Andy Schooler previews the Cincinnati Open quarter-finals, including Carlos Alcaraz’s clash with Andrey Rublev.
Tennis betting tips: Cincinnati Open
2pts Carlos Alcaraz to serve most aces v Andrey Rublev at evens (bet365)
1pt Felix Auger-Aliassime (+4.5) to beat Jannik Sinner on the game handicap at 17/20 (betway)
Jannik Sinner v Felix Auger Aliassime (Thu, not before 2000 BST)
Wednesday was one of those frustrating days when all the bets I mentioned and didn’t actually back landed, while the one I did put up went the wrong way – at least you’d have got your money back due to retirement if you backed it with the recommended bookies.
Adrian Mannarino was one I said had the potential to outperform his odds and that he did, winning 10 games against Sinner.
As against Gabriel Diallo, the world number one seemed happy to wait for his break-point opportunities, rather than really forcing the pace, and a similar approach may well be necessary here.
Auger-Aliassime blows hot and cold but he’s enjoyed a good week in Cincinnati where’s he’s yet to drop a set and has lost his serve only twice in three matches.
Clearly, the level of opponent rises here but it’s interesting to note that FAA has won both previous meetings with Sinner, including one at this very tournament. He’s out-aced Sinner 19-5 across those matches, winning 83% of points behind his first serve.
With Sinner leading the tour for return points won on second serve, FAA will need that first-serve percentage high but he’s ranked seventh on tour on that metric.
Of course, Sinner has improved a lot since that 2022 Cincy clash but that record should cast a few doubts and I’m tempted to back the Canadian on the handicap here.
He gets a 4.5-game start. That’s a line I’m always a little wary of as it can lose to a break in each set if Sinner serves first.
However, after yesterday’s procrastination, I’m prepared to pull the trigger, albeit to small stakes.
Terence Atmane v Holger Rune (Fri, NB 0130 BST)
What a tournament it’s been for qualifier Atmane.
He’d won just one tour-level match in 2025 before heading to Ohio and now he’s taken that up to five in just a week.
Those who thought beating Flavio Cobolli was a flash in the pan have been proven wrong with Joao Fonseca and, most impressively, Taylor Fritz downed since.
Don’t rule out another upset here either. Rune progressed past an injured Frances Tiafoe on Wednesday and no-one has really tested the Dane so far in the hot and humid conditions, which are also faster than ideal for him.
Indeed, the serve is where Atmane could cause problems.
He sent down 13 aces against Fritz as he landed another bet I pointed out had real potential, and he’s now served over 7.5 aces in three of his four matches here.
With this being his first-ever meeting with Rune, who doesn’t have the biggest wing span, I can see the big first serve notching up a few in the first set here and he can cover than line again.
Andrey Rublev v Carlos Alcaraz (Fri, TBC BST)
I wrote in my outright preview about the potential to take on Alcaraz and duly backed Alex Zverev.
It has to be said, my hopes are beginning to fade.
After being taken to three sets by Damir Dzumhur and then safely negotiating an awkward clash with Hamad Medjedovic, who faded in the heat, Alcaraz produced what he described as his “best” match of the tournament so far when defeating Luca Nardi on Wednesday.
He then warned: “I just really wanted to get better every day, after every practice and every match. I think I’m doing it, which I’m really proud about. I’m just really happy with the way I felt the ball today and the way that I moved.”
That can’t be good news for his title rivals and, indeed, Rublev, who trails 3-1 on the head-to-head, the most recent clash having come at Wimbledon last month when the Spaniard won in four sets.
Rublev was also strong as he brushed aside Francisco Comesana in the last 16 but he’ll find Alcaraz’s serve a tougher nut to crack here. The Russian will likely go all guns blazing in a bid to find a chink in the armour and few hit harder, but he’ll need to keep down the unforced errors which often litter his game against the elite and I don’t see that happening.
The angle I like here is in the aces market where you can get Alcaraz at evens to serve the most.
He beat Rublev 22-6 on this front less than six weeks ago and while that match was played on grass, the courts are pretty slick here too.
It’s notable that Alcaraz has also served the most aces in their two meetings at the ATP Finals in Turin, another venue renowned for its quick conditions.
Rublev has also been out-aced by Comesana and Alexei Popyrin in the last two rounds, as well as by Taylor Fritz and Lorenzo Sonego in Toronto where he was critical of the fast conditions.
In conclusion, the even money looks very much worth backing.
Posted at 1205 BST on 14/08/25
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