Tennis’ biggest event outside the Slams gets under way on Thursday - Andy Schooler reveals his best bets for the BNP Paribas Open in Indian Wells.
Tennis betting tips: BNP Paribas Open
3pts Rafael Nadal at 3/1 (General)
0.5pt e.w. Felix Auger-Aliassime at 22/1 (General)
0.5pt e.w. Andrey Rublev at 33/1 (William Hill)
0.5pt e.w. Carlos Alcaraz at 33/1 (bet365, William Hill)
BNP Paribas Open
- Indian Wells, USA (outdoor hard)
The opening Masters 1000 event of the season is upon us – Indian Wells taking place in its scheduled spring slot for the first time in three years.
It’s worth taking a look back to that 2019 tournament, just to emphasise the huge sea change that has occurred since.
World number one at the time, Novak Djokovic, lost to Philipp Kohlschreiber, while Daniil Medevdev, seeded only 14th, won just five games in defeat to Filip Krajinovic in round three.
The final would be played out between a certain Roger Federer and Dominic Thiem with the latter landing the upset. Neither man has even played in the last nine months.
Thiem is one of three surprise winners in a row at this event. Once dominated by the Big Three, who won 13 of 14 editions between 2004 and 2017, the last three editions have been won by Juan Martin Del Potro, Dominic Thiem and, last autumn, Cameron Norrie. Each was winning his first Masters title.
So what chance another maiden winner?
Fairly high, I’d suggest, although several obstacles have been thrown in punters’ way ahead of this one.
Most prominently, we’re back in a familiar situation of not even knowing if the favourite will play.
To the surprise of many, Djokovic left his name on the entry list and was duly included in Tuesday’s draw. He clearly thinks he has a chance of gaining entry to the United States, despite his now well-known COVID vaccination status.
Still, even if he does somehow navigate what appear to be pretty clear immigration laws, backing him at 2/1 looks an odd thing to do.
** Since this preview was written, Novak Djokovic has withdrawn from both the BNP Paribas Open in Indian Wells and the Miami Open as coronavirus rules prevent him from entering the United States. **
It wasn’t a huge surprise to find the Serb was a bit rusty in Dubai when he returned to the tour last month. Jiri Vesely played well that week but a defeat to the world number 123 doesn’t fill me with hope that Djokovic can dismantle a field as strong as this – all the big names are entered.
There’s also the fact that he’s won only one of the last five individual tournaments he’s played, plus the recent split from long-time coach Marian Vaida.
Djokovic clearly isn’t going to have had much time to acclimatise either. In contrast, Rafael Nadal will have been in California for more than a week by the time he plays his first match.
And being at peace with the conditions here is pretty important.
The dry desert air means the balls fly through it pretty fast – big servers such as Milos Roanic have often performed well here – but the Plexipave court surface is slow and kicks the ball up high, offering time to player who like to line up their groundstrokes.
It’s a venue at which many of the current top 10 have struggled.
Take out Djokovic (who indeed may not play) and Nadal (who definitely will) and the other eight have just two quarter-final appearances between them.
To be fair, some of them haven’t played here too often – Jannik Sinner only made his debut last year, for example – but it’s not a good record.
It’s one which will change but there certainly looks scope for others to take advantage in the here and now.
Immediately NADAL leaps to the forefront of the conversation at a decent-looking 3/1.
After months out due to injury, during which time the Spaniard says he seriously considered retirement, few could possibly have expected the level of tennis he’s produced so far this season.
The Australian Open champion recently added the title in Acapulco – another event played on sluggish hardcourts – and is 15-0 for the year. That represents his best-ever start to a season.
As already pointed out, the 35-year-old was an early arrival in the Californian desert and he looks geared up to win what would be a fourth Indian Wells crown.
He’s been very consistent here over the years and on top of those final wins he’s also been runner-up once and reached six other semi-finals.
Nadal will know that he’s never won in Miami, the event which immediately follows, so he’s sure to be giving this everything.
