Tennis betting tips: Preview and best bets for ATP Tour events in Adelaide and Auckland

Tennis betting tips

1pt win Stefanos Tsitsipas in the Adelaide International at 11/1 (Sky Bet, Paddy Power, Betfair)

0.5pt e.w. Marton Fucsovics in the Adelaide International at 40/1 (General)

1pt e.w. Sebastian Baez in the ASB Classic at 16/1 (General)

0.5pt e.w. Gael Monfils in the ASB Classic at 45/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

Adelaide International

• Adelaide, Australia (outdoor hard)

The theory of “backing favourites in week one looks risky” proved an unmitigated disaster as the elite dominated in Brisbane and Hong Kong.

Throw in a 66/1 semi-final loser – in the agonising fashion we saw all too often in 2025 – at the United Cup and it’s fair to say confidence isn’t exactly flowing heading into week two of the season.

Still, it’s not particularly difficult to reapply a similar theory to this event (and the other in Auckland, see below).

This is the final week of preparation before the Australian Open and as I’ve written many a time over the years, backing the big guns in the week before a Grand Slam doesn’t look a great idea.

Any injury niggle this week can result in a precautionary withdrawal – expect to see several across the two venues in the coming days – and while that applies to all players, it’s particularly relevant to those who feel they have a chance of a deep run in Melbourne, one which would bring rich rewards, both in terms of finance and ranking points.

Another big factor for those who feel they have a strong chance in the coming fortnight is what they really want from this week.

Do they really want to head to Melbourne with a full week of tennis in their legs? And do they want to arrive there with little time to adjust to the conditions at Melbourne Park? Remember, we’ve got Saturday finals this week with the Australian Open starting the very next day. While this week’s finalists won’t have to play Sunday, they may well face a Monday start and that’s far from ideal.

It’s fair to say I’m wary of backing any such player and one example in Adelaide would be Tommy Paul.

Admittedly his record here is pretty strong – he holds a 11-6 win-loss record at the event.

However, the devil, for me, is in the detail.

Paul has made two semi-finals and three quarter-finals in Adelaide but never the final. Some will say that’s just a co-incidence/bad luck; others might suggest that he’s not all in come the latter stages for the reasons mentioned above.

I’m also happy to leave Brandon Nakashima alone this week.

He’s a player certainly capable of making week two in Melbourne and he’s also in good form.

However, having reached the final in Brisbane last week, I’m far from convinced he wants another full week of tennis here before heading to that opening Slam of the season.

In terms of who does win, this event certainly looks pretty open, something highlighted by the fact that the favourite, Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, can be backed at 11/2.

At this point, it’s worth me mentioning another factor I give plenty of weight to in these pre-Slam weeks and that’s a strong record at such events.

Having someone onside with a proven record of pushing themselves in the week before a Slam is definitely a positive in my eyes.

Some will immediately turn to 66/1 shot Thanasi Kokkinakis, who has an excellent record at his home tournament, winning it in 2022 and making a couple of other semi-finals.

However, once again, he’s on the comeback trail after long-term injury and I simply can’t be backing him given he’s not played singles since last year’s Australian Open.

He actually faces Sebastian Korda in round one, another player with a strong track record here, although, like Paul, he’s never actually won the title.

MARTON FUCSOVICS is a player who stood out when applying this filter - two of his three ATP titles have come in the week before a Slam.

I wouldn’t be that surprised to see the hard-hitting Hungarian make a run this week, just as he did in Winston-Salem prior to last year’s US Open.

He won the title at a big price that week and is a 40/1 shot this time around.

Clearly there’s not much form to go on – Fucsovics was well beaten in Brisbane in the opening week, although that loss did come against the eventual champion, Daniil Medvedev.

But that record gives us hope and I do like his draw here – he’s in the second quarter where the seeds are Tallon Griekspoor (who lost both of his matches last week at the United Cup in straight sets) and the aforementioned Nakashima.

Fucsovics won’t be for everyone but a small punt at 40s is the call.

However, for the main bet, I’m going to turn to a player I mentioned positively in my recent United Cup preview and that’s STEFANOS TSITSIPAS.

I talked about a close-season reset was what the doctor ordered for the Greek and the signs in Perth were encouraging.

He won all three singles matches, including one against world number nine Taylor Fritz, after which he spoke glowingly about his game.

