Andy Schooler previews the semi-finals of the Shanghai Rolex Masters, which take place on Satuday.
Tennis tips: Shanghai Masters
0.5pt Alex Zverev under 11.5 aces v Alejandro Davidovich Fokina at 4/5 (bet365)
Alex Zverev v Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (0930 BST)
This one has the potential to be bad for me.
I talked up Davidovich Fokina’s chances in my outright preview and he duly came through the second quarter.
He was originally in my staking plan as an each-way outright pick but was cut at the last minute as I felt backing four players in the same tournament was over the top (what was I thinking with Alex Michelsen?) Of course, as soon as you hit delete you fear what’s going to happen and, sure enough, here the Spaniard is in the semis.
The good news, for me, is that he’s very much the underdog against Zverev.
The bad news is the world number one in-waiting hasn’t been at his best in Shanghai and has had to battle his way through the past week.
Quentin Halys and Alexander Bublik both pushed him to a deciding set, while Alex de Minaur had his chances in the last round but going 0-for-5 on break points proved his undoing.
I’ve opposed Zverev in the past two rounds but it’s beginning to look like the road to the poorhouse, and I feel I can’t do it again.
In any case, I’m less convinced by ADF’s chances – he’s down 6-1 on the head-to-head.
He’s also toughed it out so far in Shanghai, needing final-set tie-breaks to get past Frances Tiafoe and Hubert Hurkacz, results which meant that Arthur Gea’s retirement against him the other day was most welcome from a fatigue perspective.
If pushed on the result, I might be tempted to back Zverev 2-1 at around 5/2 but I’m not convinced.
Instead, a venture into the aces market might be worthwhile.
Only once in those seven previous meetings has Zverev served 12 or more aces and that was the very first back in 2020 when his opponent would not have been familiar with his delivery.
Zverev has gone over 11.5 aces in two of his four matches at this tournament, although both of those were the ones that went to three sets.
Should he win this in straights – as the bookies predict – I suspect he’ll struggle to hit the 12 mark so under 11.5 is the call on a day when I’m struggling to come up with convincing picks.
Rafael Jodar v Daniil Medvedev (not before 1200 BST)
Apologies, but I’m going to start this match preview with a bit of a rant.
Running these Masters 1000 events over the best part of two weeks has become the norm in recent times and it’s fair to say it’s not proved universally popular. Far from it, in fact.
Here’s one of the reasons – the players here have each played just three matches in the opening nine days of the tournament. Now, if they want to win the event, they will need to play three in three days. That doesn’t seem great scheduling to me.
In terms of this match, the schedule may work against Jodar more.
He’s been taken to three sets in all four matches he’s played so far, including a comeback quarter-final victory over Casper Ruud on Friday. Now backing up, the youngster could be feeling it in the legs a bit.
Medvedev, however, rarely looks tired and now stands one win away from landing the place part of our 25/1 outright bet. He’s the favourite, too, albeit not by a wide margin.
Sadly, that only fills me with dread – I don’t have the exact figures to hand but I’d estimate that my ‘money match’ conversion rate is around 15% over the past 18 months and many of the players involved have gone off favourite.
The job tells me to put that to one side, ignore it and analyse only this match. In reality, that’s very hard to do. Call me weak, whatever. To me, it’s simply human nature.
When I do look solely at the match, can I see Jodar winning? Yes, of course. He’s been the breakout star of the season and while Medvedev and his team will obviously have done their analysis, the fact remains they have not met on court yet.
Is Medvedev the right favourite? Yes, I think he is. He’s enjoyed the Asian swing, going 11-1 so far, and coped well with a strong Tommy Paul performance on Friday, overcoming a disappointing second set which he lost 6-1 but in reality was a lot closer.
Paul mixed things up and enjoyed plenty of success when he came forward, as well as with some cracking winners from the back of the court. Jodar is capable of following the template – his volleys are already excellent and, unlike many of his compatriots, he’s not afraid of approaching the net.
Frankly, it could go either way and, with no need to get involved given there is already an outright interest, I’m very much happy to leave this alone.
Posted 15:15 BST on 16/10/2026
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