Tennis betting tips: Preview and best bets for ATP Tour action in Rio, Doha and Los Cabos.

Tennis betting tips: ATP Tour

0.75pt e.w. Alejandro Tabilo in the Rio Open at 28/1 (General)

0.75pt e.w. Arthur Fils in the Rio Open at 25/1 (bet365, Betfred)

0.5pt e.w. Dusan Lajovic in the Rio Open at 40/1 (General)

0.5pt e.w. Alexander Shevchenko in the Qatar ExxonMobil Open at 22/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes, bet365)

0.5pt e.w. Miomir Kecmanovic in the Mifel Open at 28/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

Rio Open

• Rio de Janeiro, Brazil (outdoor clay)

Carlos Alcaraz suffered a shock loss in Buenos Aires on Saturday, going down in straight sets to Nicolas Jarry, so backing him to win a higher-level event this week in Rio makes little appeal.

It hasn’t been a particularly good start to the season for Alcaraz, who was beaten by Alex Zverev in the Australian Open quarter-finals, and while he’s very capable of winning this event – as he did in 2022 – the price doesn’t appeal at all to me.

In addition, the forecast for Rio includes plenty of rain so we could get some really heavy conditions this week which would make it difficult to hit winners and improve the chances of the real grinders.

One of those, DUSAN LAJOVIC, is of interest at 40/1.

The Serb made the quarter-finals here 12 months ago (his only previous appearance in Rio) before running into Alcaraz, who won a tight contest 7-6 6-4.

That may be the problem in backing Lajovic this week – the pair are due to meet in the semis this time – but even if that showdown occurs, the Serb would not be without a chance.

He’s racked up some impressive wins on clay over the past couple of seasons, defeating the likes of Novak Djokovic, Andrey Rublev, Casper Ruud and Felix Auger-Aliassime.

His draw this week pits him against Daniel Galan first up before a likely meeting with compatriot Laslo Djere, the winner here in 2019.

However, Lajovic beat Djere 6-2 6-4 when they met in this tournament last year and his current form suggests he’d be capable of a repeat – Lajovic made the last eight in Buenos Aires, claiming two notable scalps in the shape of Arthur Fils and Alejandro Tabilo before succumbing to Facundo Diaz Acosta, a player enjoying a career-best week, who went on to reach the final.

In short, there was enough to like about Lajovic in Buenos Aires and I like his chances in slow conditions.

On the other side of the draw sits Jarry but he could be feeling it after a long week in Buenos Aires and he’s yet to reach back-to-back finals on the ATP Tour.

Doing it in Buenos Aires and Rio requires serious physicality and I’m not sure that is one of Jarry’s biggest strengths.

He’s third seed but there’s no bye for him this week and there’s also the looming Santiago event in his homeland to consider – will he want to hold something back for that?

I’m prepared to take him on and will do so by backing two men, ARTHUR FILS and ALEJANDRO TABILO.

• Click here to back Fils with Sky Bet

I mentioned Fils last week but wasn’t really surprised to see him to lose Lajovic, which was a tough first match on clay.

The Frenchman has also had some serving issues of late but a week on the practice court has hopefully allowed him to iron out that problem and the talented teenager looks to have a chance to play himself into this tournament.

He opens against local wild card Joao Fonseca and would then face either Cristian Garin (yet to win a match in 2024 and last seen retiring injured in Cordoba) or Roberto Carballes Baena.

An all-court player capable of dealing with the conditions, Fils could meet Jarry in the quarter-finals in what would be their first meeting and that’s the sort of contest which could prove awkward for a jaded player.

I’m also prepared to give Tablio another go after backing him in Buenos Aires only for him to fall to Lajovic in a three-set battle in round two.

He’s a player who should enjoy heavy conditions, having played much of his tennis in South America, a lot of it on the Challenger Tour where court surfaces often aren’t protected as well as on the main tour.

He’s in the same quarter as defending champion Cam Norrie but the Briton struggled in Buenos Aires last week, losing his opener. Sebastian Ofner is the other seed.

I don’t think that’s a bad draw for Tabilo, who has won 24 of his last 28 matches at all levels, a run which took in the title in Auckland last month and two Challenger crowns on clay at the back end of 2023.

My main concern is that he’s up against local hope Thiago Seyboth Wild in round one. That said, the Brazilian will need to raise his level to progress from that one – he’s gone 1-7 so far in 2024 and won just four games in defeat to Andrea Vavassori last week.

At 28/1, Tabilo looks worth a small play.

• Click here to back Tabilo with Sky Bet

Qatar ExxonMobil Open

• Doha, Qatar (outdoor hard)

This looks a tricky tournament to call.

For a start, most of the field are moving from the indoor conditions of Europe to outdoor ones in the Middle East, where they also compete in Dubai next week.

Then there’s the variable conditions of Doha to contend with. While the Plexicushion courts aren’t the quickest, the speed isn’t too sluggish in the heat of the day, but they tend to be considerably slower once the temperature drops in the evening.

Scheduling is tough for a punter to second-guess, although it’s fair to say the higher seeds are more likely to play at night with the marquee match usually scheduled third on the order of play.

They include tournament favourite Andrey Rublev, who certainly has the ability to claim this title – he’s the only top-15 player in the field.

A winner here in 2020 – the last time the event was held in its original early-January slot – Rublev is no bigger than 3/1 for a repeat four years on but I’m not particularly enthused.

He was beaten by Alex de Minaur in Rotterdam’s quarter-finals last week and generally isn’t a player I like to back as a favourite.

I don’t think he’s at his best right now and while I wouldn’t be surprised were he to lift the trophy next Saturday, I won’t be too regretful if he does.

