Tennis betting tips: Preview and best bets for the ATP Tour

Tennis betting tips: ATP Tour

2pts win Denis Shapovalov in the Stockholm Open at 13/2 (General)

1pt e.w. Ilya Ivashka in the Stockholm Open at 25/1 (Sky Bet)

0.5pt e.w. Arthur Rinderknech in the European Open at 28/1 (General)

0.5pt e.w. David Goffin in the European Open at 25/1 (General)

0.5pt e.w. Daniel Elahi Galan in the Napoli Cup at 50/1 (Unibet)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

Stockholm Open

• Stockholm, Sweden (indoor hard)

I’ve often shone a negative light on DENIS SHAPOVALOV in this column this season but if there’s one week when it’s worth backing him, it’s this one.

This venue was the scene of his only ATP Tour title to date (in 2019) while he also made the final here 12 months ago, losing to Tommy Paul.

Four of his five career ATP finals have come post-US Open, while three of the five have been indoors.

And it’s not just history on his side here – current form is his best of the season.

Shapovalov enjoyed the Asian swing, finishing runner-up in Seoul before losing a tight semi-final the following week in Tokyo to the eventual champion (and this column’s nemesis), Taylor Fritz.

Now stepping into conditions he’s clearly happy with, Shapo will surely be looking to continue his good run.

While he’ll probably need to win the Paris Masters if he’s to make the ATP Finals, the carrot of a Turin spot remains at present so motivation is there.

In terms of the draw, things look pretty good.

Shapovalov will open in round two against a qualifier before a likely meeting with either Alex de Minaur, who has played only two matches since the US Open, or Florence finalist JJ Wolf.

Cameron Norrie is his scheduled semi-final opponent but the Briton has also played little of late having contracted COVID in Asia.

The courts play a lot faster than they did a few years ago (they are on Plexipave these days) and I think Shapovalov will prefer them more than Norrie so I’m happy to back him at 13/2.

Stefanos Tsitsipas is the main threat in the top half, and indeed is the bookies’ favourite.

That makes sense with only Novak Djokovic proving too good for the Greek at the 500-level event in Astana recently.

However, following the drop-down to 250s, I wonder whether Tsitsipas will really be going full pelt this week.

He’s already booked his ATP Finals place and will surely be looking to conserve energy for that event at some point over the next few weeks.

Paris in a fortnight offers more on every level – money, points, prestige – so I’m not looking to get with Tsitsipas at 11/4 here.

• CLICK HERE to back Shapovalov with Sky Bet

If he wins, he wins. There will be no regrets.

I actually think he could come unstuck in his first match given he’ll face either ILYA IVASHKA or Maxime Cressy.

I’d expect it to be the former, who at 25/1 is worth an interest in the outright market.

Ivashka is a player we’ve backed in this column on a few occasions this season without success but he looks worth another go.

The indoor conditions should work for him and his strong first serve should win plenty of cheap points here.

He was a quarter-finalist in Sofia recently and last week wasn’t far away from defeating eventual champion Andrey Rublev in Gijon, losing 6-4 in the final set.

• CLICK HERE to back Ivashka with Sky Bet

European Open

• Antwerp, Belgium (indoor hard)

Felix Auger-Aliassime is the tournament favourite in Antwerp and that’s fair enough.

He proved his form over the past week with a run to the final in Florence (he’s due to take on JJ Wolf at the time of writing), while he’s certainly got the motivation to go again in Belgium.

The Canadian sits seventh in the ‘Race to Turin’ which will decide the ATP Finals field. It’s the last qualification slot as things stand so the need for more ranking points is clear if FAA is to make his debut in the end-of-season finale.

Yet, working on the assumption Auger-Aliassime does win the title in Florence, the fact is he is yet to win back-to-back titles on the ATP Tour and it’s possible fatigue could play a part, albeit he does have a first-round bye.

Instead he’ll likely have to face ARTHUR RINDERKNECH in his opening match and that could well be tricky on what are usually fair-paced Greenset courts.

The Frenchman was serving well in Gijon last week, producing 39 aces and losing serve only twice in his four matches en route to the semis, and you’d expect the quicker conditions here to increase the effectiveness of that shot.

His form has returned somewhat since heading indoors – he was also a quarter-finalist in Metz (losing to Hubert Hurkacz) and Tel-Aviv (beat Diego Schwartzman).

Of course, Auger-Aliassime may well prove too good but I think there’s enough there to chance him at 28/1.

