After making a profitable start to the Rolex Shanghai Masters, Andy Schooler is back with his best bets for round two in China.
Tennis tips: Shanghai Masters R2 best bets
1pt over 12.5 games in first set of Novak Djokovic v Hubert Hurkacz at 7/4 (bet365)
1pt Pablo Carreno Busta to beat Alejandro Tabilo at 7/5 (Paddy Power, betway)
0.5pt Daniel Altmaier to beat Ben Shelton at 11/2 (General)
Ben Shelton v Daniel Altmaier (Fri)
After dropping the first set 6-1, Altmaier was impressive in his first-round match against Holger Rune.
He was striking the ball with precision and power from the baseline and showed his ability at the net, too, coming forward when the opportunity arose.
I think a similar display has the chance of punching some holes in the Shelton defence, especially on the backhand side, and the German does look a big price at 11/2.
This is Shelton’s one and only stop on the Asian swing so he’s yet to settle into match conditions in China. It’s worth noting that was also the case in 2025 when he lost in his opener here to David Goffin.
Admittedly, Shelton was in fine form during the North American hardcourt swing, a run culminating in the US Open final, although that will have taken plenty out of him.
He continued to play immediately after that final defeat to Alex Zverev but lost both rubbers in Czechia as USA bowed out of the Davis Cup.
He’ll hope the two-week break will have done him good but I wonder just how much he’s done on court – an Instagram post from that period shows him partying back in the US.
Interestingly, Altmaier has already beaten Shelton this season, albeit that victory came on clay in Hamburg.
All things considered, a small bet on the underdog here looks worthwhile.
Alternatives include Altmaier to win the first set (17/5), although he did start slowly against Rune which is rather off-putting, or Altmaier on the handicap where he gets a 4.5-game start.
Novak Djokovic v Hubert Hurkacz (Fri)
When I saw the draw, this immediately looked a potentially awkward opener for Djokovic, who will be playing just three days after winning the title in Beijing.
Admittedly, that was before I realised the Serb led the head-to-head 8-0. I’m therefore not ready to play Hurkacz as a potential winner at 11/8, although in many ways the initial point still stands.
A quick turnaround to faster conditions makes things harder than they might have been, while Hurkacz’s serve has caused Djokovic problems in the past, even though he has ultimately managed to conquer those issues.
The Pole is certainly serving well at the moment.
He’s played the full month of the Asian swing and across his 10 matches so far, he’s been broken only nine times. Take out his semi-final in Beijing – when he withdrew when struggling against Alex de Minaur – that becomes six breaks in nine matches. At this stage, it’s worth pointing out that Hurkacz looked fine in his first-round match here.
Djokovic was holding onto his own deal regularly en route to the title in Beijing, losing serve only five times in five matches, so I’m thinking tie-breaks here.
The pair have played five of them in their last 10 sets. Throw in the slick courts – the earlier court-pace data has the DecoTurf back up around 2024 levels after last season’s dip – and 7/4 about one occurring in the first set looks fair.
Alejandro Tabilo v Pablo Carreno Busta (Sat)
I think Carreno Busta is a lively outsider in this one.
The Spaniard has been rebuilding some confidence in recent times, beating Tomas Machac in quick conditions in Cincinnati, taking a set off Jiri Lehecka at the US Open and qualifying in Beijing, where Adrian Mannarino was among his victims.
In round one here, he battled past Mariano Navone in three sets. He was cramping towards the end of what was a near-three-hour encounter but a day off to recover and the best-of-three format makes that less of a concern than it might have been.
Anyway, he now gets a crack at a seed who looks vulnerable.
Tabilo has won just one of his last five matches and while he was a semi-finalist in Washington not that long ago, he’s gone just 4-6 since.
The Chilean has proved himself on hardcourts, although it might be a bit too quick for him here.
It’s also worth noting that PCB has won both their previous meetings on this surface, including one last season.
The clincher for me is the Spaniard’s impressive record against left-handers – he holds a 67% win rate against such opponent across his career, compared to 60% against righties.
Staying with more recent figures, PCB was won 12 of his last 13 against lefties (and 10 of his last 13 at tour level).
Admittedly, the one loss in that 13 came against Tabilo earlier this year, although that was on the Rome clay when the Chilean had a bunch of wins on that surface behind him.
That’s not the case coming into this one with PCB arguably the more confident player right now.
I’ll take him at 7/5.
Posted 16:20 BST on 08/10/2026
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