Our tennis man Andy Schooler previews this week’s Western and Southern Open, aka the Cincinnati Masters, with a 50/1 pick among his selections.
Tennis betting tips: ATP Tour
2pts win Daniil Medvedev at 4/1 (General)
1pt e.w. Marin Cilic at 50/1 (General)
Western and Southern Open
- Cincinnati, USA (outdoor hard)
First things first.
I’m writing this preview prior to Sunday’s final in Montreal which sees Hubert Hurkacz meet Pablo Carreno Busta.
However, the result of that match would not influence my thinking on the Cincinnati Masters – the last big test ahead of the US Open which starts in two weeks’ time.
The reason for that is that the finalists in Canada have a poor record in terms of winning this event.
So far this century, only Andy Roddick and Rafael Nadal have completed the Canada-Cincy double (and notably both then went on to lift the US Open trophy too).
And only one other player – Novak Djokovic – has won the Canadian Masters and then reached the Cincinnati final, doing so in both 2011 and 2012.
It’s therefore not hard to put a line through Hurkacz and Carreno Busta.
In addition, Hurkacz had a tough week, requiring three sets in every round to reach the final, while I’d expect conditions here to be a little too fast for Carreno Busta.
Cincy has long been regarded as one of the faster venues on the tour; hence Roger Federer’s seven titles here.
And unlike in Montreal, they’ve now switched from DecoTurf to Laykold courts – a move which has quickened up conditions in most places where it’s previously occurred, most notably at the US Open.
Of those towards the head of the betting, those speedy conditions will likely work against Rafael Nadal and Carlos Alcaraz – and those aren’t the only reasons to oppose the Spanish pair.
For Nadal, this will be his first tournament since injury wrecked his Grand Slam bid, an abdominal issue forcing him out of his scheduled semi-final.
The 36-year-old skipped Montreal after admitting the injury was still causing him pain less than two weeks ago so anyone backing him this week at 11/2 is surely taking an unnecessary risk. In any case, Nadal has won this event just once in his career.
As for Alcaraz, he disappointed again in Montreal, losing his opener to Tommy Paul and there’s no doubt he’s not quite firing at present.
ATP Cincinnati main draw pic.twitter.com/JOaORk5w0J
— Michal Samulski (@MichalSamulski) August 12, 2022
In contrast, Nick Kyrgios and DANIIL MEDVEDEV should both like conditions this week.
Man-of-the-moment Kyrgios continued to impress last week, defeating Medvedev en route to the quarter-finals where he lost to Hurkacz.
For many years, punters have had good reason to fear the mental side of Kyrgios’ game but his current run is suggesting those worries may be a thing of the past.
However, it’s worth remembering that Kyrgios’ previous problems have not simply been mental ones.
His body has often let him down and that was the case again in Montreal where the Australian admitted struggling with an abdominal strain.
“My body hasn’t been feeling great the last week,” he said after the loss. “My body was so stiff after that (an eight-minute bathroom break stoppage) I couldn’t move properly.”
Having made the Wimbledon final and won in Washington, essentially Kyrgios has played a lot of tennis of late – certainly by his standards – and clearly backing him this week looks risky.
His serve is a big reason for his recent success and if the abdomen doesn’t allow him to get full purchase on that shot, he won’t win here.
I much prefer the chances of Medvedev.
Yes, the world number one lost in his first match last week but that’s far from a disaster given that opponent’s form.
It should also mean he’s even more determined to get wins under his belt this week, knowing the US Open is looming large.
Prior to Montreal, the Russian ended his title drought with victory in Los Cabos, easily dealing with Cameron Norrie in the final, so it’s not like form is poor.
And this venue should also bring out the best in him – it certainly has in the past.
Medvedev won here (on DecoTurf) in 2019 and looked on course to triumph again (on Laykold) last year before colliding with a TV camera when leading his semi-final against Andrey Rublev. Rhythm disrupted, he eventually lost in three sets.
At this point it’s probably worth mentioning that the 2020 tournament was actually played in New York due to the COVID bubble which was introduced that year and for that reason I’m ignoring that in terms of ‘course’ history.
A rematch with Rublev could occur in this year’s quarter-finals – it’s a head-to-head Medvedev leads 4-1 – while Stefanos Tsitsipas, who trails 2-7 on the H2H, and the aforementioned Hurkacz are the other leading seeds in this half of the draw.
In short, I feel there’s lots to like about Medevedev this week, especially given the holes that can be picked in some of his main rivals.
Nadal and Alcaraz are the men headlining the bottom half of the draw so this could be a section where some each-way value resides.
Rafa has arrived 🤩#CincyTennis pic.twitter.com/hRWTLRey9e
— Western & Southern Open (@CincyTennis) August 12, 2022
Like Carreno Busta, it’s probably a bit fast for Casper Ruud and Cameron Norrie here but the same can’t be said about MARIN CILIC.
He was the champion in Cincinnati in 2016 and also made the semis in 2018.
The Croatian loves a bit of pace off the surface as it allows his big first serve to win plenty of cheap points.
When the ball does come back, he’s able to do plenty of damage with his forehand.
The French Open semi-finalist looked in good form in the first couple of rounds in Montreal last week, easily dismissing both Borna Coric and Karen Khachanov with his serve looking good.
However, he was beaten in the last 16 by the hot Tommy Paul, a match which highlighted the undoubted problem with Cilic as his service tailed off and he paid the price.
That was also the case when we backed him at Queen’s Club in June where he was upset by Filip Krajinovic in the last four when looking well placed to claim the title.
Perhaps that will be the issue again this week but at 50/1 I’m prepared to take a chance on a player who has generally played well in recent months and one who has delivered at this venue in the past.
He could well be the man to take down Alcaraz in these conditions, while you have to wonder if Ruud and Nadal would be around for potential meetings at the business end of the tournament.
Published at 1630 BST on 14/08/22
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