Andy Schooler brings you his best bets for the first round of the Rolex Paris Masters.
Tennis betting tips: Paris Masters round one
1pt over 12.5 games in first set of Brandon Nakashima v Matteo Berrettini at 2/1 (bet365)
1pt Arthur Rinderknech to beat Francisco Cerundolo at 2/1 (Sky Bet, Paddy Power, betway)
Brandon Nakashima v Matteo Berrettini (Tue)
I wrote in my outright preview about the unknowns relating to the conditions – last year they were slowed right down having been some or the speediest on the ATP Tour in 2024.
That co-incided with a move to a new arena in the La Defense financial district but tournament director Cedric Pioline confirmed it was a deliberate move and one which led to plenty of criticism.
Qualifying has thrown up a big of mixed data but I suspect it will be a bit faster than last year without returning to 2024 levels.
However, this is a match – and a bet – where I’m not sure it will matter too much what conditions are like, although the faster the better.
We have two big servers here and two relatively poor returners.
On hardcourts this season, Nakashima is holding 89% of the time and Berrettini 88%. On return games won, the American is at 17% and the Italian just 13%.
They’ve met twice before and breaks of serve have been at a premium – Nakashima has held 90% of the time and Berrettini 94%.
The most recent clash came in Shanghai just a few weeks ago and featured a solitary break.
The first set went to a tie-break and that looks the way to go here too given all that data.
Let’s also throw in the fact that five of Berrettini’s last seven matches have seen a first-set breaker, as well as three of Nakashima’s last six.
2/1 looks a decent price on this outcome.
Arthur Rinderknech v Francisco Cerundolo (Tue)
I like to try to pick out a value play and on the first-round coupon, Rinderknech fits the bill.
OK, I appreciate that he’s somewhat out of form following an injury which kept him out for a month but he did return last week in Basel to get some tennis into his legs.
While he lost to Jerome Kym, the match was settled by a single break of serve with the Frenchman doing well enough behind his own delivery.
Back on home soil, he should be bang up for this whereas I’m not sure what motivation Cerundolo really has this week. He’s not making the ATP Finals and doesn’t have Davis Cup at the end of the month.
I think he could be forgiven an early exit and starting his holidays. OK, he is entered in Stockholm next week but that tournament is destined for several withdrawals – many players enter in the hope it could make a difference to their ATP Finals hopes but that ship has already sailed for Cerundolo.
He certainly looked well below his best when losing to Cam Norrie in Vienna last week and he hasn’t much of a record on indoor hardcourts where the ball tends to stay lower than he’d like.
Some will point out that he recently made the semis in Brussels but he only had to beat two players from outside the top 100 to do that.
Add in the fact that Rinderknech leads their head-to-head 2-0 (he didn’t face a break point in their most recent meeting) and the outsider looks worth chancing at 2/1.
Posted at 09:55 GMT on 02/11/26
ALSO READ: Paris Masters outright preview from Andy Schooler
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