Fresh from a decent French Open, Andy Schooler is back with his best outright bets for the opening week of the grasscourt season.
Tennis betting tips: ATP Tour
1pt e.w. Alex de Minaur in the Libema Open at 14/1 (Betfred)
0.5pt e.w. Kamil Majchrzak in Libema Open at 40/1 (BetVictor, Betfred)
0.5pt e.w. Soonwoo Kwon in Libema Open at 33/1 (Betfred)
1pt e.w. Lorenzo Sonego in Boss Open at 25/1 (Betfred)
0.5pt e.w. Alexander Bublik in Boss Open at 33/1 (Betfred)
Libema Open
- ‘s-Hertogenbosch, Netherlands (outdoor grass)
Grasscourt tennis has long flummoxed many top players and the opening week of play on the green stuff always gives some ‘lesser lights’ a chance to make their mark.
In this week, I’m looking for players who have proven in the past that they are happy on this uncommon surface while clearly it would also be good for those men to have shown some decent form in recent times.
The latter can be tough to find.
Many of those who love the grass also detest the clay but one man who fits the bill heading to the Rosmalen venue on the outskirts of Den Bosch is ALEX DE MINAUR.
It might not have been a spectacular success but the Australian has just enjoyed the best claycourt season of his career, reaching semi-finals in Lyon and Barcelona.
At the latter, he pushed Carlos Alcaraz harder than most, only losing 7-5 in a deciding set.
Essentially, the 23-year-old will be pleased with his form moving on a surface on which he is much happier.
Like Britons, so many Australians have played junior tennis on grass and De Minaur has shown his propensity for it at this level before.
Last season, he won the title in Eastbourne and also made the semi-finals at Queen’s Club.
In short, I’m surprised to see him at 14/1 here.
In terms of the draw, as fourth seed he has a first-round bye so will only need to win four matches – three if backing him each-way.
Admittedly, Adrian Mannarino could be an awkward opening foe – the Frenchman is technically the defending champion, although it should be noted it is three years since this tournament was staged, due to COVID-19.
A bigger issue for De Minaur is probably the presence of top seed Daniil Medvedev in his half of the draw – the pair could meet in the semis.
I was surprised that Medvedev reached the last 16 of the recent French Open, although once there he was dismantled by Marin Cilic which perhaps showed up his lack of match play in recent times – remember he’s only just back after two months out following a hernia.
The surface switch now poses new challenges and while the soon-to-be world number one will be much happier in these faster conditions, that relative lack of activity puts me off siding with him at prices no bigger than 5/2.
At more than four times the price, De Minaur is my pick in the top half.
‘s-Hertogenbosch singles & doubles draws pic.twitter.com/mEPdQ6rUet
— Michal Samulski (@MichalSamulski) June 4, 2022
In the opposite section, Felix Auger-Aliassime is the man the layers expect to reach the final.
That seems a fair assessment given he made the Stuttgart final and Halle semis on grass in 2021.
He also brings some good form having pushed Rafael Nadal to five sets in the last 16 of the French Open.
However, given he’s just a 9/2 shot, I remain wary of a player who has lost nine of the 10 finals he’s played at this level, even if he did manage to break his duck in Rotterdam earlier this season.
Taylor Fritz, Karen Khachanov and Jenson Brooksby are the other seeds in the bottom half and while all have the tools to succeed on this surface, I can’t be backing any of them at a single-figure price.
I much prefer to take them on with a couple of long shots.
KAMIL MAJCHRZAK is a player I’ve mentioned on these pages this season; indeed we had a narrow miss with him when he lost in the semi-finals in Pune where conditions are fairly fast.
He also performed well in Australia on the slick courts of Melbourne and I expect he’ll be relishing a move onto the grass – for all the talk of the grass having slowed over the years, it’s still faster than many of the courts used on the ATP Tour.
Majchrzak showed he could play on this surface last year in Nottingham, albeit at Challenger level, where he made a final and a semi-final in back-to-back weeks.