There are plenty of other players who have shown some decent form in recent weeks but I’m reluctant to get with several of them.

Alexander Bublik is 8-3 so far in 2024 and won the title in Montpellier earlier this month.

However, the Kazakh has never won back-to-back matches in Doha or Dubai – seven visits in total – and I’d want more than 8/1 to support him this week.

Ugo Humbert is another recent champion – this column backed him at 12/1 when he won in Marseille – but, like Bublik, he’s stepping out of his favoured indoor conditions and the desert winds may well disrupt a serve which was in fine working order in the south of France.

Tallon Griekspoor, our 50/1 pick who made it to the Rotterdam semis, will also have his backers this week at 16/1.

However, last week would have been a hard one mentally, playing in front of his home fans, and it would be no surprise to find the Dutchman a little jaded.

I was tempted by a couple of old-timers, who have strong records in this event.

Roberto Bautista-Agut is a two-time champion (2022, 2019) and also made the final in 2021.

However, after making a decent start to his injury comeback in Hong Kong in the opening week of the season (made QFs), the Spaniard has really struggled for wins and while he’s clearly going to enjoy the conditions, I don’t see enough in his form to warrant backing him at 30/1.

I came close to giving Gael Monfils another chance given he’s 22/1 this week.

The Frenchman is another to have won the title her before, in 2018, and I’ve mentioned already this season about how history shows the best time to back him is in the opening two months of the year when his body is fresh – six of his last eight titles have come during that period of the season.

After beating Denis Shapovalov, he tested Jannik Sinner in Rotterdam last week, eventually going down in three sets, which is a sign he’s picking up after some disappointing early-season defeats.

He’s pretty well drawn – the seeds in his quarter are Humbert and Lorenzo Musetti – but I’ve had a few too many disappointments of late with Monfils so it’s to another 22/1 shot I’m turning.

ALEXANDER SHEVCHENKO is another player who has shown some decent form in the early weeks of the campaign.

• Click here to back Shevchenko with Sky Bet

The Kazakh has certainly enjoyed the recent indoor swing, making quarter-finals in Montpellier and Rotterdam.

A look into the details is encouraging. It took eventual champion Bublik (in a final set) to stop Shevchenko in Montpellier, while in Rotterdam Holger Rune was beaten before a narrow three-set loss to Grigor Dimitrov.

In between, there was an early exit in Marseille, although losing to top seed Hubert Hurkacz was hardly an awful result.

Maybe something similar will happen here – if he beats Richard Gasquet in round one, Shevchenko will meet Rublev.

However, that looks an awkward opener for the Russian. The pair are yet to meet.

A player on the up, Shevchenko looks ready to start winning some big matches and if he manages to do that against Rublev, the draw would really open up.

It’s not a tournament for big stakes but a small bet on Shevchenko at 22/1 looks worth a try.

Mifel Open

• Los Cabos, Mexico (outdoor hard)

Since its inception in 2016, this tournament has always been won by one of the top three seeds with the last three editions going to the number one.

This year, that honour goes to Alex Zverev with the second seed being defending champion Stefanos Tsitsipas and the third, Alex de Minaur.

While the sluggish Proflex hardcourts should be well suited to De Minaur’s game – he won in Acapulco last season where they play on the same surface – I’m happy to draw a line through the Aussie.

He has to make the transition from the indoor hardcourts of Rotterdam, where he lost in Sunday’s final to Jannik Sinner, and make the lengthy trip to the Pacific coast of Mexico.

It’s not an insurmountable problem but certainly far-from-ideal scheduling and there has to be a chance he doesn’t even make the start line.

Zverev is the right favourite at 9/4 but there is a nagging doubt over how he responds to the agonising defeat he suffered in his last match.

The German, another former champion in Acapulco, led his Australian Open semi-final with Daniil Medvedev by two sets to love but couldn’t get over the finish line. It certainly has the potential to leave some scar tissue.

Down in the bottom half, Tsitsipas is more than twice the price of Zverev and, given he holds a 9-5 winning record against his potential final opponent, I was tempted to side with the Greek at 5/1.

The problem is it’s been some time since we’ve seen the best of Tsitsipas.

He played OK at the Australian Open, another event at which he has a strong historical record, but when he needed to find an extra gear he was found wanting, losing to Taylor Fritz in the last 16.

Basically, I’m reluctant to pull the trigger.

There’s also another reason to think this is the year to swerve the top seeds in Los Cabos.

The tournament has moved slots in the calendar – it has always previously been played as part of the lead into the US Open in late July.

This year it has been placed next to Acapulco, providing players with two weeks in Mexico, but that event is very much a bigger brother, offering twice the number of ranking points and more than double the prize money.

With that in mind, there’s more than a chance that this week will be used as prep for the more important event ahead.

In what looks a pretty unattractive betting heat, I’m therefore prepared to take a chance on an upset by siding with MIOMIR KECMANOVIC in the bottom half.

• Click here to back Kecmanovic with Sky Bet

The Serb made the semis here two years ago and has also performed well on the slow Indian Wells hardcourts in the past, twice making the quarter-finals in the Californian desert.

Kecmanovic reached the last 16 of the Australian Open last month, beating top-25 stars Tommy Paul and Jan-Lennard Struff in Melbourne, and while a couple of disappointing defeats have followed (one after a switch to clay) this venue should suit.

Rinky Hijikata is a tricky opening opponent but I feel the slower conditions here will work against the Australian. A qualifier would follow in round two before a potential clash with Tsitsipas, who is yet to face Kecmanovic.

I was a little surprised to see the world number 40 available at 28/1 so a small each-play play is the advice.

First posted at 1355 GMT on 18/02/24; updated at 2055

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