Friday is quarter-finals day at the Rolex Paris Masters, After an agonising near miss with a 3/1 shot on Thursday, Andy Schooler is back to preview the action.
Tennis betting tips: Paris Masters QFs
1pt Rinky Hijikata to beat Luca van Assche at 7/5 (General)
0.5pt Nuno Borges to beat Casper Ruud at 9/5 (Unibet)
Ben Shelton v Tommy Paul (1300 GMT)
I must admit I’m a little surprised to see Shelton at odds-against here.
Perhaps that makes him the bet but I’m a little reluctant to abandon Paul, having backed him for the title.
He’s certainly played well to get to this stage, dismantling Daniel Merida the other day. He’s lost serve only once in three matches so far in Paris where he is yet to lose a set.
Paul won the pair’s only previous indoor hardcourt match, which was also played on a slick court – in Dallas in 2024. Overall, the head-to-head is locked at 2-2 but Paul has had the edge in terms of points won – he’s up 78% v 75% on first-serve points won and 59-48 on second serve.
He has dealt well with Shelton’s big serve, creating 44 break points across those four matches and conceding only 17.
These stats perhaps explain why Paul is the favourite.
Shelton also had to really scrap to get past Arthur Rinderknech on Thursday – our 3/1 bet going down only in a final-set tie-break he led 4-2.
Maybe my thoughts on Shelton here are being led a little by my outright picks’ poor record in the big matches – the winner of this one will be a hot favourite to reach the final and secure an each-way profit.
However, I’m going to resist the hedge on Shelton, albeit I do have a feeling he’s overpriced here.
Luca van Assche v Rinky Hijikata (to follow)
Well done if you had Van Assche as the last remaining Frenchman in Paris – I certainly didn’t see this quarter-final coming.
However, now he is here, van Assche may well be worth opposing at the prices.
Having come through qualifying, Hijikata has now won five matches against higher-ranked opponents at this venue and I was fully in agreement with Sky Sports pundit Ryan Harrison when he said the Australian would hand-pick this surface on which to play.
Hijikata has always been at his best in faster conditions and he showed that, most notably, against Novak Djokovic in the second round. The Serb described Hijikata as “playing out of his mind”.
He added: “For players like him, who play quite flat and close to the line, it (the surface) suits him very well.”
Hijikata has also been using his slice well, keeping the ball low, and I think his game style will cause problems for the home hope, who saw off Lorenzo Musetti to reach this stage.
Across hardcourts at tour level this season, Hijikata has won 77% of his service games and 20% of return games. A combined total of 97 is better than his opponent’s (78+17=95) and I just feel that the Aussie is overpriced here at 7/5.
Taylor Fritz v Carlos Alcaraz (not before 1800 GMT)
Alcaraz leads this head-to-head 6-1 – it’s 3-1 on indoor hard – but the slick conditions have to favour Fritz and give him more than a puncher’s chance.
The American produced his best performance of the week to see off Arthur Fils on Thursday night and knows he has to keep on winning if he wants to claim one of the two remaining spots in the ATP Finals field.
A quick court should help him against a player who doesn’t like it ultra-fast, although Fritz has again complained about the balls this week, suggesting they are too slow and negate the speed of the surface. That being is his head isn’t a massive confidence-filler for those considering backing him at around 5/2.
This could be a good time – and place – to face the tournament favourite though.
I was happy to take on Alcaraz at the start of the week and he’s played only one match since I wrote that outright preview.
Alex Michelsen could easily have won the first set of that contest too – he led the first-set tie-break 4-1 only to lose six straight points in what was another frustrating near-miss for this column.
Maybe he’s undercooked in conditions that aren’t ideal for him but that strong record against Fritz puts me off taking him on here.
Casper Ruud v Nuno Borges (not before 1930 GMT)
The last quarter-final is another match-up that surely no-one would have predicted at the start of the tournament.
Conditions seem too fast for this pair, both of whom have made their name on claycourts over the years.
However, both have served well and made themselves difficult to beat – Ruud has lost serve just once, while Borges remains unbroken after three rounds.
Such has been their dominance that neither has played a match longer than 78 minutes so far.
However, the bookies make Ruud a clear favourite.
As a former Grand Slam finalist, he certainly has the pedigree but it’s worth noting that Borges beat him only last week in Basel, holding serve throughout the second and third sets.
That makes his odds of 9/5 appeal to some extent – a small bet is advised.
Posted at 09:05 GMT on 06/11/26
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