Andy Schooler brings you his best bets for Wednesday’s second-round matches at the Rolex Paris Masters.
Tennis betting tips: Paris Masters round two
1pt Lorenzo Musetti to beat Alex Zverev at 2/1 (General)
1pt Alex Michelsen (+1.5) to beat Carlos Alcaraz on the set handicap at 7/5 (betway)
Alex Zverev v Lorenzo Musetti (not before 1230 GMT)
Zverev faces a tricky opener to his title bid in Paris on Wednesday with Musetti having produced some impressive displays since moving indoors.
A couple of years ago, the Italian looked to be turning into a top player on all surfaces but injury problems have set him back.
However, there are signs he is on his way to returning to that sort of level.
He won the recent tournament in Lyon, which perhaps can explain a shock loss to Arthur Fery in Vienna last week, which came just a few days after he lifted the trophy in France. He beat top-15 stars Flavio Cobolli, Taylor Fritz and Frances Tiafoe across those two events.
Admittedly, both were played in slower conditions than those in Paris but the extra speed should help a shot which has really been firing well and that’s the serve.
Musetti has lost serve just six times in his eight matches during the current indoor swing, going unbroken in four of them.
The most recent of those was in the first round here where he bedded in nicely by edging out the dangerous Hubert Hurkacz in two tie-breaks.
Zverev is coming in colder and will be facing much quick conditions than he was playing in at the weekend in Vienna.
He lost to Alex de Minaur there, the latest in a series of three-set defeats – he was also beaten by Alejandro Davidovich Fokina in Shanghai and Novak Djokovic in Beijing.
The German has played a lot of tennis this season and, somewhat strangely, hasn’t given himself any real time off since winning the US Open. Unsurprisingly, he’s looked a little jaded of late and certainly not at his very best.
Musetti leads the head-to-head 3-2 and while none of those matches has been played on a court as quick as this, I think he’s got a decent chance of landing the upset here.
Musetti gets a 3.5-game start on the handicap but I’ll take a small slice of the 2/1 on offer about him taking down the top seed.
Alex Michelsen v Carlos Alcaraz (n/b 1800 GMT)
Ante-post favourite Alcaraz also launches his campaign on Wednesday and he’s another who just might be vulnerable early on.
Like Zverev, he’s got a significant change of conditions to deal with – his title success in Vienna on Sunday was achieved in pretty sluggish conditions.
Michelsen has a strong serve which will fizz through on these courts and that could make things awkward for the Spaniard.
It certainly did in Tokyo recently where the American managed to win the second set and forced a decider, albeit he lost in the end.
Michelsen was a quarter-finalist in Brussels a couple of weeks ago and last week was a whisker away from beating Arthur Fils in Basel, losing only in a final-set breaker.
He started this week well, taking down Vienna finalist Jiri Lehecka, which further shows how the quick turnaround into different conditions can be tough to cope with.
Basically, Michelsen is playing pretty well at the moment and I think he may well have hand-picked these conditions in which to play Alcaraz.
I’m less convinced about Michelsen’s ability to deliver the shock than Musetti’s but 7/5 about him covering the +1.5 set handicap looks worth a go – that is preferred to backing him on the game handicap where he gets a 4.5 start.
Posted at 09:35 GMT on 04/11/26
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