Andy Schooler previews Saturday’s Cincinnati Open semi-finals with his 22/1 outright pick still in the mix.
Tennis betting tips: Cincinnati Open
0.5pt Alex Zverev to beat Carlos Alcaraz at 13/8 (General)
Jannik Sinner v Terence Atmane (not before 2000 BST)
What a couple of weeks it’s been for Atmane, who had to come through qualifying to make the main draw in which he’s beaten Holger Rune, Taylor Fritz and Joao Fonseca.
The Frenchman has been fearless, serving well and showing few weaknesses.
However, if – like me – you’ve yet to profit from this sensational run, you’ve probably missed the boat.
Despite all his success, you can still back him at 10/1 here, which says it all.
Sinner is a step up from anyone these days and he’s yet to lose a set in Cincinnati. Gabriel Diallo and Adrian Mannarino did both challenge him for a period but both men were dealt with before an real pressure mounted.
I’d expect something similar here.
The world number one looks every inch the champion in making.
The potential angle here is to back Atmane on the game handicap where he gets a 5.5 head start but that’s a market I tried in Sinner’s last match and I was left with egg on my face in a major way as Felix Auger-Aliassime produced a truly dismal performance.
I know that shouldn’t impact my decision making here but the reality is it does.
In any case, while I see that as a potential angle, I’m not at all convinced it will land so I’ve no interest in this one from a betting perspective and would much rather focus on the second semi-final.
Alex Zverev v Carlos Alcaraz (not before 2300 BST)
From an outright perspective, this tournament has unfolded largely as expected.
OK, I didn’t see Atmane reaching this stage – major congratulations if you did – but the rest has been rather predictable.
Thoughts that Sinner and Alcaraz might be vulnerable early on following their post-Wimbledon break proved optimistic, while Zverev – my 22/1 alternative pick to the Big Two – has eased his way through the draw.
The German is yet to lose a set and has only dropped his serve once so far. He’s also broken more often than Alcaraz in Cincinnati – 38% to the Spaniard’s 35% - and destroyed the in-form Ben Shelton on Friday night.
That victory means Zverev has now won 16 of his last 18 matches at this venue where the slick, high-bouncing courts are ideal for his game.
However, the concern now is Zverev’s health. He called the doctor in the second set of his quarter-final.
He said afterwards: “In the first set I started feeling not so great and it got progressively worse. But I’m in the semi-finals and I’ll do everything I can to be 100 per cent tomorrow.”
It’s fair to say my outright position has me fearing the worst here but if he has recovered fully in less than 24 hours, Zverev has a decent chance of landing the upset.
He’s clearly playing well and comes into this match knowing he’s 6-5 up in the head-to-head series. Most notably, if you apply the hardcourt filter, his lead is 5-2.
OK, a couple of those matches came in 2021 before Alcaraz’s big breakthrough but he’s also 3-2 up across the last five meetings and 3-1 in the last four on this surface.
In the latter quartet, it’s very relevant that Zverev’s wins all came in fast conditions – two at the ATP Finals in Turin and the other at the Australian Open. Alcaraz’s sole victory came on the much slower courts of Indian Wells.
In those three matches on a slick hardcourt, Zverev has lost his serve only three times in eight sets and serving well will be key for him here.
Clearly his serve numbers at the tournament so far suggest that’s more than possible, while we saw on Friday how Alcaraz was made to struggle when Rublev found his groove in the second set and was virtually untouchable on serve. Alcaraz eventually came through that one but he didn’t play particularly well and was patchy at best in the decider.
Zverev seems more likely than Rublev to stay consistent on his delivery – the days of him sending down loads of double faults look over – and I can’t help but think he’s the value here at 13/8 for the win. If he’s fit.
The other angle I like comes in the ace markets. Perhaps I should tread carefully here – the two aces bets I’ve put up so far this week have both missed out by one.
However, 8/11 about Zverev serving the most here looks a good price. He’s won this bet in 10 of the previous 11 meetings and all seven played on a hardcourt. The last five margins of victory have been 3-5-2-1-5. At this tournament, Alcaraz has averaged 0.71 aces per game, a figure I’d consider pretty good, but it’s still well shy of Zverev’s of exactly 1.
I’d be backing both of those bets if I knew Zverev was fine. However, if he’s been ill all night, he’s likely going to get whipped and lose both.
After a bad few days, I can ill afford more losses so I’ll just put up a small bet on Zverev winning this – probably one you don’t need if you are already on him outright.
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