Thursday is quarter-finals day at the Mutua Madrid Open. Andy Schooler previews the action, including Jack Draper’s clash with Matteo Arnaldi.
Tennis betting tips: Madrid Open matches
1pt Daniil Medvedev to beat Casper Ruud at 7/5 (Paddy Power)
1pt Jakub Mensik to beat Francisco Cerundolo at 6/5 (General)
Casper Ruud v Daniil Medvedev (1200 BST)
Medvedev looks an interesting price here given their pair’s head-to-head record.
The Russian leads 3-0, winning each match in straight sets, although they have yet to meet on a claycourt.
Without knowledge of that H2H, I’d expect most people would immediately favour Ruud on clay against Medvedev, yet up at altitude in Madrid, the Russian surely has a better chance than down, say, in Rome.
That H2H shows Medvedev has dominated behind his own serve, with Ruud struggling much more on that front, but I have written on these pages before about how the former US Open champion’s service has dipped over the past 12 months or so.
I do wonder how much scar tissue Ruud will bring into this one, though.
He doesn’t have a great record against his fellow elite and a career 8-12 win-loss record against top-10 players on his favourite clay surface is surprisingly poor for a player who has contested two Roland Garros finals.
While not completely convinced, I’m tempted by the Medvedev price in these conditions.
With rain forecast, we could also have the roof closed for this one which has the potential to help Medvedev further.
A small bet on the underdog is advised.
Francisco Cerundolo v Jakub Mensik (not before 1400 BST)
I missed the boat big style the other day regarding Cerundolo.
Having made the case for why he could beat Alex Zverev, I bottled out of backing him, essentially because I’d already tipped the German in the outright market.
Having been 7/4 to win that last round, the Argentine is going off favourite here at 7/10 and I think it would be wrong to jump on now at that price.
Instead, Mensik is certainly worthy of consideration.
The Miami champion has now won nine of his last 10 matches and key to that run has been how well he has served.
He’s only been broken nine times in those 10 matches with the change of surface making little difference.
Neither Ben Shelton nor Alexander Bublik could break the Mensik serve across the last two rounds and while Cerundolo is clearly a better returner than those two, he could still find himself pinned back and under pressure from the booming first delivery which works so well up in Madrid.
Admittedly, Cerundolo did win the pair’s only previous meeting, in Beijing last autumn, but Mensik has improved a lot since then and his current form should give him great belief.
Jack Draper v Matteo Arnaldi (after Cerundolo match)
Draper feels like another one who got away this week.
I felt his third-round match with Matteo Berrettini could be crucial in this half of the draw and that theory is looking correct.
What undoubtedly wasn’t correct was the decision to side with Berrettini, who moved a break up early on before losing the first set on a tie-break and then retiring injured.
Draper now enters the quarter-finals as tournament favourite and seemingly with a great chance of adding this Masters title to the one he earned in Indian Wells.
I expect him to progress through this match, although having already dismissed Novak Djokovic and Frances Tiafoe, Arnaldi should not be discounted in what will be the pair’s first meeting.
He has enough power to ensure he won’t be overwhelmed by Draper but I feel the Briton just does everything that bit better.
Draper will be a top-five player next week if he wins this match and, like Mensik, looks very much part of the new breed which looks ready to take command of the ATP Tour.
A 2-0 win at odds-against would be the bet I’d take if pushed, although preference lies elsewhere on Thursday.
Posted at 0830 BST on 01/05/25
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