Ahead of Wednesday’s play, Andy Schooler previews the fourth-round matches in Cincinnati.
Tennis betting tips: Cincinnati Open
1pt Frances Tiafoe to beat Holger Rune at 6/5 (Spreadex, Sporting Index)
Frances Tiafoe v Holger Rune
I’ve written on these pages recently abut Tiafoe’s love of the North American hardcourt swing and he hasn’t put a foot wrong so far in Cincinnati.
The in-form Roberto Carballes Baena was defeated in his opening match before Ugo Humbert – always dangerous on a fast court – was also dismissed in straight sets on Monday.
Rune has also progressed to this stage without losing a set but he’s not beaten anyone of Tiafoe’s class for several months now.
I’m also concerned about how the Dane handles the intense heat and humidity which caused so many problems during Tuesday’s matches.
He was wilting here 12 months ago when his campaign eventually ended at the hands of Tiafoe.
That match went deep into a final set and if that happens again, the conditions may well play a part.
For me, Tiafoe is tempting as the underdog here.
Taylor Fritz v Terence Atmane
Tuesday’s aces bet fell agonisingly short – Hamad Medjedovic’s total of nine aces against Carlos Alcaraz denying us a 10/3 winner by one.
The same market has potential here too.
The head-to-head record shows Atmane out-aced Fritz 14-6 when they previously met in Shanghai last year, a match won by Fritz in two tie-breaks. That is a venue which also features a pretty slick hardcourt.
That’s a significant margin but, sadly, I can’t find a ‘most aces’ market. Atmane is 6/5 to serve 10+ which is tempting, however.
He’s in form having taken down Joao Fonseca and Flavio Cobolli in the last two rounds.
However, he didn’t manage to hit the 10 mark in either of those encounters (or his first-round win over Yoshihito Nishioka) which is rather off-putting.
While this could land, we’re not getting the value we did with Medjedovic so I’ll leave it be on this occasion.
Jannik Sinner v Adrian Mannarino
Mannarino landed us a winner earlier in the tournament and his impressive form has continued, taking him into the last 16.
The veteran has always delivered his best tennis on the quicker surfaces and having beaten seeds Tomas Machac and Tommy Paul, he’ll now be ready for a shot-to-nothing here against the world number one.
Sinner will almost certainly win but he was tested in the last round by Gabriel Diallo, who forced a second-set tie-break, and I do feel Mannarino has some potential on the handicap with his attack-minded game.
He’s been serving well and that will be key for him here, especially protecting his second delivery.
You can get 22/25 about him on the game handicap getting a 6.5 start, something he’s managed to do in all three previous meetings with the Italian.
However, the last of those matches was more than two years ago and we all know how Sinner has pushed on in that period.
With such a short price, I probably need to be more convinced than I am; the brave maybe happier to give this a go.
Posted at 1035 BST on 13/08/25
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.