“(I played) very offensive tennis. I dominated from the baseline at times. I felt like I was pretty solid in those rally exchanges. I’m very glad about my performance. It is one of those wins that adds to my confidence.”

Significantly, he was also delighted with his physical fitness after back problems dominated his 2025 season, ending it early.

“So far everything is good,” he said when asked about that. “It’s great feedback, knowing that sort of thing, knowing that I’m not feeling any aches or pains. I’m actually very pleased that I get to enjoy tennis daily, without any discomfort and pain that might be causing me more stress in everyday life.”

This feels like Tsitsipas rebuilding his career – it’s hard to believe he’ll be truly confident of replicating the semi-final runs in Melbourne of the past (he made the last four, or better, four out of five years between 2019 and 2023).

I therefore suspect he’ll be using this week as another building block and, with that in mind, it’s really encouraging to note that he’s been one of those pre-Slam week performers.

Tsitsipas has won titles in Mallorca (just before Wimbledon) and Lyon (prior to Roland Garros) in the past, as well as making the final in Hamburg in preparation for the French Open in 2020.

The draw could have been kinder – Gabriel Diallo and Paul could both be faced before any semi-final – but I think now looks a good time to side with the talented Greek, who is on offer at 11/1.

ASB Classic

• Auckland, New Zealand (outdoor hard)

Applying the same logic to this tournament, I’m quick to oppose the top seeds, Ben Shelton and Casper Ruud.

I don’t really think either wants to be playing in the final here on Saturday before hopping on a plane to Melbourne that night and having, potentially, just one day of practice in Melbourne.

I’d question their motivation levels for that scenario. If they win at short prices, I’ll deal with that. Preference is to look for a bigger price.

One player I’ve backed on several occasions here down the years is Cam Norrie.

He was raised in Auckland, living there from the age of three to 16, so this very much feels like home.

Notably, Auckland is a venue known for its windy conditions and, having been brought up on such courts, Norrie is at an advantage.

He’s shown that with his results here, making the final in both 2023 and 2019.

I’m such the Scot’s motivation levels are higher than most this week and it’s also worth noting that he’s played in two other ATP finals in the week before a Slam, both in Lyon.

Sadly, though, he’s no bigger than 9/1 and that’s not for me.

That’s largely due to a tough draw which sees him open against qualifier Hugo Gaston, then face either Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard or former champion Roberto Bautista Agut. Then could come third seed Jakub Mensik for a place in the semis.

I’ll be a tad annoyed if Norrie wins this week but price is king and I don’t think he represents value at the current odds.

Instead, let’s take a shot with SEBASTIAN BAEZ.

Now, he’s not someone I’d normally pay much attention to at a hardcourt event but he played really well at the United Cup last week, going 3-0 for his country.

Taylor Fritz, Stan Wawrinka and Jaume Munar were all beaten in what was a cracking week for the Argentine.

Baez was a surprise winner at the Winston-Salem Open, the week before the 2023 US Open, so he’s shown his ability in weeks like this and it might be worth striking while the iron is hot.

While he’s in the top half with Shelton, the rest of his draw doesn’t look particularly threatening, and as already pointed out, the top seed may not be one to rely on this week.

Odds of 16/1 are worth a try.

Finally, I can’t resist a punt on GAEL MONFILS in the bottom half at 45/1.

You don’t often get such odds about a defending champion and I would not rule out a repeat.

The Frenchman has announced this will be his last year on the tour and so I’m sure he’s motivated to go well wherever he plays in 2026.

This will be his opening event of the campaign and the main reason I’m prepared to get with him this week is his excellent early-season record.

Monfils’ body has often let him down but history shows that the close-season rest usually means he’s in his best physical condition at this time of year.

Eight of his 13 ATP career titles have all been won in either January or February so if there’s still one more in the locker, it’s likely to come in the next few weeks.

Monfils won 14 of his opening 18 matches to last season before tailing off.

Another factor which makes me like Monfils more this week is the fact that his wife, Elina Svitolina, has just won the equivalent WTA title in Auckland.

Monfils has been there all week, practising and supporting his spouse during her matches, and the family rivalry will surely spur him as he bids to do similar things this week. He’ll also be better acclimatised than virtually any of his rivals in the field.

OK, Monfils could face Ruud in round two but odds of 45/1 still look big to me.

Posted at 11:00 GMT on 11/01/26

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