It was one winner, one loser for Andy Schooler in round one of the Cincinnati Open. Here’s his look at the second-round action.
Recommended bets:
1pt over 0.5 tie-breaks in Quentin Halys v Alex de Minar at 6/5 (bet365)
1pt over 21.5 games in Novak Djokovic v Thiago Agustin Tirante at 5/6 (BoyleSports)
1.5pts Daniel Merida to beat Zizou Bergs at 4/5 (General)
Quentin Halys v Alex de Minaur (Sat)
Halys could prove something of a handful for De Minaur in this one.
Having won at altitude in Kitzbuhel, he’s come through qualifying here and is now on an eight-match winning streak.
While the early data suggests the courts aren’t playing as fast in Cincinnati as they did last year, it’s still not slow and his serve should be effective against a player struggling to find his best form.
We took on De Minaur when he faced Cam Norrie in Montreal recently and that proved a good decision. He also lost to Brandon Nakashima in Washington and, having lambasted himself at Wimbledon, it’s clear his game isn’t in the best shape right now.
A confident Halys could take advantage; he’s won both previous meetings and is 5/2 for a third successive victory over the Australian.
However, my approach to this will be via the tie-break market.
With his strong serve and relatively weak return, Halys plays a lot of them – 38 so far in 2026 with 11 of his last 13 matches featuring at least one.
In those matches with De Minaur, five of their six sets played have gone to a breaker, Halys hammering down 38 aces across them.
I’m therefore surprised we’re getting odds-against about over 0.5 tie-breaks in what should be decent conditions for the big server.
Yes, De Minaur’s returning ability warrants respect but he’s not at his best and has clearly had problems dealing with Halys’ serve in the past.
Novak Djokovic v Thiago Agustin Tirante (Sat)
This will be Djokovic’s first match since Wimbledon and it could be awkward.
His Argentine opponent played well in Montreal last week, going unbroken against both Taylor Fritz and Alexei Popyrin before losing to Learner Tien, a match he had his chances in.
Tirante’s big serve – which the Serb hasn’t faced before – may well mean Djokovic struggles to get into a rhythm.
That was the case against Giovani Mpetshi Perricard at the French Open, while I also remember him losing the first set he played in Indian Wells after a similarly long post-Australian Open break (to Kamil Majchrzak).
Tirante to win the first set at 12/5 is tempting (he’s 10/3 to win the match) but I’m going to go for over 21.5 games here.
All of Djokovic’s Masters 1000 matches this season have landed this bet and Tirante’s serve looks to have the potential to get to a tie-break at the very least.
Whenever I look at Djokovic matches, I remember his very best level which could sweep virtually anyone away.
But the fact is that’s been seen less and less in recent years – certainly away from the Slams.
Daniel Merida v Zizou Bergs (Sun)
Merida landed us a first-round winner as, after an iffy start, he dominated Marin Cilic.
The Croatian won only two games in the final two sets as Merida found his excellent ground game and started hitting winners aplenty.
Having won in Umag and then converted that clay form to the hardcourts of Montreal – where he made the last eight – the rising Spaniard is in the groove right now.
Bergs’ movement is likely to be better than that of veteran Cilic but his level has slipped of late.
Since winning on the grass of Eastbourne in June, he’s won only one of the four matches he’s played.
Looking at his hardcourt record, he’s won only four of his last 11 on the surface, all seven losses coming in straight sets.
The Belgian’s serve, especially the second, can be attackable and that’s an area I can see Merida profiting from.
Frankly, I’m surprised to see him available at 4/5 and will happily take that price.
Posted at 09:55 BST on 15/08/26
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