Both of Andy Schooler’s round previews so far have produced a profit at the BNP Paribas Open. Check out what he’s backing in round three at Indian Wells.
Tennis betting tips: Indian Wells round three
1.5pts 11+ games in first set of Tallon Griekspoor v Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard at 19/20 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
0.5pt Grigor Dimitrov to beat Gael Monfils at 5/4 (betway)
Tallon Griekspoor v Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard
Backing the tie-break delivered us a couple of decent winners in Griekspoor’s opening match and I’m happy to go down that toute again here.
The Dutchman has now played three breakers in six sets at this tournament, continuing a strong tie-break trend – he’s now played at least one in nine of his last 11 matches.
His data helps show why.
Griekspoor has broken only 12% of the time in 2025, holding in 87% of his own service games.
But that’s nothing compared to Mpetshi Perricard, who is up at 95% holds so far this season, while he’s only broken a paltry 4% of the time.
The huge-serving Frenchman has gone unbroken in six of his nine matches in 2025, while he’s failed to break serve in four of them.
With this being the first time these two have met, I’d expect both men to continue their struggles on return and, if that’s the case, a first-serve breaker could well be on the cards.
That’s occurred in five of Griekspoor’s seven career matches at this venue and that statistic could well be extended here.
BoyleSports offer 11/8 about a first-set breaker, although I’m going to take the safety net offered by Coral – they go 19/20 about there being 11+ games in the opener which gives us the possibility of a late choke ad a subsequent 7-5 set.
Sky Bet’s 10/3 about over 1.5 tie-breaks is also worth considering – Griekspoor played two against Alex Zverev in the last round.
Grigor Dimitrov v Gael Monfils
I was a bit surprised to see Dimitrov available at 5/4 here.
Yes, he’s had his injury problems this season but he came through the last round fine, posting a straight-sets victory over Nuno Borges and it should not be forgotten that he’s ranked higher by 27 places.
I think the head-to-head is a factor which is pushing Monfils’ price down. He’s up 4-2 but all bar one of those matches was played in 2016 or before.
Last season’s only meeting – at Wimbledon – was won in straight sets by Dimitrov and this is a venue at which he’s played well in the fairly recent past with the Bulgarian making the semis in 2021 and the quarters the following year.
A small price-based play looks worthwhile, although consider going with a firm which will void if there’s an injury withdrawal. betway, who are top price about Dimitrov, are one such bookmaker.
Posted at 1034 GMT on 09/03/25
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