It’s four winners from five bets so far at the Cincinnati Open for our tennis man Andy Schooler. Here are his picks for round three.
Tennis betting tips: Cincinnati Open
1pt Hamad Medjedovic to serve 10+ aces v Carlos Alcaraz at 10/3 (bet365)
0.5pt Jenson Brooksby to beat Karen Khachanov at 12/5 (bet365, BetVictor)
Hamad Medjedovic v Carlos Alcaraz (Tue)
Medjedovic delivered us a winner by beating Tallon Griekspoor on Sunday and he should not be ruled out here.
The Serb has lost serve only once in two matches so far on the slick courts on Cincinnati and played some excellent shots off the ground against Griekspoor. He struggled to get over the line a bit – the Dutchman had set points to force a decider – but Medjedovic stepped up on those big points and duly won in straight sets.
On the same day, Alcaraz delivered a patchy performance against Damir Dzumhur and was well beaten in the second set before recovering to win in three.
Dzumhur’s weak serve is in great contrast to Medjedovic’s bombs and, with this being the pair’s first meeting, I can see Alcaraz struggling for rhythm in this one.
I wouldn’t rule out the upset at 6/1 and considered backing the Serb on the game handicap where he gets a 4.5-game start.
Medjedovic to win over 7.5 games also has real potential but my eye is drawn towards the aces market here.
Medjedovic has banged down 15 and 14 respectively in his first two matches of this tournament, both of which were won in straight sets.
Clearly the level of return ability increases here but I think the fact they’ve never met before is significant – it may well take Alcaraz a while to get a read on the big serve and I can see the Serb racking up some early aces.
It’s notable that Alcaraz has conceded 12+ aces in three of his last 11 matches (against Taylor Fritz, Jan-Lennard Struff and Arthur Rinderknech). Admittedly all were on grass but these are some of the fastest hardcourt conditions on the ATP Tour and Medjedovic can land similar blows.
He’s at 10/3 to serve 10+ aces and that looks a good bet to me.
Karen Khachanov v Jenson Brooksby (Tue)
I reckon Brooksby is worth chancing here at a chunky price.
OK, Khachanov is in fine form having made the Toronto final last week but his efforts may well catch up with him soon.
The Russian played back-to-back matches that went to a final set on Wednesday and Thursday and then had to head straight to Cincinnati where he began a new event on Sunday.
Qualifier Valentin Royer gave him a good test but ultimately lost 6-4 7-6. However, Brooksby is a level up and has exactly the sort of game to prey on any fatigue Khachanov is feeling – and the brutal, hot-and-humid conditions in Ohio can also take the Russian’s legs.
Brooksby’s game is about chasing down everything and this could well be another long one for Khachanov to endure.
He’ll need to serve well as Brooksby is a strong returner, albeit weaker on his own serve.
The American will therefore have taken much from the fact he held serve throughout his second-round victory over Arthur Cazaux. He should also have beaten Alexandre Muller in straight sets in the first round but made a mess of serving out the second set. It was, overall, a strong display though.
Interestingly, Brooksby allowed Khachanov only three games in their only previous meeting in Indian Wells in 2022, a match in which he went unbroken.
The faster conditions here probably suit Khachanov more but circumstances suggest Brooksby has a better chance than his odds of 12/5 imply.
Posted at 1040 BST on 11/08/25
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