He’s improved since then and is not without a chance here.
Odds of 40/1 seems to suggest otherwise so I’m happy to take a small chance on him.
The other man worth considering is Korea’s SOONWOO KWON.
He was a semi-finalist in Eastbourne 12 months ago and looked in decent nick on the clay.
While wins were in short supply, is worth noting he took sets off Carlos Alcaraz and Albert Ramos-Vinolas.
Kwon was beaten in his first-round match at last week’s Surbiton Challenger but the fact he’s spent more than a week on the surface already has to stand him in good stead – that won’t the case with most of this field.
A minimum-stakes punt is advised.
Boss Open
- Stuttgart, Germany (outdoor grass)
It’s 6/1 the field in Stuttgart which basically means the bookies haven’t much of an idea about who will win.
Maybe one of those towards the head of the market will deliver but I’m not convinced.
The top two seeds are Stefanos Tsitsipas and Matteo Berrettini – both are easily passed over.
Tsitsipas is just 8-8 at tour level on grass and has never reached a semi-final, let alone a final.
Berrettini’s record is clearly better – he was last season’s beaten finalist at Wimbledon – but this week will bring the Italian’s first match since mid-March following surgery on his racquet hand.
Denis Shapovalov and Nick Kyrgios both warrant respect on this surface.
‘Shapo’ made the semis of Queen’s and Wimbledon in 2021 but consistency remains an issue for the Canadian, as does his tour titles tally – just one is very off-putting for punters at 6/1.
If Shapovalov frustrates, then what about Kyrgios?
He’ll serve plenty of aces whenever he plays on grass and in many ways it would be no surprise were he to surge to the title.
But, historically, backing Kyrgios at a short price has been a bad move and given he’s another one lacking match play – almost two months without one – I’m happy to move on.
Of the favourites, preference would be for Hubert Hurkacz, a Wimbledon semi-finalist, who has played pretty well on the clay in recent weeks.
Still, 6/1 isn’t big enough for me to cement that interest and instead I’ll move back to those tactics of trying to find some value lower down the betting.
ATP250 Stuttgart @theweissenhof singles & doubles draws pic.twitter.com/v1L7Q88kdM
— Michal Samulski (@MichalSamulski) June 4, 2022
Top pick on that front is LORENZO SONEGO.
Two of his four tour-level finals have come on grass – he won in Antalya in 2019 and last season finished runner-up in Eastbourne.
The sixth seed’s serve works well on the surface and he clearly enjoys playing on it.
It’s not been a great season so far but the Italian arrives off a good showing at Roland Garros where he only lost in five sets to eventual finalist Casper Ruud in round three.
His draw doesn’t look the toughest with compatriot Berrettini the other seed in his section.
Frankly, 25/1 looks too big and is worth backing.
In the opposite half of the draw, I’m going to take a punt on ALEXANDER BUBLIK.
He’s not exactly Mr Reliable but I suspect the Kazakh has been looking forward to this tournament for several weeks.
Bublik isn’t a fan of the clay, as he admitted, rather bluntly, in Monte Carlo recently.
“I hate claycourts,” he said. “I hate this surface. I hope this part of the season passes quickly and then we play on the grass.”
Well, that time has come and now his big serve will win him many more points – it immediately makes him a threat on the faster courts.
Last season on grass he made the semis of Newport, an event he was runner-up at in 2019. He was also a quarter-finalist in Eastbourne and beat Grigor Dimitrov at Wimbledon.
Denis Kudla is undoubtedly a tricky opening opponent – the American having reached the Surbiton final on grass at the weekend. However, that also means he’s got a quick turnaround here where conditions will be a little different.
Andy Murray and Tsitsipas could follow – a run which will doubtless put some off – but I still think there’s some potential in Bublik’s odds of 33/1.
He has the big-hitting game capable of doing some damage on grass and looks worth a small punt.
Published at 1625 BST on 05/06/22
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.
