Wimbledon is over but tennis never stops – Andy Schooler previews this week’s ATP Tour events in Bastad, Gstaad and Umag.
Tennis betting tips: ATP Tour
2pts Mariano Navone to win the Nordea Open at 15/2 (Betfred)
1pt e.w. Yannick Hanfmann in the EFG Swiss Open at 33/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes, Betfred)
1pt e.w. Arthur Rinderknech in the EFG Swiss Open at 14/1 (bet365, Betfred)
0.5pt e.w. Daniel Merida in the Plava Laguna Croatia Open at 40/1 (Betfred)
Nordea Open
- Bastad, Sweden (outdoor clay)
Andrey Rublev heads the field and betting for this event, one which helps kick-off a two-week stint for the ATP Tour on the European clay.
It essentially offers the dirtballers their final chance of the season to shine and allows those not interested to rest up after Wimbledon before the summer hardcourt swing begins in North America.
Rublev hasn’t played in a ‘250’ event such as this since the opening week of the season when the motivation was much higher than it is now, while his last triumph at this level came in Hong Kong two and a half years ago.
He has won this tournament before, in 2023, but after a winless grasscourt season, I’m not wanting to back him as favourite here.
Luciano Darderi is the second seed and he’s the clay sort who does go well in this period, knowing his chances on the faster surfaces are less. Indeed, he’s defending the title this year.
I wouldn’t be surprised if he won again to add to his Santiago title claimed earlier in the season, but he’s in a tough quarter which includes former champion Nuno Borges, Grigor Dimitrov, who shone at Wimbledon to recharge his confidence, as well as Daniel Altmaier and Hugo Gaston, both of whom have shown some good signs of late, Gaston making a Challenger final over the weekend.
Instead, I’m turning to a player in the softer third quarter and that’s MARIANO NAVONE.
Like Rublev and Darderi, he gets a bye in the first round as one of the top four seeds and the Argentine looks the class of this section, which includes three qualifiers.
ELATION FOR ARGENTINA 🇦🇷
— Davis Cup (@DavisCup) January 31, 2025
Mariano Navone secures a 3-2 victory over Norway with his first ever Davis Cup win, defeating Nicolai Budkov Kjaer 4-6, 6-3, 6-4 🤯#DavisCup pic.twitter.com/pPqWKQQuEu
He’s already won a 250 event this season, in Bucharest, while he was runner-up in Geneva where he beat Casper Ruud.
Navone also defeated Felix Auger-Aliassime in Rome, while he took a set off French Open champion Alex Zverev in Madrid.
He lost to Jakub Mensik in a final-set tie-break at Roland Garros – no disgrace there – and even on the unfamiliar grass, he will have taken something from a close first-round loss to Flavio Cobolli – he won a set and lost two tie-breaks in that contest.
In short, Navone has pretty strong form and, as a clay specialist, should be fully motivated for this coming fortnight.
EFG Swiss Open
- Gstaad, Switzerland (outdoor clay)
Casper Ruud has a strong reputation for Hoovering up 250 claycourt titles – he’s won 12 of them over the years.
I particularly remember him winning three in as many weeks at this time of year in 2021, including this one in Gstaad.
I’m not particularly surprised to see him as a short-priced favourite this week but he looks worth taking on this time.
Unlike most of the elite players, the Norwegian has appeared in this period of the season regularly over the years but since winning here again in 2022, he’s failed to pick up a title.
Last season he lost in the Gstaad quarter-finals, while in 2024 he was beaten in his opener in Bastad.
In July 2023, he failed to win in either Bastad or Hamburg, the latter actually being at 500 level.
I think that’s a record which is of concern if you are thinking of backing Ruud at around 13/10 and I’ll look elsewhere.
While conducting that search, it should be noted that this is a high-altitude venue – Gstaad is a lovely chocolate-box town up in the Swiss Alps.
They play at more than 1,000m above sea level, meaning the balls fizz through the air that bit faster. That can boost the big servers, but you also need to have good control off the ground to ensure you aren’t consistently hitting the ball long.
As I’ve written on many an occasion on these pages, some players thrive in such conditions and one of them is YANNICK HANFMANN.
He was placed at a big price for this column up in Santiago earlier this year.
It was the third ATP final of his career and all of them have come up at a significant altitude.
One was right here in 2017, while the other came across the border in Kitzbuhel in 2020.
Hanfmann opens against Pedro Martinez, who hasn’t enjoyed the best of seasons, with the winner to face third seed Valentin Vacherot.
He’s one of those with a serve which could go well in these conditions but it will also be his first match since the French Open, injury there having ruled him out of the grasscourt campaign.
Facing Hanfmann at altitude in your first match for two months is far from ideal, I’d suggest.
Raphael Collignon could follow but I think that’s a route which gives the German a good chance of getting his teeth into this draw and I’m happy to back him at 33s.
Up in the top half, I’m also going to side with ARTHUR RINDERKNECH.
I was impressed with his serving at Wimbledon where he almost pushed Novak Djokovic to a fifth set.
The Frenchman delivered 74 aces in his three matches in SW19 and I’d expect some big numbers of that front this week.
His serve should be difficult to break in these conditions and, while he’s not got a track record of success in Gstaad, he has performed well in nearby Kitzbuhel, twice making the semis there.
Rinderknech has a bye in round one, meaning he only needs to win three matches to claim a place and, at 14/1, he looks worthy of support.
Plava Laguna Croatia Open
- Umag, Croatia (outdoor clay)
This tournament has had plenty of big-priced winners and finalists over the years, several of them having come through qualifying.
Perhaps Marco Cecchinato could be the qualifier to shine this year – he’s won this title in 2018 and made the quarter-finals four years ago.
The Italian has played only two matches off the clay in the past 12 months and mainly competes on the Challenger Tour these days, on which he reached the final in Milan earlier this month.
At time of writing, the qualifiers have yet to be played but, when they are, he might be worth a second look.
This point had 𝙚𝙫𝙚𝙧𝙮𝙩𝙝𝙞𝙣𝙜! 🤩
— TNT Sports (@tntsports) January 12, 2026
Daniel Merida and Oliver Crawford were putting on a show for the Melbourne crowd on the first day of Australian Open qualifying 🇦🇺#AusOpen pic.twitter.com/f1DaaIdGlU
In the here and now, the one at a big price I like the look of is DANIEL MERIDA.
He’s new to the main tour this season but has already reached a final – on the clay of Bucharest – and holds a winning record, 7-6, at ATP level.
One of those victories was against Corentin Moutet in Madrid and, more recently, he took a set off Daniil Medvedev at Wimbledon.
The Spaniard will be happy to be back on the clay, while I don’t think he’ll be bothered by the temperatures which will top 30C again on the Adriatic coast.
He opens against Slovenian wild card Ziga Sesko and would then meet Tomas Martin Etcheverry, who has been disappointing since the South American clay swing in February.
Alexander Blockx (would like it a bit quicker) and Flavio Cobolli (quick turnaround after a disappointing QF loss to Arthur Fery at Wimbledon) could be faced before the final but I think Merdia is worth a small each-way bet at 40/1.
Posted at 19:55 BST on 12/07/26
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