has lost his last three matches, all in straight sets, and will now have to deal with a motivated Bellucci, plus a hostile home crowd.
That doesn’t look an ideal scenario ideal for ending a poor run of form.
Posted at 1550 BST on 06/05/25
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