After backing a 2/1 winner on Wednesday, Andy Schooler brings you his best bet for the third-round matches at the Rolex Paris Masters.
Tennis betting tips: Paris Masters round three
1pt Arthur Rinderknech to beat Ben Shelton at 11/4 (Sky Bet, bet365)
Ben Shelton v Arthur Rinderknech (2nd match on Central)
Shelton looked pretty good in defeating Cam Norrie on Tuesday night but I can’t help but feel the gap in price between him and Rinderknech is too big.
Serve looks likely to dominate this encounter with two powerful first serves on show, as well as relatively poor return games – despite improvement on that front, Shelton is still down in 48th for return games won this season, a figure which flies in the face of his position as world number four.
The American does have a considerably better tie-break record in 2026 (61% v 43%), which adds further weight to the market-maker’s argument, but I’m still not sure odds of 11/4 about a Rinderknech win are justified.
He’s played well in taking down Francisco Cerundolo and Mattia Bellucci so far – he didn’t face a break point in the latter match on Wednesday.
And, notably, he didn’t face one when these two players met on the only previous occasion – at Queen’s Club last season. He won that day via two tie-breaks.
Another interesting takeaway form that match was the second-serve points won stat. Rinderknech won 68% of points behind his second deal; Shelton only 48%.
Conditions here won’t be as slick but they are still above average and I’d expect serve to hold sway a lot.
While Shelton caught the eye in his opener, it should be remembered that he was beaten by local wild card Jerome Kym in Basel just a week ago.
Kym has a similar profile to Rinderknech and out-aced Shelton 19-17.
If Rinderknech serves well in this one, I’m convinced he’ll be competitive and I can’t resist backing him at 11/4.
Posted at 20:05 GMT on 04/11/26
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