He’s been helped by a kind draw, one which has placed him in the same quarter as eighth seed Casper Ruud.
It’s also the same half as Medvedev, a player he’s already beaten twice on a hardcourt in 2022.
You do wonder what effect the ongoing invasion of Ukraine will have on new world number one Medvedev.
He’s spoken against it but how an American crowd react will be interesting to say the least.
Medvedev is a character who has taken on pretty much every crowd who has turned against him in the past but I certainly see a scenario where things could get awkward for him. He spoke after the Australian Open final about how an anti-Russian feeling exists in many tennis-playing countries.
Well, things may escalate now.
Of course, the reaction could go completely the other way – clearly the Russian players have done nothing wrong – but given the potential for problems, backing Medvedev at 4/1 or shorter isn’t for me this week.
His quarter includes Stefanos Tsitsipas but it is one of the tour’s increasingly large pack of rising stars who catches the eye.
CARLOS ALCARAZ is starting to pick off ’youngest ever’ records set by Nadal and his improvement over the last 12 months has been truly exceptional.
Victory at the 500-level clay event in Rio last month took him into the world’s top 20 for the first time and the 18-year-old showed in the second half of 2021 that he’s more than capable of competing with the best on hardcourts – remember he beat Tsitsipas at the US Open where only injury stopped him in the last eight.
His only outing on hard this season came at the Australian Open where he lost to top-10 star Matteo Berrettini in a final-set tie-break but what we’ve seen from the Spaniard so far this year certainly suggests he can contend in a field such as this.
The lack of pace in the surface will suit him just fine and I’m a tad surprised to see him available at 33/1.
Moving onto the bottom half and another decent-looking price is the 22/1 being dangled about FELIX AUGER-ALIASSIME, another player to have made a flying start to 2022.
The Canadian is 15-4 over the first two months of the campaign, winning the ATP Cup with Canada in Melbourne before losing from match point up against Medvedev in the Australian Open quarter-finals.
ATP Indian Wells singles draw pic.twitter.com/PutD8aYEeC
— Michal Samulski (@MichalSamulski) March 9, 2022
However, he out that disappointment behind him by winning his maiden ATP title in Rotterdam, with the way he did so being all the more impressive given he went into the event 0-8 in tour-level finals.
FAA also made the final in Marseille and his runs have included no fewer than six wins over top-20 players.
OK, he’s among those top names who have yet to produce a deep run in Indian Wells but he did beat Tsitsipas here in 2019 and his big serve, which has really improved in terms of placement in recent times, looks well suited to that dry desert air.
Auger-Aliassime is in the same quarter as Alex Zverev, a player who notably struggled on the slow courts of Acapulco before he was thrown out for smashing his racquet on the umpire’s chair – an issue which will continue to follow him here, no doubt.
Berrettini is also in this section but none has played as well as FAA so far this season and 22/1 looks fair.
Finally, I don’t think ANDREY RUBLEV should be out at 33s given the way he’s played in recent weeks.
He arrives off the back of title runs in both Marseille and Dubai and while he’ll probably need to raise his level further if he’s to succeed here, he does look fairly well drawn.
Rublev is in the Djokovic quarter so he could quickly become the favourite to win that section.
He’s played well in big moments in recent times – four successive tie-break wins have been important – and a 14-2 record is not to be sniffed at.
❤️@AndreyRublev97 pic.twitter.com/Ul9Hg8SRvS
— ATP Tour (@atptour) February 25, 2022
Of course, Rublev is another Russian, although he was one of the country’s first sports stars to condemn the Ukraine invasion, writing ‘no war please’ on the camera after one of his matches in Dubai.
That simple statement may well make his life easier in the coming weeks and months – at least until he returns to his homeland.
His price contrasts markedly with that of his compatriot Medvedev and given that I’m prepared to take a chance on Rublev here.
Posted at 2105 GMT on 09/03/22
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