Tennis betting tips: Best bets for ATP Tour action in Vienna and Basel

Tennis betting tips: ATP Tour

1pt e.w. Hubert Hurkacz in the Swiss Indoors at 25/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes)

0.5pt e.w. Ugo Humbert in the Swiss Indoors at 28/1 (Betfred, Coral, Ladbrokes)

0.5pt e.w. Matteo Berrettini in the Erste Bank Open at 66/1 (General)

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Erste Bank Open

• Vienna, Austria (indoor hard)

Six of the world’s top 10 are in what is a stacked field in Vienna, including two of the top three.

World number one-in-waiting Alex Zverev is the top seed, followed by Carlos Alcaraz and those are also the top two in the market.

At almost twice the price, preference would be with Zverev (4/1) if forced to pick between the two.

However, the 2021 champion spoke of being jaded in Shanghai where it was also evident. He’s since had a week off but after a long, hard campaign, I do wonder whether the German has much left to give in these closing weeks of the campaign.

Even if he does, the two big targets from here have to be the ATP Finals and the Davis Cup Finals. With that world number one spot already locked in, I’m not sure motivation levels this week will be that high.

As for Alcaraz, he’s not been at his best since returning from long-term injury at the US Open.

He did manage to ease through week one in New York but was found wanting when things got tougher. Since then, he has won in Tokyo but lost unexpectedly to Zizou Bergs in Shanghai.

The Spaniard hasn’t looked completely happy with his game and the indoor season has never been Alcaraz’s strongest – conditions are not ideal, while it often comes after nine months of slog with plenty of matches under the belt. Indeed, just one of his 27 ATP titles has come indoors and that – in Rotterdam in 2025 – was in slower conditions than these.

Organisers have confirmed the same Rebound Ace surface and Dunlop balls as last year will be used and so it should be medium-fast in Vienna.

With Alcaraz just 11/5, facing a tricky opener against Karen Khachanov and being in the same half as Almaty champion Daniil Medvedev, I’m happy to swerve.

While admittedly the champion here is likely to come from those top-10 players in attendance, I’m not really keen on any of them at the odds.

Medvedev is probably the most tempting at 8/1 but he’s played a lot of tennis of late, competing in each of the last five weeks. Fatigue – or a niggle – will likely kick in at some point.

Instead, I’m going to take a punt on a real long shot in what looks the weakest quarter of the draw and that’s Q2 where the seeds are Flavio Cobolli and Alex de Minaur.

I think 66/1 about MATTEO BERRETTINI looks a bit on the large side.

The quick conditions will suit his big serve, which, alongside the forehand, has always been his major weapon.

Despite some disappointing recent form, he has been proving tough to break – his most recent matches have both been settled by a single break of serve. Kyrian Jacquet beat him on those slow Lyon courts, while Brandon Nakashima edged him out in Shanghai.

Eight missed break points across those matches tell the story and a weak return game does help explain why Berrettini is the price he is.

So, too, does the fact that he’s never made an indoor final on the ATP Tour.

That’s surprising for a player of his ability and the weapons he has, although it’s also interesting that he’s come as close in Vienna as he has anywhere of reaching such a final.

He’s a former semi-finalist here and has also made the quarter-finals in each of the last two seasons.

Tomas Martin Etcheverry, Cobolli and De Minaur doesn’t look the toughest (possible) route to the last four in this draw and I’m prepared to take a punt on the former top-10 star.

It’s not that long since Berrettini was a Roland Garros quarter-finalist and beating Arthur Fils at Wimbledon. If things click again this week – and in these conditions that’s more than possible – 66/1 could soon be an awful lot shorter.

Swiss Indoors

• Basel, Switzerland (indoor hard)

Novak Djokovic and Ben Shelton are battling for favouritism in Basel where they stick with GreenSet courts and Dunlop balls – it’s usually faster than average here.

Both players are in the top half of the draw, as is Jiri Lehecka, which means only one of the top three in most betting markets can reach the final.

That immediately makes me look towards the opposite half in search of value and one name stands out.

HUBERT HURKACZ isn’t ranked high enough to be among the seeds here these days but the 2023 runner-up has the form to contend.

He comes in off a fine Asian swing during which he reached the Chengdu final and the semis in Beijing, where injury got the better of him.

The Pole recovered in time to beat Djokovic in Shanghai where he only lost 7-6 in the third set to eventual champion Alejandro Davidovich Fokina.

His serve was broken just 12 times in the 13 matches he played across those three tournaments. Aces rained down, while the first-serve points won percentage was regularly above 80%.

I do believe he’s at his best on a slightly higher-bouncing court where the ball comes into his forehand strike zone better but the fact he’s been to the final here before suggests that’s not a massive issue.

Two of Hurkacz’s eight ATP titles have come indoors and, at 28/1, I think he’s worth a dabble to add another here.

A tough opener against second seed Arthur Fils has been avoided with Hurkacz moved in the draw following the withdrawal of Davidovich Fokina. He’ll now face Zizou Bergs first.

Fils (a possible semi-final foe) remains a threat in this section but it’s worth remembering he’s hot-footing it from Brussels where he was in semi-final action on Saturday. OK, it’s not a long distance to travel but there are different conditions to bed into and with no first-round byes, he’ll be back in action on Monday or Tuesday.

Rafael Jodar and Taylor Fritz are the other seeds in this half and I’m not convinced either has the ideal conditions for his game this week – both are yet to win indoors at tour level.

Back in the top half, Djokovic is quite capable of winning this if he replicates his form from Beijing where he won the title earlier this month.

However, he did lose first up in Shanghai (to Hurkacz) where we saw him last, likely fatigued after his efforts of the previous week.

He should be refreshed here and there won’t be any hot and humid conditions to deal with now they are back playing indoors for the rest of the season.

There is, however, another awkward opener in store with UGO HUMBERT awaiting the Serb.

I don’t tend to have too many regrets with my previews – when I look back at what I’ve written after an event, most of the time I’d do the same thing again – but a couple have combined to hurt in the past couple of weeks.

First, I deleted Davidovich Fokina from my recommended bets before he won at a huge price in Shanghai and then, last week, I put up Humbert when I wasn’t certain of conditions in Lyon.

Instead of it being pretty quick, as I (and others) had expected, it was sluggish and gave Humbert little chance.

This week, history suggests he will get his preferred conditions and I’m sure he’ll look to come forward behind his big, lefty, first serve.

His only previous meeting with Djokovic brought a heavy defeat, although that was seven years ago at Wimbledon. While he’s still got it, the current version of Djokovic is not the 2019 one.

For those who didn’t read last week’s preview, here's a reminder of Humbert's recent indoor tournament results (most recent first): L32-SF-L16-SF-RU-W-RU-L16-L32-W-W.

That’s five finals in his last 11 indoor events, plus two semi-final appearances.

One of those semis came here last year, when Fritz was among his victims, while he also reached the Basel last four in 2023.

The problem with decisions like the Davidovich Fokina one is you really do not want to do it again.

At another time, I’d have likely just mentioned Humbert as a possible bet and left it at that.

In the current circumstances, I live in fear of what will happen if I don’t back him so it’s a minimum-stakes bet at 28/1.

Posted at 19:00 GMT on 25/10/26

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