Tennis expert Andy Schooler previews Friday’s semi-finals at the Mutua Madrid Open.
Tennis betting tips: Madrid Open matches
1pt Casper Ruud to beat Francisco Cerundolo at 4/5 (General)
1pt Jack Draper (-2.5) to win the aces handicap v Lorenzo Musetti at 4/5 (bet365)
Francisco Cerundolo v Casper Ruud (not before 1500 BST)
Cerundolo was let off the hook in the last round, fortunate to progress to this stage, and I’m ready to take him on again, albeit with confidence drained to low levels.
Ruud is yet to drop a set at the tournament and appears to have got to grips with the faster conditions up at altitude; his mature performance against Daniil Medvedev in the last eight showed that.
It’s 2-2 between the pair on clay but Ruud has significantly won the last two in straight sets.
For me, he’s the better server – that’s born out in the head-to-head combined hold/break stats on clay (103-97) – and that could give him the slight advantage.
Ruud is the narrow favourite having been backed in since the markets were chalked up and, for me, that’s the right call.
Jack Draper v Lorenzo Musetti (not before 1900 BST)
Here are two players I regret not backing more this season.
I’ve certainly had opportunities but, foolishly, turned them down.
Both have already played in Masters 1000 finals this season and one of them will do so again on Sunday.
Clearly these two are going to play a significant part on the ATP Tour in the coming months and years and, right now, the pair are in fine form.
Musetti has given little away in his last two rounds, against Alex de Minaur and Gabriel Diallo. Notably, both of those matches were played in the night session, as this contest will be.
A natural claycourter, the Italian has been striking he ball so well from the baseline but the same can be said of Draper, who is learning fast on this surface.
The Briton will surely bring some sort of psychological advantage to the court given he’s won all three of the pair’s previous meetings and is yet to drop a set in their series.
Admittedly, all three were played on an indoor hardcourt and Musetti will doubtless by thinking the different surface can lead to a different outcome.
However, one of the big struggles he’s had with Draper is on return with only three breaks of serve in those three matches.
It’s now worth pointing out that Draper has been broken only once in four matches in Madrid. In total, he’s faced only three break points with none across the last two rounds which have seen Matteo Arnaldi and Tommy Paul crushed.
Draper wins this for me although 1/2 isn’t really a backable price, at least not on these pages.
5/4 about another straight-sets success is certainly worth considering though.
There could also be an aces angle.
Draper has won the three previous counts by margins of 6, 7 and 9 and while the surface change makes aces less likely, the altitude does help on that front.
The handicap line has Draper giving up 2.5 aces, a line he can cover given how well he’s been serving.
Posted at 1100 BST on 02/05/25
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.
