Andy Schooler brings you his best bets for the first round of the National Bank Open in Toronto, which gets under way on Sunday.
Tennis betting tips: National Bank Open
1pt Roberto Carballes Baena to beat Camilo Ugo Carabelli at 11/8 (Sky Bet)
0.5pt over 12.5 games in first set of Reilly Opelka v Sebastian Ofner at 9/4 (bet365)
Sebastian Ofner v Reilly Opelka (Sun)
Opelka returned to his favoured hardcourts in Washington last week where he wasn’t far away from beating seed Daniil Medvedev.
He should get the speedy conditions his massive serve thrives in here with the relatively new Har-Tru courts of Toronto rated medium-fast by the ITF’s court pace rating system.
Ofner, meanwhile, will be playing only his second hardcourt match in almost 18 months and his first since last year’s US Open. This isn’t his domain.
And he’s also been struggling in recent weeks on other surfaces, arriving here on the back of three consecutive straight-sets defeats.
That familiarity with conditions can help Opelka win but since I started writing this on Saturday, what the bookies had as a 50-50 match now sees Opelka as 4/6 favourite.
I’ll instead back a first-set tie-break at 9/4.
That’s occurred in seven of Opelka’s 19 hardcourt matches which have seen the first set completed this season.
That huge serve and a weak return game is responsible, although I’m not hugely convinced Ofner will keep his side of the bargain following those disappointing results of late.
I’ll therefore keep stakes to a minimum.
Roberto Carballes Baena v Camilo Ugo Carabelli (Mon)
Ugo Carabelli has been dealing with a thigh problem virtually all season and he was back receiving treatment on it during the short clay swing in Europe.
He was still playing in Croatia on Friday night so this is a quick turnaround involving a trans-Atlantic flight.
The Argentine has little hardcourt experience to call upon either – this will be just his seventh match on the surface at tour level, with only two of the previous six won.
In short, I can certainly see Ugo Carabelli deciding this isn’t the week to really push things.
Carballes Baena is capable of beating even a fully fit Ugo Carabelli.
He did so in their only previous meeting and has won several hardcourt matches already this season, reaching the quarter-finals in Auckland and the third round of the Australian Open.
Both of those events are held on relatively fast courts and he should get similar conditions here.
Carballes Baena often impresses at the quicker high-altitude events and while he doesn’t get such conditions in Toronto, the speedy surface could work in his favour in this match-up.
It did in Shanghai at the back end of last season where he took down Arthur Fils and I’m not at all convinced he should be out at 11/8 for this one.
Posted at 0920 BST on 27/07/25
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