Carlos Alcaraz faces Ben Shelton in the final of the Rolex Paris Masters on Sunday afternoon – Andy Schooler previews the showdown.
Tennis betting tips: Paris Masters final
1pt Ben Shelton to beat Carlos Alcaraz at 13/4 (Betway)
1.5pt Shelton 2+ double faults at 13/8 (Betway)
0.5pt Shelton 3+ double faults at 37/10 (Unibet)
Ben Shelton v Carlos Alcaraz (1400 GMT)
For those who like their ‘fate’ theories, this final must have felt kind of inevitable.
Last week was dominated by the news that Alcaraz’s former coach Juan Carlos Ferrero would be linking up with Shelton and, sure enough, the pair will now face off for the Paris title.
One suspects Shelton has put in the call ahead of this contest, one for which he is a 3/1 outsider.
That feels a big price given the court surface here is the quickest we’ve seen for many years – court pace index readings topped 50 at one stage this week, which is pretty much unheard of.
Shelton’s big serve should be able to fend off his opponent a lot and no doubt he’ll draw plenty from having beaten the Spaniard at the US Open only a couple of months ago.
Admittedly, that is his only victory in four previous meetings – Alcaraz won the only indoor hardcourt encounter at the 2024 Laver Cup.
However, conditions are much slicker for this rematch, definitely faster than ideal for Alcaraz.
While he’s played some spectacular tennis at times – you’ve probably seen his touch cross-court shot from his quarter-final win over Taylor Fritz – his route through to this stage hasn’t been entirely convincing.
Alex Michelsen blew a 4-1 lead in a tie-break in wat was Alcaraz’s opening set of the tournament. After a walkover in the following round, Fritz had him on the ropes, failing to win two match points before losing in three. And in Saturday’s semi-finals, he dominated a below-par Casper Ruud, who has been dealing with knee problems.
Shelton has similar weapons to Fritz – big serve, big forehand – and will surely look to that template in a bid to unsettle Alcaraz in the same way he was troubled on Friday night.
If he executes well, I do believe he can win this match and the odds make this worth a punt.
There’s also an angle I like in the sub-markets – a double-faults one.
We’ve had some decent winners in this column with the serve markets over the years and hopefully backing Shelton double faults here can land another one or two.
The American is a best price of 13/8 to serve 2+ double faults, a price which appears to be based on the fact he’s served only one across his four matches so far in Paris.
However, it should also be pointed out that in 12 of his 14 matches prior to this week, he had served at least two ‘doubles’.
Now Shelton is about to face one of the best returners in the game and one sure to put a bit of extra pressure on his serve, even in these fast conditions.
Long-term readers will know I consider these markets to be all about specific match-ups – much more than recent ‘form’ – and it’s not hard to see Shelton being forced to go for that bit more pace or closer to the lines on some of his second serves. That’s when the errors tend to occur.
History shows Shelton has gone over 1.5 double faults in all four previous meetings and while some of those have been played over the best-of-five-sets format, I still think that is a significant stat.
I’ll back 2+ DFs – I’d take the odds-against quotes at bet365 and Unibet if the standout betway price disappears - and also ‘ladder’ with a smaller bet on over 2.5 at 37/10 – this has landed in three of those four previous encounters.
Posted at 08:20 GMT on 08/11/26
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