Tennis betting tips: ATP Tour Rome Masters previews and best bets
Casper Ruud heads Andy Schooler's staking plan for the Rome Masters, as preparations for the French Open intensify.
Tennis betting tips: Rome Masters
1pt e.w. Casper Ruud at 12/1 (General)
1pt e.w. Stefanos Tsitsipas at 11/1 (General)
Internazionali BNL D’Italia
- Rome, Italy (outdoor clay)
It’s now 20 years since a certain Carlos Moya won the Rome Masters.
In the ensuing period, the event has been dominated by Rafael Nadal – the man Moya now coaches – and Novak Djokovic.
Between them the pair have lifted the trophy on 16 occasions – Nadal leading the way with 10 – with only Andy Murray, Alex Zverev and, last year, Daniil Medvedev having managed to break the duopoly.
Both men are in the field this year – unlike Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz, who have both withdrawn due to injury. Djokovic is even a firm favourite with the bookies.
Yet the vibes surrounding the pair are both considerably different than when they have arrived at the Foro Italico in the past.
Nadal is still only a handful of matches into his latest injury comeback and, after the best part of 18 months out, he’s yet to hit top form.
The chances are he never will.
Now 37, the Spaniard did show encouraging signs in Madrid where he beat world number 11 Alex de Minaur and Pedro Cachin before falling to Jiri Lehecka in the last 16.
The de Minaur match showed he’s still capable of high-quality tennis but the problem now may be producing it on a consistent basis across a 10- or 11-day period, which is what he’ll need to do in Rome.
Having witnessed improvement in Madrid and seen a draw here which has been pretty kind, I wouldn’t completely rule Nadal out at a tournament he’s won 10 times in 18 visits, but odds of 14/1 still make little appeal.
As for Djokovic, he’s played only four tournaments in 2024 and hasn’t won any of them.
One wonders how problematic a long-standing arm injury is, what effect splitting with coach Goran Ivanisevic has had, and how his confidence is.
He didn’t play well at his favourite tournament, the Australian Open, in January, was stunned by Luca Nardi in Indian Wells and despite making the semis on his return to clay in Monte Carlo, his tennis was patchy and defeat to Casper Ruud came as no great surprise.
Djokovic subsequently withdrew from Madrid before heading to the practice court and making further tweaks to his off-court team.
Having watched the Serb dominate for more than a decade, we all know he’s quite capable of winning this week but flicking the switch becomes harder for even the greats towards the end of their career and I just don’t have the confidence in Djokovic right now to be backing him at 2/1.
So, who is worth siding with?
Well, first up let’s address the surprises which occurred in Madrid – Andrey Rublev emerging as champion being the biggest.
How he managed to turn around a dreadful run of form I don’t know but I have little doubt the change of conditions helped, even if only to disrupt some of those considered more likely winners at the outset.
The higher altitude in the Spanish capital always produces faster conditions and, frankly, it’s a pretty bizarre way to prepare for the French Open, now less than three weeks away. Still, it was always thus with the tennis calendar.
In Rome, we’re basically back down at sea level with conditions much more akin to those we saw in Monte Carlo and Barcelona.
Two players dominated those two events – CASPER RUUD and STEFANOS TSITSIPAS – and I see the duo as strong contenders here.
Ruud won in Barcelona and finished runner-up in Monte Carlo, where he defeated Djokovic in the last four.
And for a player who has long impressed on the forehand wing, it was interesting to hear him talk recently about improvements to his backhand, notably his backhand down the line, a shot he has used more during the current clay campaign. Match stats also show he’s hitting it harder, flatter and with more accuracy than in the past.
Ruud has long loved the clay and has made the last two finals at the French Open, yet I feel he continues to be underrated by the layers.
Clearly in good form, he also boasts a strong record in Rome, having made the semi-finals in three of the last four years.
Two of those losses came at the hands of Djokovic, although having claimed his first win over the Serb only last month, Ruud would approach any rematch – which would occur at the quarter-final stage – differently this year.
Ruud looks pretty well drawn to progress to that stage. Djokovic, on the other hand, could have tricky clashes with Alejandro Tabilo, a winner on the Challenger Tour last week, and Karen Khachanov to negotiate.
In short, Ruud looks worth a bet at 12/1.
Tsitsipas is in the other half of the draw, one led by reigning champ Medvedev.
While the Greek is probably a riskier selection, the form he showed in Monte Carlo and Barcelona was impressive and certainly considerably better than anything we’ve seen from him for a while.
It’s probably no coincidence that he’s recently split from girlfriend Paula Badosa, a relationship many outsiders blamed for a dip in form.
With almost certainly more focus now on tennis, Tsitsipas should relish a return to the Eternal City.
He was runner-up here two years ago (to Djokovic) and has two other semi-final appearances on his CV.
Three of his six defeats at the tournament have come against Djokovic and Nadal, with his other conquerors being Medvedev, Sinner and Juan Martin del Potro. Basically, it takes a good player to beat Tsitsipas here.
Cam Norrie and de Minaur lie in his path, so it’s not an easy draw, but Tsitsipas has never lost to either man on clay (he’s actually 10-1 up overall on the Aussie) and he’s been beating opponents of that calibre in recent weeks. He shouldn’t be fazed.
I’ll happily back the Greek at 11s, alongside Ruud, producing an each-way staking plan which will ensure a profit if either man reaches the final.
Fingers crossed that they both do.
Posted at 1145 BST on 07/05/24
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