• CLICK HERE to back Rinderknech with Sky Bet

The other player I’m interested in at a big price is DAVID GOFFIN.

Unfortunately he’s in the same half of the draw as Rinderknech he looks well drawn and therefore worth backing too.

This is the Belgian’s home event and he was a semi-finalist at it back in 2016.

There are lower expectations these days but he’s always enjoyed playing on a decent-paced indoor court – think his runner-up effort at the 2017 ATP Finals.

He’s also recently bagged one of the best wins of his career, defeating world number one Carlos Alcaraz in Astana.

Admittedly, the fact he withdrew ill (not COVID) last week is something of a concern but he’s been practising at the venue in recent days.

A bit like Andy Murray – also in this field - Goffin’s problem these days is his consistency.

However, unlike Murray, he looks priced up more realistically and 25/1 looks worth a small play.

In the top half, I did consider backing Hurkacz, the top seed who is also chasing an ATP Finals berth.

He’s 9/2 but I just found too many things to put me off.

There’s a tricky draw which could produce a route to the final which involves Jenson Brooksby (or Jack Draper), Dominic Thiem and Gijon runner-up Seb Korda.

Hurkacz also has just one indoor title to his name and he trails potential final rival Auger-Aliassime 2-1 on their head to head.

Of those at bigger prices, it might be worth siding with our friend from Sofia, Marc-Andrea Huesler, again.

His serve should work well here but he’s 22/1 now – as opposed to 40/1 when we backed him in Bulgaria.

Former champion Murray (18/1) could also challenge but, as I’ve already said, he struggles to put runs together these days and I can’t side with him at that price in the tougher half of the draw.

• CLICK HERE to back Goffin with Sky Bet

Napoli Cup

• Naples, Italy (outdoor hard)

There can’t have been many more-chaotic lead-ins to an ATP tournament than the one they’ve had in Naples this week.

The bottom line is the courts haven’t been laid properly with the hosting Tennis Club Napoli blaming the surface manufacturers, Mapei.

They are supposed to be playing on the firm’s Mapecoat TNS Remove surface - which has a court-pace rating of three (medium) – but it appears to have been unable to cope with rain earlier this week.

Yes, that’s right, during the autumn indoor swing, the ATP has decided to throw in an outdoor event.

It’s not a well-known surface but one which has been used at the Biella Challenger event in Italy in the past. That, however, has been played indoors.

Anyway, the court problems resulted in qualifying being moved to a club several miles away and while organisers have insisted the main draw will be played at the Tennis Club Napoli, starting on Monday, the pictures we’ve seen of the courts suggests that may be fanciful.

Clearly this probably isn’t the greatest event to be betting on – bets will stand with most firms if the tournament takes place at another venue – but this is also a situation which could easily produce some surprises.

Anyone who remembers the blue-clay farce of 2012 in Madrid will know how wound up players can get when the conditions go awry and the media centre seems unlikely to be a kind place for tournament organisers to visit this week.

I certainly wouldn’t want to be getting involved with any player at a short price – Matteo Berrettini (5/2) is the favourite, followed by top seed Pablo Carreno Busta (5/1). Both men still harbour hopes of reaching the ATP Finals.

If they can take to the courts knowing full well that conditions won’t be perfect – and it wherever they do play, that now seems likely - then those further down the market will feel they’ve got a decent chance.

It stands to reason that the big guns are more used to playing on better, near-perfect surfaces but many of those who have plied their trade regularly on the Challenger Tour will know all about bad bounces and iffy balls.

The man who stands out for me is DANIEL ELAHI GALAN at 50/1.

He’s played a lot on the South American claycourts at Challenger level so will have learned to deal with some dodgy conditions the hard way.

But, more importantly, he’s actually shown some decent form of late.

He was the man who beat Stefanos Tsitsipas in the first round of the US Open where he went on to reach round three and, more recently, has been to the quarter-finals of the San Diego Open, only losing in a final set to eventual champion Brandon Nakashima.

After two hardly-surprising first-round losses indoors, he’ll be happy to have the sun on his back again and he looks to have a fairly decent draw.

Bernabe Zapata Miralles is first up with Albert Ramos-Vinolas seeded to follow, although the Spaniard is a bit of a fish out of water off the clay.

Lorenzo Musetti, a semi-finalist in Sofia and last week in Florence, may prove too hot to handle at the last-eight stage but at the price I’ll back Galan to small stakes in what could be a wild week in southern Italy.

• CLICK HERE to back Galan with Sky Bet

Preview posted 1555 BST on 16/10/22

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