Tennis betting tips: Preview and best bets for the ATP Tour Rolex Paris Masters

Tennis betting tips: ATP Tour

2pts win Daniil Medvedev at 5/1 (General)

1pt Denis Shapovalov to win the fourth quarter at 13/2 (Coral, Ladbrokes)

0.5pt John Isner to win the first quarter at 25/1 (BetVictor)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

Rolex Paris Masters

Paris, France (indoor hard)

Due to it being the last regular-season event on the ATP Tour, the Paris Masters has often been blighted by high-profile withdrawals.

Not this year.

Of the world’s true elite, only the injured Alex Zverev is missing and with a week’s gap between this tournament ending and the ATP Finals beginning (something which hasn’t always been the case), there’s little reason for the big guns to be holding anything back.

Those looming ATP Finals, contested by the season’s top eight players, still have two spots available.

But I’m not going to let that play too big a part in my decision-making.

The fact is that Felix Auger-Aliassime and Andrey Rublev both have a significant cushion between them and the two other players who could yet force their way into the Turin field – Taylor Fritz and Hubert Hurkacz.

Both of those need to make the final to stand any chance (only one can) but it could all be decided on Thursday with the draw having set up potential last-16 meetings between Auger-Aliassime and Fritz, and Rublev and Hurkacz.

All four contenders are in the top half of the draw, as are world number one Carlos Alcaraz and DANIIL MEDVEDEV. Basically, this is the stronger of the two halves.

Click here to back Medvedev with Sky Bet

I’m certainly against Alcaraz, who has thrashed by Auger-Aliassime in Basel on Saturday and simply hasn’t fired, perhaps understandably, since his US Open success.

I also doubt we’ll see Hurkacz make the run he requires. In several weaker events than this, Hurkacz hasn’t gone beyond the semis during the current indoor swing.

Fritz may have a better chance but a 4-3 Paris record isn’t great, albeit it’s certainly better than Rublev’s 1-4 – it’s usually quicker than ideal for him here.

I opposed the red-hot Auger-Aliassime last week, using the conventional wisdom that making three finals in as many weeks was asking a lot.

He duly achieved that feat – at time of writing he’s due to contest the Basel final against Holger Rune – but few have ever managed four in a row which is what his Paris backers need from him now.

You have to think there’s a strong chance FAA decides enough is enough if he secures his ATP Finals spot early in the week and even if he doesn’t, the Canadian is going to have a lot of tennis in his legs come next weekend when he may well be going up against the best players in the world.

Instead, it’s Medvedev I’m keen to side with here.

His tennis in Vienna was some of the best I’ve seen from him for some time, although it would be amiss not to mention his semi-final effort against Novak Djokovic in Astana recently – one which only ended prior to the final set due to an injury.

His displays in Austria showed that issue is now behind him, Medvedev cruising through to the final without dropping a set.

The Russian likes quick conditions which is what Paris’ Greenset courts have provided in recent years.

He won here in 2020 and last year found only Djokovic too good in the final.

Medvedev has had, frankly, a rather underwhelming season, one in which he’ll also feel aggrieved to have been banned from Wimbledon.

In short, he’s feel he’s got something to prove going into this event and the ATP Finals so I’m expecting a big effort from him in November.

Of course, he may well find Djokovic too good again here and I couldn’t put anyone off backing the Serb, a player who has missed even bigger chunks of the season and will also feel he’s got a point to make.

Having missed the entire North American summer swing due to his COVID vaccination status, Djokovic should have more in the tank than virtually anyone in this field.

That’s certainly looked the case in his post-US Open events with the Wimbledon champion having won in both Tel Aviv and Astana in recent weeks.

He’s lifted the trophy in Paris six times in the past, including last season, and has been handed a good-looking draw, down in the bottom half where the highest seeds all look opposable.

Rafael Nadal is playing singles for the first time since the US Open, rarely does well indoors and hasn’t been fully fit for an awfully long time.

Casper Ruud has gone just 2-3 since his US Open final appearance, while Stefanos Tsitsipas has been in better shape but has also failed to win lesser titles in Astana and Stockholm recently having made it through to the final.

What you can say about Djokovic is he hasn’t played many matches against the elite of late.

He did beat both Tsitsipas and Medvedev in Astana, although the latter came within two points of victory and was only beaten when he decided to call it a day due to an adductor injury.

Essentially Medvedev was right with Djokovic that day and would doubtless fancy his chances in a final rematch here.

I understand why the price difference is there but, for me, the gap is too large and I prefer to back Medvedev at 5/1, rather than Djokovic at 7/4.

One player who could possibly trouble Djokovic in the bottom half is DENIS SHAPOVALOV.

Click here to back Shapovalov with Sky Bet

The Canadian has been in fine form over the past month or so.

At time of writing, he’s due to play in that Vienna final against Medvedev and that follows on from a quarter-final in Stockholm, a semi-final in Tokyo and a runner-up effort in Seoul.

I can certainly see Shapovalov accounting for a rusty Nadal in round three – he’s beaten him twice in six meetings with nearly all those matches being close – and he doesn’t look a bad each-way bet at 40/1.

Yet I’ve mentioned his poor title record in the past (only one at tour level at time of writing) and my record of putting up semi-final losers has hit new levels this season.

With this in mind – and Djokovic a potential last-four opponent – I’m going to side with Shapovalov in the quarter betting.

He’s 13/2 to win the fourth quarter – Nadal and Tsitsipas are the two shorter in the market – and that’s good enough for me.

Finally, let’s take a long shot in what looks a pretty open first quarter.

This is where Alcaraz, Rublev and Hurkacz reside and I’ve already explained why I’m happy to take them on this week.

Matteo Berrettini is also here but he was injured in Naples and subsequently withdrew last week. With no ATP Finals for him this year, I’m not sure what the motivation is for pushing his body if it’s not really 100%.

The aforementioned Rune certainly warrants respect after an Auger-Aliassime style run which has seen him reached three finals in his last three tournaments.

The Dane has been tipped for big things for some time but it’s fair to say he’s now arrived and it will certainly be interesting to see if he can add more scalps at this higher level this week.

Still, the layers are very aware of his form – he’s just 8/1 to win the quarter.

I’m tempted to take a punt on JOHN ISNER at 25s.

Click here to back Isner with Sky Bet

Long-term readers may well know I’ve often been keen to side with the big-serving American here – and with good reason.

He made the final here in 2016 and was runner-up the following season, as well as in 2011.

It’s also fair to say Isner isn’t at the level he once was but it should also be remembered that the serve is, and always has been, the key part of his game.

And it that shot delivers in these conditions, he’ll be hard to beat.

Admittedly he hasn’t played since the US Open but the fact he’s got on the plane to Europe for this one event should tell you he does fancy his chances of a decent run.

It’s only a small-stakes play, but given he’s facing a host of players who don’t exactly look in sparkling form in this market, let’s give it a go.

Published at 1340 GMT on 30/10/22

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