Andy Schooler previews this week’s action on the ATP Tour – the Open Occitanie in Montpellier – and has 12/1 and 25/1 selections.
Tennis betting tips: ATP Tour
1pt e.w. Ugo Humbert at 12/1 (General)
1pt e.w. Aleksandar Kovacevic at 25/1 (General)
Open Occitanie
- Montpellier, France (indoor hard)
ALEKSANDAR KOVACEVIC made the final here 12 months ago and looks a big price for the 2026 renewal at 25/1.
The American started the new season well Down Under, reaching the semi-finals of the Brisbane International where Cam Norrie was among his victims.
Admittedly, he’s not the player in their field you’d immediately associate with indoor success but he defeated Alexander Bublik and Andrey Rublev en route to last season’s final so clearly enjoys the conditions in Montpellier, where they play on a GreenSet surface.
It hasn’t tended to play as quick as Marseille, which follows on the tour shortly, but certainly isn’t a pudding surface which we’ve seen too much on the ATP Tour over recent years.
Attacking tennis should be rewarded and Kovacevic will go for his shots behind a strong serve – traditionally a good game style for indoor tennis.
What I like most about Kovacevic in this field is his draw.
He’s drawn in what looks the weakest quarter – the second – and looks to have a great route through to the semi-finals.
The 27-year-old starts against a lucky loser following Mackenzie McDonald’s withdrawal, with the winner facing Briton Jan Choinski or a qualifier.
The scheduled seed for Kovacevic at the quarter-final stage is Tallon Griekspoor but he’s played four matches so far in 2026 and is yet to win a set.
OK, heading indoors is probably in his favour but Kovacevic is twice the price of the Dutchman and I know who I’d rather back right now.
Of course, the problem for Kovacevic could come at that semi-final stage.
The top seed is Felix Auger-Aliassime, who is also the man who beat Kovacevic in last year’s final.
I have little doubt the Canadian will attract the cash at 11/2 and I did consider him at that price, largely because he’s a real performer indoors – seven of his eight ATP titles have come with a roof over his head.
But it’s not been a convincing start to 2026 for FAA, who has won only one of his three matches and retired from the Australian Open after cramping.
Such iffy form is a worry given Auger-Aliassime faces a tough opener here against either Hamad Medjedovic or Stan Wawrinka, a player who performed well at the Australian Open before losing in round three. Arthur Fils is also in the top section, making his return from injury.
In short, FAA is no shoo-in to make the semis and so my money will be down on Kovacevic at a nice price.
Having swerved an indoor specialist in the top half, I’m not going to do the same in bottom section.
The third quarter looks a tricky one but I’m still surprised to see UGO HUMBERT up at double-figure odds.
His last eight indoor tournaments have resulted in three titles and overall results of SF-RU-W-RU-L16-L32-W-W.
Across his career, four of Humbert’s seven titles have come indoors, with three of those in his native France.
He’s already made a final (outdoors) in 2026, losing the title match in Adelaide prior to the Australian Open where he got a tough first-round draw and lost to Ben Shelton.
Tomas Machac, Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard and Australian Open breakout Arthur Gea are all in Q3 but only one can face Humbert, who opens against Botic van de Zandschulp. If he wins that, Adrian Mannarino (eight defeats in a row) or claycourter Pedro Martinez would follow.
Hubert Hurkacz is the one the bookies fancy to make the final in this half but the Pole doesn’t have the best record indoors for a player of his ability – he prefers a higher-bouncing ball. For the record, he’s also lost his last two against Humbert.
I’m also not convinced that Hurkacz’s fitness is back to 100% after a long spell out so, for me, 11/2 is too short.
Posted at 17:55 GMT on 01/02/26
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